Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Wednesday 1st August 2018

08:50am   I am sending the next couple of days here at home doing some chart watching and catching up on Skype calls/emails ahead of a week’s holiday starting on Friday.

Market Update:

European and U.S. markets rose on Tuesday after reports circulated that China and the U.S. are in the process of organising talks in an attempt to diffuse the current impasse regarding trade tariffs. Both the Dow Jones 30 and S&P-500 posted their largest monthly gains since January and the Nasdaq tech index also finished the month ahead by over 2%, these rises across the board are attributed to bullish corporate earnings together with strong economic data for July.

The overnight Asian trading session closed fairly positively on news regarding the possible U.S./China trade talks, the Japanese Nikkei-225 index finished the day 193 points up at 22,746.71 on a falling Yen which helped exporters so Car Manufacturers were major winners of the session together with banks.  Both Chinese bourses ended negatively however as traders were wary of trade tariff rumours which had initially boosted the markets.

Oil took a hit yesterday as U.S. crude stock showed an unexpected rise, WTI Crude fell $1.62 by the close last night to $67.98 and is a few cents lower this morning as today’s official Weekly U.S. Crude Oil Inventories are going to confirm these figures.  Brent Crude has fallen over 6% in value in July, its biggest monthly drop since this time two years ago.  Gold ended Tuesday’s session fairly flat and seems to have halted the decline that has affected the yellow metal since April and there is not expected to be much trading volume today until the Federal Reserve release their meeting minutes at 19:00 GMT tonight.

Trading Diary:

09:10am    I am in a ‘long’ position on my 30-min GOLD chart, it’s a Master-The-Reversal UTB pattern with a reasonable 20 pip stop loss.

09:55am   Just taken a quick +21 pip profit from the GOLD position.

10:25am  Nothing much on my charts currently so I am off for a 20-mile cycle ride.

13:50pm   I have scanned my charts now I’m back from lunch and there’s nothing much happening at the moment so I am going to switch my screens off and go an enjoy the sunshine. Back here normal time tomorrow.

Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Tuesday 31st July 2018

08:30am   Spending the day here at home doing some chart watching so any trades I take will be detailed below in my Trading Diary.

Market Update:

U.S. equity markets were heavily affected by the decline in tech stocks yesterday, the Nasdaq was down by 1.4% to 7,630 after shares in Amazon, Alphabet, Facebook and Netflix fell between 1.8% and 5.7%. This bearish sentiment in the technology sector began last week after Facebook dropped 19% in one session on concerns over faltering revenues and this has affected other large tech companies over the last three sessions.  The S&P-500 ended on Monday evening at 2,802.60, down 16.22 points (-0.58%) and the narrower Dow Jones 30 index was down a similiar percentage after news emerged that the European Union, Canada, Japan, Mexico and South Korea are all meeting next week to discuss potential repercussions to Trump’s trade tariffs.

The overnight Asian trading session closed mixed to positive with the Japanese Nikkei-225 index managing to end up slightly at +0.04% after the Bank Of Japan announced they were keeping their monetary policy steady. The Shanghai Composite, ASX-200 and South Korean Kospi also finished in positive territory after a shaky start.

Oil markets ended Monday’s session on a positive note, Brent Crude closed up by 68 cents at $75:49 although there is a negative slant this  morning after an OPEC report has revealed their output has risen in July to its highest for 2018.  Output reached 32.62 million barrels per day in July, a rise of over 70,000 barrels per day although a cut in production looks likely for August/September to keep values in check.

Gold is on the decline once again and looks to be heading for the minor support area around $1212 (currently $1218:57) if it does fall that far today you can expect a small bullish reversal.

Trading Diary:

15:25pm   Although I had originally planned to be at home all day, I’ve been out for most of it but I will be watching my charts now for a few hours so I will let you know if I do end up taking any trades.

16:10pm     Just taken a ‘long’ position on my 15-min GOLD chart, it’s a Master-The-Trend Strategy-B set-up with a 19 pip stop loss.

17:40pm    Just closed off my GOLD position at 1228.24 which is right on the 10-day moving average where price has found resistance previously. My score is +64 pips giving me a grand total for July of +356 pips.

Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Thursday 26th July 2018

08:15am   My plan today is to do some chart watching while catching up on emails and other admin here at home, any trades I take will be detailed in my Trading Diary below.

Market Update:

U.S. markets were given a boost at the end of Wednesday’s session as President Trump obtained concessions from the European Union which looks as it could avoid a trade war. The Dow Jones 30 index erased earlier losses and closed 172.17 points higher at 25,414.10 (+0.68%) and the wider S&P-500 ended slightly higher in percentage terms at+0.91%.  The Nasdaq Composite also had a positive session after Alphabet (Google), Amazon and Facebook shares all rose, the index as a whole climbed by 1.2%to finish at 7,932.24 – an all time high.

The overnight Asian trading session ended mainly down despite the early bullish showing in the U.S., the main Chinese indices fell the most during their afternoon with financial, motor, oil and property sectors showing the biggest drops.  The Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite experienced the largest falls of the region with 0.8%drops and other markets just marginally down by around 0.01%.

Oil markets had another positive day on Wednesday after Saudi Arabia said it was halting crude shipments through one of the Red Sea shipping lanes after a Houthi-led attack two ships. Brent Crude finished the session up by 71 cents at $74.78 having climbed steadily over the past two weeks from a base at $71.25 and is now sitting at the 50-day moving average ($74.96) so we may see some trading opportunities this morning.

Gold has fallen this morning as predicted in my Trading-Guidance sheet earlier, it touched a minor support/resistance level at $1236 overnight and has moved down to $1227.88. Trade tensions between the U.S. and Europe are dissipating which is also prompting some selling so we may see a return to the $1210 level that we saw last week.

Trading Diary:

09:40am   I have just entered a ‘short’ position on my UK FTSE-100 15-min chart using the Master-The-Trend Strategy-B pattern, my stop loss is whopping 8 pips.

11:15am   I have returned from a very short but hot cycle ride to find my FTSE position has been stopped out at -8 pips. Nothing else to get excited about on my charts for the moment.

12:45pm    I am now in a ‘long’ DAX-30 position, details soon.

12:55pm    The latest trade is another Master-The-Trend pattern but a Strategy-A this time on the 30-min timeframe. My stop loss is 16 pips.

14:50pm  The price on my DAX-30 chart has just hit the ‘big’ number of 12,800 so I have taken it as a signal to close off my position, this gives me a +74 pip profit and a total for the day of +66 pips and a running total for July of +292 pips.  Time to shut my screens for the day, I may be back here tomorrow although we may just head towards the coast for a few days.

Trading Diary & Market Update~ Tuesday 24th July 2018

09:50am    Back home and planning a quiet day catching up on email and doing some chart watching as well.  Any trades I take will be detailed below in my Trading Diary, nothing to report so far.

Market Update:

Technology shares helped U.S. equity markets close higher on Monday, the S&P-500 was up 5.15 points to 2806.98 although the Dow Jones index of 30 leading companies failed to follow suit and closed down at 25,044.29 (-0.06%).  There are quite a lot of companies reporting second results this week and expectations are high for earnings above analysts expectations. Google (Alphabet) shares rose just over 4% after releasing better than expected results and traders are now waiting for numbers from Facebook and Amazon later in the week.

The overnight Asian trading session was upbeat on the whole with the Chinese Shanghai Composite finishing with the biggest gains, it closed up 1.62% at 2905.94 and its sister index, the Hang Seng was close behind at+1.44%. These gains were mainly due to increased buying after the Chinese State Council announced they were going to engage in a more vigorous fiscal policy as their economy retracts.

Oil markets are cooling as previous concerns regarding high production causing oversupply are waning, Brent Crude rose yesterday to its 20-day moving average were it promptly reversed and closed slightly down on the day at $73.19 although there has been some limited futures buying this morning and the price is up 22 cents on last night’s level.  The escalating tensions between the U.S.and Iran have previously caused concern although traders now seem to be ignoring that story for the moment, Trump’s war of words could be holding less sway with markets as the White House now regularly issues denials and corrections regarding his Twitter posts.

