10:35am CET (09:35 UK time) Late start for me today as I’ve had some broadband/internet problems out here to sort earlier this morning – I have a few other issues to fix as well but I may have a chance to do some chart watching later so keep an eye on the Trading Diary below.
Market Update:
Low volumes of trading in the U.S. yesterday due to Veteran’s Day holiday meant that the three main indices over there did not make much headway and ended slightly down on the day which will impact on the European start for today. Continued uncertainty over the timing of an interest rate rise from the Federal Reserve seems to be holding the S&P 500 and Dow Jones markets back and they are well off the highs we saw during the first half of 2015 although the price does seem to be resting yet again on the 2070 level on the S&P – I sent opver a chart illustration to subscribers earlier this morning.
Crude oil values have consolidated slightly overnight after large falls in the last few days ago due to reports of over supply worries in the U.S. and today’s Crude Oil Inventories numbers will confirm this rumour. The WTI Crude price is currently sitting just below the $43 level but with the Daily chart looking very oversold we may see some small rises before the end of this trading week.
Trading Diary:
All Times Below Are Central European Time (CET) UK time +1hr
11:55am Been back for an hour or so and not seen any trading opportunities so I am off on a cycle ride towards Formentor and then lunch afterwards.
17:15pm There may well be a ‘short’ trade coming up on the S&P 500 chart but we are off out in a minute for an early drink in town with friends so I’ve set-up an order – entry is at 20650 with a stop loss of 35 pips. I have set the profit at +65 pips which is a close support level.
21:30pm Just got back home and seen my S&P trade has managed +65 pips — happy days….
07:35am Back to my charts this morning plus catching up on emails before flying out to Majorca later this afternoon
Market Update:
U.S. equity markets did end up on Tuesday evening but without much enthusiasm and this will translate to a muted opening in Europe this morning with prospects of a quiet days trading here due to the U.S. Veteran’s Day bank holiday. Overnight in Asian, markets ended mixed with no real direction either way after Chinese Industrial Production figures came in slightly lower than expected and here in Europe we have a speech by European Central Bank President Mario Draghi later this afternoon where it is rumoured he will announce more ‘easing’ which translates to good old fashioned money printing – watch out for a reaction on the Dax and Euro if you are in those markets after lunch.
On the Crude Oil market there was a report out by the American Petroleum Institute yesterday that showed that crude oil inventories are going to come out far higher than expected later this week – this caused WTI Crude to fall by 44 cents to $43:75 by the close last night and currently is a further 10 cents down at the moment at $43:65.
Trading Diary:
10:05am Just got back from a cycle ride and can see a possible UTB trade setting up on my Dax 30 chart.
10:15am I am now in the short UTB position mentioned above, my stop loss is 19 pips.
11:20am My Dax chart has just produced a nice bullish reversal candle so I’ve just come out of my UTB position – my score was +20 pips.
12:35pm Just had a last look at my charts for the day but nothing much to get excied about so that’s it until tomorrow.
07:15am Another early start as I’m helping the builders again here at home - so once again no trading for me today.
Market Update:
Asian markets overnight have had quite a mixed session after U.S. equities finished down on Monday night by around 1% as traders experienced renewed worries over monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve before the end of the year and also continuing disappointing trade numbers out of China at the weekend.. On the flip side, there will be bargain hunters out today after such large falls so markets both here in Europe and the U.S. should see some bullish sentiment appearing during the day.
A report late on yesterday from the U.S. Department Of Energy that highlighted a continuing decline in crude production helped WTI Crude stem Monday’s losses, there has been a fall now for four straight sessions and the price is quickly approaching it’s near term support level at $42:50, it is currently sitting at $43:94 this morning with bullish clues on the 4hr chart.
Gold was helped by bargain hunters yesterday and finished the session slightly up, its first positive day for nearly a month – the value has dropped from $1190 in the middle of October to $1091.40 this morning.
07:20am Early start for me as I’m helping builders who are here all day – so no trading today.
Market Update:
The main focus in the markets was the better than expected jobs data released in the U.S. on Friday and it would seem that traders are gradually waking up to the idea that an increase in interest rates is not such a bad idea. During most of this year when good economic news has been released there has been a perception that an optimistic outlook will cause the Federal Reserve to increase interest rates which in turn is perceived as a bad thing, hence the good news is bad news reaction. The reality is that when the rise does start it will only be 0.25% to begin with anyway so of no real consequence plus is generally accepted that there will be no return to the +5% rates of previous years.
So all this means that the main U.S. indices are continuing to look bullish with the S&P 500 in an Up trend on most of its higher timeframes and European equities are looking to start higher this morning despite mixed results in Asia overnight. On the crude oil markets, the U.S. WTI Crude ended down almost 2% on Friday after falling quite sharply on the Non Farm Payrolls numbers and is homing in on a minor support level at $43:50, it is currently sitting at $44:62 after subdued moves in the Asian trading session. The Gold price is continuing its falls as equity markets rise – it’s been in a bearish trend almost constantly since the middle of October and will soon be at the 5-year low of $1068 which we saw in July this year.
