The session opens with the dollar at a three-month low after Treasury Secretary Bessent announced a doubling of long-term bond buyback operations on Wednesday, collapsing the 30-year yield by 9 basis points and triggering the sharpest dollar selloff in three weeks. The FOMC minutes, which arrived hawkish and confirmed that many participants see rate tightening as necessary if inflation does not fall, were simply overwhelmed by that announcement. The net result is a risk-on tone with significant caveats - the buyback takes effect only in September, the Iran war remains unresolved, and the Canada tariff deadline falls today.
Gold has recovered from last week's pullback to trade near $4,397 after touching $4,480 on Wednesday. EUR/USD sits above 1.1600 with the 2nd-percentile CFTC EUR short position still mechanically unwinding. USD/CAD faces its most important binary of the week, with the August 21 tariff deadline resolving during today's London and New York sessions - a deal accelerates the CAD short squeeze toward 1.3820, while reimposition pushes the pair back through 1.4000. WTI has retreated into the $83.50 to $85.00 range after a 4.4 million barrel inventory build challenged the supply deficit narrative.
The session's primary risk is not a new catalyst but a reversal of Wednesday's catalyst - if the 30-year yield climbs back through 5.20%, every dollar-short trade from the buyback announcement faces a rapid unwind. Watch that yield, watch the Canada tariff headlines, and watch EUR/USD at 1.1570 as the line that separates a continuation session from a correction session. Full directional biases, specific entry levels, key stops, and the Canada binary framework are in today's full briefing.