Monday's session opened with maximum geopolitical risk premium and closed with most of it unwound. Iran's declaration of an end to military operations against Israel, arriving around 7am New York time, reversed a more than 4% overnight surge in WTI crude, sent equities into recovery mode and capped the dollar's advance before it could reach the 100.00 level on the index. The Nasdaq recovered 1.5% as chip stocks stabilised, gold managed a shallow bounce off its yearly open support around $4,280-$4,319, and USD/JPY spent the entire session consolidating tightly above 160.00 without testing the intervention threshold at 160.50-161.00 that the morning had flagged as the primary risk.
The level that mattered most today was $4,280-$4,300 in gold. The session low of $4,268 tested it, held it, and recovered to close around $4,338. That is technically significant because it represents the yearly open support, and gold's refusal to break it - even with the dollar at two-month highs and rate hike odds firming - suggests physical demand is beginning to compete with the paper selling pressure. Whether that holds is Wednesday's question.
Goldman Sachs pushed its Fed rate cut forecast to 2027 during the London session, a development that will amplify the market's reaction to May CPI data arriving Wednesday alongside the Bank of Canada decision and a 10-year Treasury auction. That is a genuinely crowded macro calendar, and the ECB follows on Thursday. The full Markets Mastered evening recap carries complete level-by-level analysis across all eight instruments, the specific CPI scenario frameworks that will move each pair, and the exact early warning signals to watch in the Asia and London sessions tomorrow.