How The Day Played Out
The session opened with two competing forces that have defined every trading day since Tuesday night: oil carrying the geopolitical weight of an active bilateral military campaign, and technology pulling in the opposite direction on its own AI-demand logic. For roughly the first two hours of London trade, the tension between those forces produced a cautious, directionless tone. Then the market made its choice. Semiconductors won.
A resurgence in giant chipmakers powered a rebound on Wall Street, with the Nasdaq 100 adding 1.5% and a gauge of semiconductor firms climbing 4.5%. Stocks rose on Thursday, supported by a jump in semiconductors and a fall in oil prices. The Nasdaq Composite gained 1.1%, the S&P 500 rose 0.7%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 161 points or 0.3%.
The catalyst behind the chip move was specific and meaningful. SK Hynix shares surged over 8% during Asian trading, rebounding from recent geopolitical sell-offs, following a seven-fold oversubscription for its $28 billion US ADR IPO set for July 10. That subscription figure is the single most important number in today's tech narrative - it tells you that institutional capital has not abandoned the AI memory trade despite three consecutive days of geopolitical-driven risk aversion. The market treated that demand signal as permission to rotate back into semiconductors broadly.
Oil told a different story. Brent fell toward $77 per barrel on Thursday, snapping a two-day rally even after the US military confirmed it had carried out strikes on Iran for a second straight day, intensifying tensions and fueling concerns over energy supplies from the Middle East. The pullback from yesterday's session highs - which had briefly breached $80 intraday - is not a reversal of the geopolitical premium. It is a market reassessing the pace of that repricing. Vessel tracking data showed fewer transits through the strait, with most visible traffic moving along routes approved by Iran, while substantial volumes of crude had continued moving through Hormuz before the ceasefire, with some shipments only appearing in tracking data days later because of weak or disabled signals. That ambiguity in actual flow data gave traders room to take some of Wednesday's 7.85% gain off the table.
The session's most important Fed communication came from New York Fed President John Williams, a permanent FOMC voter. The morning briefing had flagged his remarks as the key scheduled risk event. He delivered a nuanced message in two parts. First, on energy: Williams said that despite the renewal of war in the Middle East, he was not looking for a sustained rise in energy prices over the remainder of the year, noting that "the markets still expect oil prices to come down over the next six to 12 months" and calling that "a pretty reasonable baseline." That framing is materially more sanguine than what the market had been pricing after Wednesday's hawkish FOMC minutes. Second, on AI-driven inflation - and this is the part that requires attention: Williams said that among the drivers of inflation in the US, he is most focused on demand driven by artificial intelligence, and that if that demand persists, it could force the central bank to raise interest rates. He indicated that core PCE running at 0.2% monthly in the second half of 2026 would be consistent with a disinflationary process continuing, but anything higher would signal persistent inflation. Williams has effectively moved the conversation from the oil shock - which he is inclined to look through - to AI demand as the next potential inflation catalyst. That is a meaningful shift in the committee's framing that gold and rate-sensitive pairs will need to absorb.
US jobless claims for the week ended July 4 came in at 215,000, down 4,000 from the prior period for the lowest total since May 23, below the 218,000 economists had expected. A tighter claims print than forecast removes one potential brake on the Fed's hiking calculus and is modestly dollar-supportive at the margin.
BREAKING - Iran's retaliatory strikes expanded geographically during the New York session. Iran fired 10 ballistic missiles at a US military base in northern Jordan, with the Jordanian government confirming it had intercepted Iranian missiles that breached the country's airspace and triggered air raid sirens. This development - confirmed within the last two hours - represents a material escalation. The previous briefing's institutional pressure watchlist specifically flagged the risk of conflict expanding beyond Bahrain and Kuwait. Jordan's airspace has now been penetrated. The implications for the overnight session are significant: a third consecutive round of US strikes becomes considerably more likely, and the argument that this conflict is being contained to a limited bilateral exchange becomes harder to sustain.
At the NATO summit in Ankara, Trump capped proceedings by saying the ceasefire with Iran is over and warning that the US would respond further. Trump told reporters that after the US began attacking Iran again, Tehran contacted US officials seeking a new deal - but Trump said he didn't know if the country was "worthy of making a deal." The simultaneous signals - Iran reaching out while also firing ballistic missiles into Jordan - are not contradictory. They are a negotiating posture under fire, and markets should not mistake a diplomatic feeler for a ceasefire.
Key Moves And Levels
Wti Crude Oil
The morning briefing called for a pullback entry toward $73.00-$73.50 during the London session, with oil having pushed above $75.00 on the previous session's 7.85% spike. That pullback arrived. Brent's current price is near $78.59 with today's range spanning $76.77 to $79.54. WTI has traded in a corresponding range, with WTI at approximately $73.42 on the intraday board, down modestly on the session.