07:35am I have just sent off my daily ‘Trading-Guidance’ email to subscribers and now going to do a few hours of emails before having the rest of the day off from trading as it’s Non Farm Payrolls day in the U.S. so markets will be quiet this morning and quite volatile this afternoon.
Market Update:
Traders are waiting for what should be quite a good U.S. jobs report today but which way the market will eventually go is anyone’s guess. With a rise in employment comes the prospect of better economic conditions which should cause the market to rally but on the other side of the coin, Janet Yellen may decide that as the economy is expanding it’s time for an interest rate rise (as she’s already hinted at earlier this week) and that’s bad for big businesses that borrow money and also for consumers who’s mortgage payments will go up. So all you can safely predict is that equity markets will go up and down fairly sharply this afternoon but the direction they settle down to next Monday/Tuesday should be a hint as to where they’re going for the next few weeks.
Over on the oil market, there is still a glut of crude looking for buyers so the prospect for U.S. WTI Crude prices to rise looks slim after two straight days of falls following disappointing inventory numbers on Wednesday. The price has been stuck in a fairly narrow trading range for the last two months but the weekly chart is now looking decidedly bearish – current price is $45:60 down from a high on Wednesday of $48:33.emi
08:10am Back home today after a day away so will be here in the study watching charts and catching up on emails. While compiling my daily ‘Trading-Guidance’ email for subscribers earlier I noticed a possible ‘short’ trade on the German Dax 30 index and I have just entered a position with a 29 pip stop loss.
Market Update:
Traders will again be watching economic announcements today to give them hints as to market direction, there has been a raft of numbers out so far this week and today we have the Bank Of England’s interest rate announcement together with a speech by Governor Mark Carney. There is little doubt that the record rate of 0.50% is going stay for another month but of more interest will be how many members of the Monetary Policy Committee voted yesterday to increase the rate this month, we will know the result when we hear the Policy Summary at 13:00pm today with further information in Carney’s speech 45 minutes later.
Also there is preliminary employment figures from the U.S. out at lunchtime and an expectation of a slight rise on last week’s numbers by around 3,000 but whatever the final count is, traders are watching these announcements carefully fo rclues as to Janet Yellen and the Federal Reserve’s next move on their interest rate decision.
Overnight the Asian markets were largely positive with the Japanese Nikkei 225 the best performer, up nearly 1% but this sentiment has not carried over to U.S. futures yet, they are pointing to a flat open at lunchtime at the moment. Yesterday’s U.S. Crude Oil Inventory numbers showed a larger than expected build in stock which caused WTI Crude to end the day down $1:10 at $46:52 which all but wiped out Tuesday’s gain unfortunately.
Trading Diary:
09:25am I have just come out of the above mentioned trendFX ‘short’ position on my Dax 30 chart, the price shot down initially after disappointing German Factory Order numbers were released but has now become quite volatile. My trade has managed +32 pips and I’m going to have a break and go out for a cycle ride with a neighbour for an hour or so.
13:55pm Since I got back from my cycle ride there’s not been any trade set-ups for me to take so I am switching off my charts and going dive into some books that arrived from Amazon earlier.
07:50am Nice relaxing day at home today so I shall report any trades I have here in the diary.
No Market Update (or trading) tomorrow (Wednesday) as I am off very early for a Clay Pigeon shoot in Hampshire.
Market Update:
The first trading day of the new month saw equities generally bullish with acceptable European and U.S. PMI numbers being announced yesterday. Both the Dow Jones 30 and S&P 500 ended the day around 1% higher with both indices touching near term resistance levels so there maybe a slight pullback today.
Overnight Asian stocks were mixed with the Hang Seng Index up 1.05% but the Nikkei 225 and Shanghai Composite down despite the Reserve Bank of Australia holding their key interest rate at 2% for another month. Their rate statement a few hours ago included comments about the economy starting to ‘firm up’ which traders took to mean that there maybe some further easing in the future although the Australian Dollar has surged coming up to the European session open.
The oil market struggled yesterday on disappointing economic news out of China which is restricting demand and also news of Hedge Funds adding to their short positions on WTI Crude did not help to lift sentiment. U.S. Crude ended Monday’s session ended 12 cents down at 46:10 and has developed a few bearish reversal candles on the daily chart while trading in a very narrow area so a move down maybe on the cards.
Trading Diary:
09:30am Just quickly checked my group of favourite charts and there’s nothing much happening so going out for a cycle ride.
11:40am Back home and I’ve just found a trade on my UK Brent Crude chart – I have just entered a long position with a 20 pip stop loss using the trendFX strategy-3 set-up.
