Morning Market Briefing: 14 Aug 2026

The week ends with two significant developments arriving within hours of each other. Thursday's US Producer Price Index landed flat on the month versus the 0.2 percent consensus, with the annual rate falling to 4.7 percent from 5.5 percent in June. That gives the Federal Reserve two consecutive soft inflation prints before Jackson Hole on August 28, and markets have repriced September rate-hike odds sharply lower, now sitting near 34 percent. UK Q2 GDP came in at 0.4 percent quarter-on-quarter, exactly in line with forecasts, producing only a muted sterling reaction. The more disruptive overnight development came from Washington: Treasury Secretary Bessent and Defense Secretary Hegseth both stated the United States will maintain its naval blockade of Iran indefinitely and will announce unprecedented economic isolation measures against Tehran next week. Crude oil, which had sold off on Thursday's demand-downgrade and inventory overhang, is recovering in Asian trade on that headline. Gold is consolidating between $4,310 and $4,364 after Wednesday's two-month high, holding the structural floor that two soft inflation prints and a firming Hormuz-closure narrative have established. EUR/USD sits near 1.1510, pinned by a 5.1 billion EUR option expiry at 1.1500 through 15:00 UK time, with the 2nd percentile CFTC short book providing mechanical fuel for a post-expiry move. USD/CAD, with positioning at the 0th CFTC percentile, continues grinding toward the 1.3880 target. The session's decisive input is US retail sales at 13:30 UK time. The full briefing carries the key levels, option expiry mechanics, directional biases, and execution framework across all eight instruments. Subscribers with access to the complete analysis have a structured approach to today's 15:00 post-expiry window in EUR/USD and a clear position framework for the Bessent-driven crude trade heading into the weekend.