The intraday low in WTI came close to, but did not convincingly test, the $73.00-$73.50 entry zone the morning briefing identified. Those who waited for a deeper pullback were not offered the ideal level. Those who were already positioned from Wednesday's breakout above $72 have seen the position consolidate rather than extend - which, given the binary headline risk, is the correct outcome for a sensibly sized position.
Trump declared that in his view the ceasefire is over and warned of additional military action against Iran, including a new blockade. He also cautioned that oil prices could climb further and said future strikes may target Iran's key export terminal on Kharg Island. If that threat materialises, $80 Brent is not a ceiling - it is a staging post. Kharg Island handles the majority of Iran's crude export loading; a strike there would remove Iranian production capacity from global markets in a way that coastal military infrastructure strikes do not. The Jordan missile interception reported in the last hour increases the probability of further US action tonight.
Brent's intraday high of $79.54 breached the $79.50 resistance zone briefly but could not hold it on a session close basis. That level - now the immediate cap - needs to be reclaimed and held before the $80.00 target becomes a live trade rather than a headline risk scenario.
XAU/USD GOLD
Gold finally did what the morning briefing said it would do on a genuine dollar softening: it caught up. Gold staged a modest rebound on Thursday, setting aside a three-day losing streak and managing to surpass the $4,100 mark per troy ounce, though steady geopolitical tensions have revived concerns over persistently high global inflation, reinforcing expectations of higher rates and somewhat curtailing the yellow metal's upside. Today's range ran from $4,054 to $4,122, with the current exchange rate in the $4,115-$4,116 area.
The morning briefing's watch-and-react framework specified waiting for a confirmed 30-minute close above $4,080 before engaging on the long side. That trigger was cleared during the London session as the dollar softened modestly in response to Williams' dovish-leaning energy comments. Gold's recovery from Wednesday's close near $4,030-$4,035 to a session high above $4,120 represents a catch-up move of approximately $85-$90, precisely the pattern the briefing described as the likely character of any reversal.
Critically, the move has stalled at the $4,100-$4,120 zone. The morning briefing identified $4,100-$4,120 as the resistance level that would need to be cleared on a London close basis for the safe-haven bid to assert structural credibility. The session has tested that zone from below but not convincingly broken it. The late-session Jordan news introduces fresh geopolitical urgency that could push gold above $4,120 into the New York close - or conversely, if the dollar strengthens on the back of that news, the $4,080 level becomes the new floor to watch.
XAG/USD SILVER
Silver's recovery has been tentative but real. The current XAG/USD rate is near $60.33, with today's range from $57.59 to $60.62. The intraday low breached the $59.00 level the morning briefing identified as the line below which $57.00-$57.50 would open. That breach occurred early in the London session before the semiconductor rally pulled silver higher through the tech correlation channel.
The Gold/Silver ratio stands at 69.44 on Thursday, down from 69.89 on Wednesday - a marginal improvement in silver's relative performance, but not a structural reversal. The morning briefing's instruction to stay out of silver as an active trade remains the correct posture. The metal is recovering because semiconductors recovered, not because any of the bearish structural factors - 66% September rate-hike probability, dollar strength, disrupted industrial demand signals - have resolved.
USD/JPY
USD/JPY fell to 162.37 on July 9, down 0.13% from the previous session. The pair has drifted lower through the day, pulled down by the dollar's modest softening as Williams' energy price commentary reduced the most acute rate-hike fears. The pair traded around 162.50 during the session, with traders maintaining bearish positions on the yen amid the absence of intervention from Japanese authorities despite repeated warnings from Tokyo.
The morning briefing's asymmetric short framework - entered at 162.30-162.50 with a stop above 163.00 and a target of 161.00-161.50 - has seen modest progress on the downside, with the pair now below 162.40. The intervention ceiling has not been tested today. The Jordan missile development in the final hour of New York trade creates a complicating overnight risk: a third wave of US strikes could drive a safe-haven dollar bid that pushes USD/JPY back toward 162.80-163.00, while simultaneously the geopolitical severity could trigger the yen's own safe-haven properties. The outcome of that collision - which force dominates - is genuinely uncertain and should keep position sizing conservative through the Asian open.
Investors are now awaiting official intervention data later this month to determine whether the government was behind the yen's sharp but short-lived rally on July 2. Separately, Japan's government revised its latest draft of the annual policy agenda, calling for appropriate monetary policy that supports stable price growth.
