Evening Market Recap: 13 Aug 2026

Thursday delivered the second soft inflation print in as many days, with July PPI posting flat at 0.0% against a 0.2% consensus while jobless claims came in slightly above forecast. The combined signal - soft producer prices, a softening labour market, September hike odds now at 34% - should have been a clean continuation of Wednesday's CPI rally. Instead, gold sold off from its Asian-session high of $4,449, silver tested and briefly broke the $65.00 support zone, and EUR/USD refused to push above 1.1560 with any conviction. That gap between what the data implied and what the price did is the day's most important observation. Markets had already front-run the soft outcome overnight; when the number confirmed the thesis, there were no fresh buyers to extend it. The one position that behaved exactly as designed was USD/CAD, which continued its orderly grind toward the 1.3880 target zone with no drama, the 0th-percentile CFTC short unwinding precisely as the rate differential argument dissolved. Tomorrow brings July US retail sales at 13:30 UK time - the third major US data print in three days and the last before FOMC minutes next week. A strong consumer number would introduce uncomfortable complexity into the disinflation narrative that CPI and PPI have now spent two sessions building. The Iran situation hardened during Thursday's session, with Tehran publicly restating that the Strait remains blocked - overnight crude moves will tell you whether the market is listening. Full positioning guidance, key levels for retail sales, and the early warning signals for tomorrow's session are available in the complete evening recap.