Morning Market Briefing: 4 Sep 2026

Markets arrive into Friday's London open in a state of productive tension. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to commercial shipping, with transit data showing near-zero passage against a normal daily throughput of around 85 vessels. That physical reality is pulling crude oil back toward $92 and beyond, overriding the political de-escalation signals that had dominated Thursday's session. At the same time, Fed Governor Waller's Thursday pivot - signalling support for holding rates steady in September - has pushed the dollar to its lowest level since May and September hike odds to roughly 50-50, giving gold a clean run toward $4,475 and opening EUR/USD for recovery above 1.1600. These two forces, a bullish crude supply story and a bearish dollar rate story, are not in conflict. Both can be right simultaneously in a session defined by geopolitical disruption and softening US data expectations. The central event that resolves today's directional uncertainty is the US Non-Farm Payrolls print at 12:30 UK time, against a consensus of 55,000 after August's negative reading. USD/JPY at 156, having shed nearly 450 pips from its 160.38 high across the week, and gold pressing toward $4,500 are the two instruments where today's most consequential moves will happen. The full briefing carries complete level-by-level analysis for all eight instruments, the precise NFP reaction framework, and four specific surprise scenarios that subscribers need to understand before the data lands.