Evening Market Recap: 28 Aug 2026

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh used his Jackson Hole debut to warn that inflation has not shown meaningful underlying improvement, hinting that rates may need to move higher, and markets moved decisively in response. A majority of investors now expect a rate hike in September, a significant shift from the one-in-three probability that had prevailed at the week's start. Gold fell 1.63% to $4,535, the 10-year Treasury yield pushed to 4.70%, and EUR/USD fell to seven-day lows in the sub-1.1600 area. USD/JPY pressed toward the 160.00 intervention ceiling for the fifth consecutive day. The $4,568 stop level in gold that this morning's briefing had identified as the line that changes the trade was broken within minutes of the speech concluding. The BLS benchmark revision came in at -79,000 jobs through March, a clean miss against a consensus expecting a positive revision, though the labour data failed to offset the hawkish central bank tone. Into next week, the USD/JPY intervention risk at 160.00 is now the market's single most dangerous overnight level, while the September 4 payrolls report has become the decisive pre-FOMC data point. The full briefing covers exactly where gold's next support sits, which currency pair carries the most asymmetric risk going into the September 16 FOMC decision, and how to manage the EUR/USD structural long that today's session tested but did not invalidate. That analysis is available to Markets Mastered subscribers.