GBP/JPY
GBP/JPY is trading at approximately 216.54, down 0.18% on the session. The cross has maintained its core range through another day of unresolved CFTC positioning extremes in both legs. Sterling has been modestly supported by the dollar's intraday softening - GBP/USD is trading near 1.3371 - but the Iran escalation continues to apply a risk-discount to the pound that prevents any clean move toward the 217.50 resistance the morning briefing identified. The pair remains contained within the 215-217 range that has defined the week. The Jordan development introduces the possibility of a sharper yen safe-haven move overnight that would push GBP/JPY lower, potentially testing 214.50.
EUR/USD
EUR/USD has kept a bid bias on Thursday, meeting tough resistance around 1.1450, with the pair's advance following the bearish tone in the US dollar despite escalating Middle East tensions and a broad-based cautious stance from market participants. EUR/USD is trading near 1.1431, down 0.14% on the session.
The morning briefing's 1.1380 early warning level was never tested today. The dollar's softening - driven by Williams' relatively sanguine energy price outlook - provided EUR/USD with relief from the sustained pressure of the past two sessions. The 1.1450 resistance has acted as a cap, which is consistent with the morning briefing's framework. The pair remains fundamentally constrained by the ECB-Fed rate differential: in June the euro weakened against the US dollar further as the ECB raised its deposit rate by 25bps to 2.25%, its first hike since September 2023, against a Fed still holding at 3.50%-3.75% with a hawkish lean. Until that differential narrows materially, EUR/USD rallies toward 1.1480-1.1500 will face institutional resistance.
USD/CAD
USD/CAD is tracking near 1.4200, having been pulled in two directions all session by falling oil and a softening dollar. The oil pullback from Wednesday's spike - Brent down from near $80 intraday to $77-$78 - has reduced the commodity-channel tailwind for the Canadian dollar. The dollar's broader softening has offset that partially. The net result is a pair that has done essentially nothing for the second consecutive session despite an oil move of historic proportions over the past 48 hours.
The morning briefing's analysis of the unstable equilibrium between oil and the dollar safe-haven bid remains precisely accurate. The mechanical CAD short-covering trade - flagged for the 12th-percentile CFTC positioning - has still not materialised in full. If tonight's US response to the Jordan missile incident drives oil sharply higher through a third night of strikes, and if that oil move finally overwhelms the dollar bid, the move toward 1.4100 could happen rapidly and without the gradual setup that would allow disciplined entry. Watch the overnight Brent level closely.
USD/CHF
USD/CHF is trading near 0.8064, down 0.16% on the session, having softened modestly alongside the broader dollar index as Williams' comments temporarily reduced the urgency of rate-hike pricing. The USDCHF-XAUUSD correlation of -0.64 has worked cleanly today: gold up, USD/CHF down. The pair remains well within the 0.8060-0.8100 consolidation zone the morning briefing identified. No decisive signal in either direction has emerged.
The SNB's stated readiness to intervene against excessive franc appreciation remains the structural cap on CHF upside. The SNB reiterated its readiness to act if necessary and emphasised willingness to intervene in foreign exchange markets to counter excessive Swiss franc appreciation, standing prepared to adjust policy should conditions deviate materially. With USD/CHF already below 0.8080 and the conflict expanding, the tension between the SNB's intervention bias and genuine geopolitical safe-haven demand for the franc is the key dynamic to monitor overnight.
Morning Calls Review
The morning briefing's most important structural call - the watch-and-react framework on gold - has been validated by today's session. The briefing prescribed waiting for a confirmed 30-minute close above $4,080 before engaging long, and explicitly warned that the first genuine dollar softening would produce a catch-up move above $4,100. The dollar softened modestly after Williams' energy comments, gold cleared $4,080 and ran to a session high above $4,120. Traders who followed the framework rather than attempting to position ahead of it captured the move cleanly. This is the third consecutive session where the conditional logic - wait for the signal, then act - has outperformed anticipatory positioning.
The oil call requires an honest assessment. The briefing prescribed a pullback entry toward $73.00-$73.50 as the disciplined approach rather than chasing the extension of Wednesday's 7.85% move. WTI's intraday low today came close to that zone but did not offer a sustained test at that level before recovering. Traders who set limit orders in the $73.00-$73.50 range may not have been filled, while those who entered the London open on continuation of the trend from Wednesday's close have seen a consolidating, not extending, position. Neither outcome represents a loss of thesis - the briefing correctly anticipated consolidation after the spike - but the practical execution challenge of catching the pullback in a fast-moving market was real.
The USD/JPY asymmetric short framework - entered at 162.30-162.50 with a stop above 163.00 - has seen modest progress today, with the pair drifting to 162.37. The position has not been stopped out, has not yet reached the 161.00-161.50 target, and remains live. The briefing's risk framework was correctly set.
