Markets arrive at today's London open with a single event dominating the entire week's direction: the Federal Reserve's rate decision and dot plot, due at 14:00 ET - 19:00 UK. A 25-basis-point hike is priced at approximately 87%, so the vote itself changes little. Chair Warsh's language around the pace of future tightening is where today's volatility will originate.
Overlaying this is UK August CPI, released at 07:00 this morning and expected above 3% due to energy and fuel price pressures - the data feeds directly into tomorrow's Bank of England decision at noon, where a hold is the consensus but the 6-3 MPC split leaves a surprise hike closer than markets are pricing.
WTI crude has pulled back technically from Tuesday's four-month highs near $105.50 to around $104.68, but the supply case has intensified: the IEA has removed a further 1.4 million barrels per day from its 2026 global supply forecast and no longer expects normal Gulf flows to return this year. That is not a number the market has fully absorbed. The pullback is an entry, not a trend change. USD/JPY at 155.37 is approaching the short reload zone with an 80% BOJ hike probability for Friday - the rate differential narrows from both sides simultaneously this week, and any post-Fed dollar spike toward 157 is likely the final opportunity to build the yen long before Friday's catalyst delivers. EUR/USD at 8th-percentile CFTC positioning against a 92nd-percentile USD long is the week's most explosive asymmetric setup if Warsh's dot plot carries any dovish nuance. The full briefing covers today's specific entry levels, key levels to defend, the exact post-Fed setups across all five forex pairs, and three surprise scenarios that could make today significantly more volatile than a textbook hike day. Subscribe to Markets Mastered for the complete picture before every London open.