Week Ahead Briefing: 2 Aug 2026

Three weeks ago this briefing flagged the JPY short at the 2nd percentile as a structural powder keg. It is now the 0th percentile, and on Thursday night Japanese and US authorities lit the fuse. A Reuters exclusive, published early Sunday morning, confirms that Japanese Finance Minister Katayama will announce today that Tokyo and Washington conducted joint currency market intervention - the first coordinated yen operation since 2011 - after the yen collapsed to its weakest level against the dollar since 1986. The operation is described by officials as "still ongoing." USD/JPY has already moved from 163.80 toward 157.40, and with the announcement formally due on Monday morning, the week's dominant trade is clear: the 0th percentile JPY short is being systematically squeezed by coordinated government action, a hawkish BoJ Outlook Report signalling inflation will exceed 2%, and a US Treasury Secretary who has publicly called the yen "very undervalued." The pair's key levels to watch are 157.00 as immediate support for the squeeze continuation and 159.50 as the first warning that official resolve is fading. GBP/JPY near 212.20 follows the yen leg closely. Meanwhile gold is consolidating near $4,045 with the dollar under sustained pressure, WTI has retreated to $84.67 as the Iran MOU holds, and Friday's nonfarm payrolls - consensus 85,000 against a prior reading of only 57,000 - will determine whether the 63% September Fed hike probability rises to cap everything or collapses to extend the week's dollar-weakness trade. The full briefing has the complete key levels, the intervention early warning signals, the positioning breakdown across all eight instruments, and exactly what to watch for when Friday's US and Canadian employment data land simultaneously.