Evening Market Recap: 22 Oct 2026

Thursday delivered a brutal combination: a collapse in AI spending confidence after Meta and Tesla earnings, and an acute escalation in Hormuz supply disruption risk with seven tankers damaged and Iran threatening US military bases. The result was the S&P 500's worst session since July, the Nasdaq shedding over 2.5%, and capital rotating hard into energy, bonds, and safe-haven currencies. WTI broke through $100 intraday before settling near $99.30, with Brent closing above $111.77. Gold fell through the $4,104 to $4,113 support level that had held across two previous sessions, closing around $4,050 - the level was the morning briefing's stated binary, and it broke. That break matters for Friday. The France sovereign story added a further layer, with the OAT-Bund spread widening past 160 basis points for the first time since 2011, and the French 10-year yield now trading above US Treasuries for the first time in over a decade. USD/JPY broke below 157.50 as the yen safe-haven bid dominated; GBP/JPY triggered the abort level the morning briefing had specified at 210.50. Heading into Asia, the Aramco headquarters evacuation order is the unpriced overnight catalyst - if WTI gaps above $100 and holds through Tokyo trading, the next leg higher toward $101.50 is live. Japan's September CPI and October Flash PMI data also hit tonight, with the core CPI forecast at 2.1%, which could re-energise BoJ October 30 hike speculation. The full briefing contains specific entry levels, stops, and targets across all eight instruments for the session ahead - including exactly how to position around the Japan CPI release and what EUR/CHF needs to do to confirm the France contagion trade. Subscribe to Markets Mastered for the complete playbook before Asia opens.