Morning Market Briefing: 4 Jun 2026

US equity futures are pointing sharply lower this morning after Broadcom reported a fiscal second-quarter revenue miss that sent its shares nearly 14% lower in after-hours trade, dragging the broader tech sector and ending the AI exceptionalism that had cushioned markets from the geopolitical backdrop for the better part of this week. The Nikkei fell 1.5% overnight on the combined weight of the earnings shock and renewed US-Iran hostilities, with Iran launching attacks on US naval bases in Bahrain and Kuwait on Tuesday. This morning brings a partial reversal to the geopolitical risk picture: Israel and Lebanon have agreed to a ceasefire framework contingent on Hezbollah compliance, and oil has pulled back from its three-session surge, with WTI slipping toward $95 after briefly testing above $96. The macro tone is volatile and directional conviction is low ahead of Friday's US payrolls report, where the consensus sits at 105,000 jobs. Gold is consolidating around $4,440-$4,477, caught between the safe-haven bid and the hawkish Fed, while silver faces dual pressure from Nasdaq weakness via its +0.79 correlation and the ebbing of the geopolitical premium. USD/JPY is hovering just below the 160.00 intervention tripwire with yen shorts at the most extreme crowded position of the past 52 weeks. EUR/USD near 1.1600 is the pair to watch - with the ECB widely expected to hike to 2.25% on June 11, any ceasefire-driven dollar softening gives this pair a genuine catalyst. The full briefing details the key levels, directional biases, and early warning signals across all eight instruments - including the precise trigger level in oil that will confirm whether the ceasefire story is real or another false dawn.