Evening Market Recap: 1 Sep 2026

September opened with the kind of session that clarifies rather than confuses. Two oil tankers struck in the Strait of Hormuz overnight ended any lingering negotiation-hope narrative for crude, and WTI ran from the $86.30 open to a session high of $88.71, clearing the $87.57 resistance level the morning briefing had identified as the next meaningful ceiling. Brent pushed through $91. Gold told the other half of the story - the metal fell through $4,400 and reached a low near $4,325, the level one leading futures strategist had flagged as the point of no return for the medium-term bull thesis. The rate channel has now fully asserted over the safe-haven bid, and that signal matters for the next two weeks. Eurozone HICP came in at 3.3% as expected, the ISM Manufacturing PMI printed a modest miss at 54.6 against a 55.2 consensus, and JOLTS came in slightly below forecast at 7.27 million - neither dataset delivered the hawkish slam that would have triggered the USD/CHF 0.8120 breakout trade, but neither provided meaningful dovish relief either. September rate hike odds held at 65 to 68%, the 10-year Treasury yield sat at 4.77%, and USD/JPY remained anchored below 160.00 for a second session. Into Wednesday, the Asia session carries live Hormuz escalation risk, USD/JPY within 25 pips of the intervention ceiling, and gold technically exposed below $4,400 ahead of Friday's payrolls report - the single most important data print before the September 16 FOMC decision. The full briefing carries the complete instrument-by-instrument analysis, the morning call accountability review, and the precise levels that matter over the next 48 hours.