Gold is continuing its fall from the $1265 level it reached earlier in the month, it closed down $6.97 last night at $1224.33  and is slightly down on that level this morning. A firmer Dollar and and rise in U.S. Treasury yields are the main drivers of this bearish activity and the war of words between Trump and Iranian leader Hassan Rouhani does not seem to be having much effect at the moment.

Trading Diary:

10:55am   Nothing has popped up on my collection of charts yet so I am off fora gentle 10 mile cycle ride in this scorchingly nice weather !

12:55pm    Just come indoors and seen that there could be a ‘long’ trade setting up on my U.S. S&P-500  15-min chart.

13:05pm   I have just taken a quick S&P-500 ‘long’ trade, it’s a Master-The-Trend Strategy-B set-up with a slightly higher than normal stop loss value of 30 pips which reflects the slight volatility in the market so far today.  I will watch the chart carefully as 1:30pm approaches for abnormal price swings – I may come out just beforehand if there’s a small profit.

13:30pm   Came out of the S&P-500 position a few minutes ago as the price is starting to become much less predictable. Score is +47 pips.

14:05pm  Too sunny outside to be indoors for too long today so I am switching off my charts for the day, back here tomorrow.  Seen on the BBC News Channel that Suffolk is once again the hottest region in the UK with the least rainfall so going off to enjoy it !

 

Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Friday 20th July 2018

09:20am   I am having a day away from my charts today as we’re currently staying in a hotel in London for a few days.  Back trading next Tuesday.

Market Update:

U.S. equity markets ended Thursday’s session with a negative outlook after President Trump publicly criticized the Federal Reserve’s policy on gradually raising rates and banking stocks caused the main fall in the markets. The S&P-500 fell 0.40% to 2804.49 and the Dow Jones dropped slightly more in percentage terms and closed at 25,064.50.  This negative sentiment carried on through the night and the Asian trading session was equally as downbeat initially although many of the region’s bourses did recover early in the morning European time and by the end of the session only the Japanese Nikkei-225 index was in the red ( down 68.80 points at 22,697.44)

Oil price have risen slightly this morning after a broadly negative session on Thursday, Brent Crude closed down 39 cents last night to finish at $72.61 but as trading currently at $73.11 after bouncing off the $71.25 level on Wednesday.  There look to be some resistance coming up at the 20-day moving average ($74.00) so expect further bullish moves to be capped.  There are still concerns over market over supply and a slowdown in demand caused by the current U.S/China trade war which could trigger a negative economic outlook.

Gold is suffering at them moment as the U.S. Dollar is trading close to a one year high, it is getting close to the 2018 low of $1200 where it may find some support so watch for potential trading opportunities if it falls from its current $1223.17 level today.  The 1 hour and 4 hour charts are looking fairly overbought so there could be some falls in the next few hours.

Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Thursday 19th July 2018

08:15am    Here at home until lunchtime so any trades I take will be detailed below in my Trading Diary.  See below for my first position of the day already.

Market Update:

Markets in the U.S. and Europe closed mainly higher on Wednesday with upbeat earnings eports being the main drivers of the current buying spree. The S&P-500 ended the day at a 5-month high (+0.22%) after banking stocks in general had a positive session although tech stocks had a more negative day and dragged the Nasdaq down to finish at 7854.43.

The overnight Asian trading session closed mixed after a good start that was prompted by U.S. equity markets closing higher. Chinese stocks have been declining all week and last night’s performance was no different with the Shanghai Composite falling by 0.54% although the Hang Seng did recover earlier losses to close flat at28,061.10.  Most other bourses in the region finished in negative territory although the Australian ASX-200 managed a +17.60 point gain on industrial and financial sector gains.

The oil markets were fairly volatile during Wednesday’s session with conflicting news hitting the headlines.  The weekly Crude Oil Inventories showed that U.S. stocks declined but companies in the sector are reporting that they are putting more product into the market so both WTI Crude and Brent were unpredictable through most of yesterday.  WTI Crude bounced off a minor support at $66.50 but looks as though it may revisit that level again today.