The silver stay-out call was correct again. The metal's intraday low breached $57.59 before recovering above $60.00. Active trading in silver at current levels would have exposed traders to a $2.50-plus intraday swing for limited structural conviction.
The EUR/USD early warning at 1.1380 did not need to be exercised today. The briefing correctly assessed this as a monitoring level rather than a trading level, and the dollar's softening removed the immediate pressure without requiring any defensive action.
Positioning Into Tomorrow
The overnight risk landscape has deteriorated in the final hour of today's New York session. Iran fired 10 ballistic missiles at a US military base in northern Jordan, with the Jordanian government confirming interception of the missiles and activation of air raid sirens. This is a geographic expansion of the conflict beyond Bahrain and Kuwait into a US treaty ally with a different strategic significance. Jordan's stability matters to the entire regional security architecture in a way that Bahrain and Kuwait's air defence responses do not.
Iranian forces are still able to fire back, sending missiles and drones toward US bases across the region, and experts say the latest attacks likely won't remove Iran's ability to threaten shipping in one of the world's most important energy arteries. That assessment should anchor overnight expectations: US strikes have degraded Iranian capability but have not eliminated it. A third consecutive night of US strikes - now considerably more likely following the Jordan incident - would open the Asian session with fresh geopolitical shock.
Market focus shifts to the July 10 Nasdaq debut of SK Hynix, and a strong ADR premium performance could catalyse a broader rally in Asia-Pacific semiconductor equities throughout the second half of the year. The seven-fold oversubscription of the $28 billion US ADR issue creates clear upside optionality for the Asian chip sector tomorrow. However, if the Jordan escalation drives oil sharply higher overnight and the AI premium narrative is overwhelmed by a macro risk-off signal into the open, the IPO's market debut could see a more muted reception than the oversubscription implies.
For oil, the key overnight watch is whether any CENTCOM statement confirms a third strike wave. Brent holding above $77 into the Asian close would maintain the bullish structure. A confirmed third night of strikes would likely push Brent toward $80 again in thin Asia liquidity. Watch Hormuz vessel tracking data for any sign of additional commercial ships being targeted.
For USD/JPY, the Jordan development creates the most acute overnight risk in the briefing's coverage universe. Surging WTI crude oil prices, exceeding $75 per barrel due to geopolitical tensions, pose significant risks to energy-dependent economies in Japan and South Korea. Higher energy costs threaten to impair corporate profitability and exacerbate domestic inflationary pressures. A scenario where Japanese equities open sharply lower on the Jordan headlines - amplifying the yen's safe-haven demand at precisely the level where MoF intervention is live - remains the highest-conviction asymmetric risk in the overnight session.
The next scheduled macro catalyst of genuine significance is US CPI on July 14, followed by Chair Warsh's congressional testimony on the same day. July 14 brings June CPI, congressional testimony from Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh, and earnings from JPMorgan, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup. Until that data, Williams' AI inflation framing and his relatively sanguine energy view will define the market's interpretation of the Fed's reaction function. Tomorrow's Delta Air Lines Q2 earnings will give a real-time read on whether fuel cost pass-through to consumers is already accelerating.
Chris Weston at Pepperstone noted the market still appears skewed toward the view that the Iran conflict ultimately de-escalates and negotiations resume around the MOU, but that "traders understand the need to remain open-minded" as "the situation remains highly fluid, and conviction around timing is exceptionally difficult." That framing captures tonight's position well. The Jordan missile intercept has moved the distribution of outcomes to the left. Be sized for uncertainty, not for certainty.
Markets Mastered - Today's Takeaway
Williams told markets today that AI demand, not oil shocks, is his primary inflation concern - that distinction matters because it shifts the rate-hike trigger from something unpredictable and geopolitically driven to something trackable through core PCE prints, and that changes how you interpret the July 14 CPI release entirely.
The SK Hynix seven-fold oversubscription confirms what the chip recovery in Asia said Wednesday: institutional capital has not abandoned the AI memory trade, and the semiconductor sector's ability to outperform against an oil-shock backdrop is now the most important cross-asset theme in the market.
Gold's catch-up today - from $4,030 to $4,120 on the first meaningful dollar softening - proves the watch-and-react framework is not passive; it is simply the discipline of letting the market show its hand before committing capital, and today it delivered 90 points in a clean directional move.
Iran's ballistic missiles reaching Jordan tonight mean the overnight session carries the highest geopolitical risk of this week - size conservatively, hold the key levels you identified this morning, and do not let tonight's news flow tempt you into trades that require a specific outcome to work.