Thursday, September 10 will be remembered as the session WTI crossed $100 and stayed there. The move was not a data-driven spike or a single-headline gap - it was the cumulative weight of Hormuz flows plunging below two million barrels per day, Iran's largest-ever shipping assault carried into Thursday morning, and a Trump warning about suspected nuclear reconstitution at Pickaxe Mountain that added a dimension to the conflict the market had not been pricing. Brent reached $105.20 during New York hours. The $95 level that was last week's target is now firm support.
The ECB delivered its expected 25-basis-point hike but Lagarde's press conference produced the least actionable outcome - deliberate ambiguity on December, a mildly hawkish tone, and no clean signal in either direction. EUR/USD closed around 1.1627, essentially in the middle of the range the morning briefing defined. US PPI came in at 5.4% year-on-year, pushing Fed hike odds from 62% to 70% and driving the ten-year yield to 4.92%, its highest since 2023. Gold held its $4,400 floor but could not advance against that yield pressure. USD/JPY stabilised near 153.40, still within reach of the 153.00 structural target that now waits on Friday's CPI.
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