Trading Diary:

08:15am   I am in a ‘short’ position on my 15-min WTI Crude Oil chart, it’s a Master-The-Trend Strategy-B pattern with a 23 pip stop loss.

11:00am   Just found out we are catching an earlier train to London so I have closed off my WTI position, it has managed +73 pips.  That’s it for today !

Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Wednesday 18th July 2018

08:35am     The plan for today is a quiet time here at home catching up on emails and also doing some chart watching from time to time – any trades I take will be detailed below in my Trading Diary.   (see below for my 1st trade of the day)

Market Update:

Markets are generally looking quite upbeat at the moment with the Tech-centred Nasdaq experiencing another record close last night after Amazon shares reached a new high and Netflix rebounded from the previous session’s fall.  The Dow Jones and S&P-500 were both in a bullish mood for most of yesterday and closed ahead by 0.22% and 0.40% respectively.

The overnight Asian trading session closed mixed despite some optimism from traders following upbeat comments earlier in the day from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell concerning the state of the U.S. economy.  Both Chinese markets closed in the red after a good start as did Malaysian and Korean bourses but the Australian ASX-200 and Japanese Nikkei-225 index managed to find buyers in the latter half of the session and finished up around 0.50%.

Oil markets continue to fall yesterday after the American Petroleum Institute released figures which they say confirms a rise in U.S. Crude Inventories rose last week despite officially recognised numbers not due for release until later today. Brent Crude fell 28 cents by the close last night to finish at $71.65 and is marginally down this morning by a few cents.  Gold prices finished at a one year low last night after Fed Chairman Powell said that the U.S. Central Bank is still on course to riase interest rates steadily through the rest of 2018 and the beginning of 2019.  It fell $12.50 during yesterday’s session to end at $1227.96 and is further down this morning at $1223.70

Trading Diary:

08:40am  I entered a ‘short’ GOLD position a while ago, details to follow in a minute.

08:45am    My GOLD trade is a Master-The-Trend Strategy-A pattern with a 10 pip stop loss.

13:10pm    The GOLD price has not dropped as expected through this morning’s session so I have closed the position with a minimal  +16 pip profit ahead of the U.S. trading session open in a short while.  Off out for lunch now.

14:45pm   Back from lunch but the sun is shining so I shall be outdoors for the rest of the day.  I will send out today’s trading information email shortly together with a chart screenshot of my only trade of the day

Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Tuesday 17th July 2018

 

10:10am    Slightly later than usual as I’ve been out on a 25 cycle ride already this morning but I am planing another day in my home office catching up on emails and watching my charts from time to time, any trades I take will be detailed below in my Trading Diary.

Market Update:

European equity markets closed mainly lower on the first trading session of the week as traders focused on earnings and the outcome of the Trump/Putin meeting in Helsinki.  Over in the U.S. the S&P-500 started the week with a negative outlook and failed to much headway all day despite some financial stocks powering ahead and it closed in the red by 2.88 points by last night although the narrower Dow Jones 30 index did manage to finish just ahead at 0.18%.  The banking sector as a whole was much more upbeat and ended 1.8% up mostly driven by good reported earning from Bank Of America and this optimism helped raise a few other companies in the sector.

The overnight Asian trading session ended mainly in the red with only the Japanese Nikkei-225 index closing in positive territory.  Energy shares were the main bearish driver of the night after the oil price declined 4% after the close of the U.S. markets and Chinese markets failed to make much headway after disappointing numbers on Monday. The drop in the oil price was originally started after previous supply problems in Libya were seen to be dissipating but in the past few hours the price is climbing over concerns that supply will be restricted from Norway as oil workers go on strike after unions try to secure better pay and pension provisions for the country’s workers.  Brent Crude closed last night at $71.93, down by $3.06 and the initial bullish move off the $71.50 support has failed to gain momentum and in the last few minutes the price is dropping once more – currently $71.82.

Trading Diary:

10:15am   Been out this morning on a bike ride so no trades to report for the first half of the morning.

12:40pm     No positions to report as yet, out for lunch now.

13:55pm     In a ‘short’position on my GOLD 15-min chart.  It’s a Master-The-Trend Strategy-B pattern with a 27 pip stop loss.

14:50pm    Just taken a quick +73 pip profit from the GOLD position.  Happy with my score for the day so switching off all my screens now but will be back in the morning.

Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Monday 16th July 2018

08:20am   I am getting back to a ‘normal’ working timetable today after a few weeks away so I’ll be in front of my screens watching my collection of favourite charts from time time as well as putting the final touches to my latest monthly instalment of the Trading-Education eBook – that will be available for download later this afternoon.

Any trades I take will be detailed below in my Trading Diary.

Market Update:

World indices in general are upbeat and mostly closed ahead for last week after a period where the U.S./China trade war has taken centre stage. Most traders will be watching the upcoming meeting between Presidents Trump and Putin for clues as to market direction this week but earnings are also in focus especially in Europe.

The first Asian trading session of the week ended earlier today on a slightly negative note as Chinese second-quarter GDP growth figures came in largely as expected at 6.7% although this figure was lower than the previous quarter so traders were pessimistic on the whole. There is some perceived lightening of mood between China and the U.S. regarding their trade tariff ‘war’ so we could see gains in Asian stocks as the week progresses.

Oil markets are again slipping as increased production and supply seem on the cards for the rest of the month, last week’s movement in Brent Crude was mainly down although the price has found some support at the 20-week moving average so we could see some improvement by the end of July. Concerns over Libyan oil exports are growing less as normal port activities are resumed as the state oil company has now resumed production from one of its larger oil fields.

Gold has once again reversed around the $1237 support area and is looking bullish this morning due to a weaker Dollar and declining Asian stocks. There could be a move up to the minor support/resistance level at $1247 in the next few days so watch for trading opportunities.

Trading Diary:

09:20am    As is quite usual on a Monday morning the markets are still settling down after a few days holiday so there’s nothing to see at the moment on my collection of favourite charts so I am off for a run.

12:30pm    Nothing to report so far today, off out for lunch now.

16:05pm    Been out of the house for most of the afternoon due to the lovely weather but indoors for a while and I have just taken a ‘short’ position on my 30-min GOLD chart. It’s Master-The-Trend Strategy-B pattern with an 17 pip stop loss.

17:50pm  The GOLD price has eventually come down sufficiently for me to cover my stop loss so I am now out of my position with a +17 pip stop loss  -  back in front of my charts tomorrow.

Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Wednesday 27th June 2018

08:25am    I am planning another day here at home and I will be watching my collection of favourite charts for trade opportunities – any trades I take will be detailed below in my Trading Diary. I  am already in a ‘short’ position on my FTSE-100 chart – more details below.

Market Update:

Markets in the U.S. rebounded during Tuesday’s trading session after losses on Monday and the Dow Jones 30 and the S&P-500 both closed up around 0.20% by the close last night. Tech and energy stocks were amongst the biggest winners although prices rises are being capped due to confusion over trade tariffs.

The overnight Asian trading session did not share earlier optimism from traders and most indices in the region closed in negative territory as oil prices rose as supply concerns over possible sanctions for Iran are trumping an OPEC increase in production.

The U.S. are pressing allies to reduce their oil imports from Iran to zero by November as they put pressure on their government over the countries nuclear ambitions.  Brent Crude rose $1.76 yesterday to close at $76.48 and is trading around the same level this morning, the increase in production that Saudi Arabia has announced is having little effect on values at the moment.

Gold is approaching a long term support area at $1250 as the U.S. Dollar value firms up, and has now fallen below its 200-week moving average which adds further weight to this current move down.

Trading Diary:

08:30am    I entered a ‘short’ position on my UK FTSE-100 15-min chart around 10 minutes ago, it’s a Master-The-Trend Strategy-B set-up with an 18 pip stop loss.

10:15am   Out for a 20 mile cycle ride with neighbours so I have closed off my FTSE position at +36 pips.

12:55pm   Off out for lunch, nothing emerging on my collection of favourite charts.

14:10pm    Too sunny to be stuck indoors, back at my desk tomorrow.