13:00pm Does look as though my Brent trade is going to be stopped out but on a different note, I can see a possible ‘short’ trade on my Gold chart – another trendFX strategy-3 set-up.
13:25pm Out of one trade and into another. The Brent Crude position has been stopped out at -20 pips and I am in the Gold trade mentioned above — the stop loss on this new position is 26 pips.
15:40pm Happy with my profit on the Gold position so I am now out with a +76 pip profit and +56 pips overall for the day.
11:35am Back an hour ago from a long weekend away and today I shall mostly be here at home catching up on emails and doing some chart watching inbetween errands and some shopping.
Market Update:
A new week and a new trading month and there is a raft of important economic data out in the next 5-days plus more large company profit/loss reporting as well. Today the economic news has kicked off overnight with the Caixin Manufacturing PMI which is basically a report on Chinese factory orders and this month has come in lower again for the 8th month in a row. This news has not really impacted much on the European trading session today as equities have largely rallied on the open due to encouraging PMI numbers across Germany, France, Italy and here in the UK – any PMI number above 50 denotes expansion and is generally perceived as good and all the countries mentioned have managed this in today’s numbers. This general optimism seems to be extending across the Atlantic this morning with U.S. equity futures ahead so the open will be up slightly for the Dow Jones and S&P 500 indices despite falls on Friday.
Crude oil markets seem to be at a decision point at the moment with the WTI Crude daily chart unable to improve on the bullish sentiment that caused the market to rise so much last Wednesday after lower than expected stock levels were announced although the 200 day moving average is starting to provide a resistance level so this week may see some falls down to the $43:00 level from the current $45:79.
Trading Diary:
13:55pm Just got into a ‘long’ position on my German Dax 30 chart – it’s a trendFX strategy-1 set-up with an 11 pip stop loss.
15:25pm Came out of my Dax trade 5-minutes ago with a 21 pip profit — the position had been upto +40 pips a short while ago but the price now looks to be retreating back so happy to be out of the market. Off into the village for some errands soon so no more trades this afternoon.
07:35am Just sent off my daily ‘Trading Guidance’ email to subscribers and for the rest of the morning I shall be at home watching charts, doing emails and also putting the finishing touches to my new book on Triangle Trading.
Market Update:
U.S. equities had a largely bearish day on Thursday with the main Dow Jones index down 23 points (-0.13%) on weaker GDP figures for the 3rd quarter. This slow growth in the U.S. economy will be one of the deciding factors for the Fed when they decide on a rate shift at their December meeting although an expected rise of just 0.25% initially is hardly going to make a difference to most large companies anyway.
In Asia overnight, the Japanese Nikkei 225 ended slightly up after the Bank Of Japan decided to stall their stimulus programme which is seen by many traders as a positive move as the government still thinks the economy is fairly safe and relatively unaffected by Chinese woes. The Crude oil market is still in a bearish mood despite a move up of $2:70 during Wednesday’s session – the price this morning is hovering around the $45:50 level and is using the 20 day moving average as resistance at the moment.
Trading Diary:
08:55am Just entered a ‘short’ position on my UK FTSE 100 chart, it’s a UTB set-up with a whopping 11 pips !
10:35am Off out for a cycle ride soon plus some other errands in town so I have just closed off my FTSE trade – it has managed +27 pips, happy with that.
15:45pm I entered a ‘long’ position a few minutes ago on my S&P 500 chart – it is another UTB pattern and the stop loss is 25 pips.
17:10pm Off to see a neighbour now so out of the S&P trade as I’m happy with the score, it ended up at +51 pips. That’s it for trading this week , 78 pips today and a total of +176 pips since Tuesday.
09:05am Already been out for a cycle ride this morning and the rest of the day I shall be mainly around the house so any trades I have will be reported here.
Market Update:
Main news in the markets at the moment was last night’s U.S. Federal Reserve announcement that they are leaving their minimum lending rate at its present level for another month although comments suggested that the world economy is not really that bad so a rise in December may well be on the cards. This caused an initial sell-off in equities but once traders had gathered their thoughts, the markets then rose and the Dow Jones 30 ended yesterday’s session 198 points up at 17,780 with the wider S&P index of 500 leading companies was also up just over 1%.
General worries over a contracting Chinese economy caused equities in Asian to end the overnight session mixed at best although traders are slowly coming round to the reality that U.S. interest rates will rise early in 2016 and a world with extremely low rates is not good as it indicates that business is struggling – a rate of even 1% is a luxury compared with the 1990′s average of well over 5% in most of the G7 nations. Although the Fed has hinted that a rise could happen in December, nobody really believes that would occur during the best spending period of the year and probable rise in January/February to 0.5% is not going to make much difference in the real world.
Trading Diary:
10:25am Now in a ‘short’position on my Gold 1hr. chart – it’s a UTB set-up with a 30 pip stop loss.
14:20pm Going off the The Harbour Inn for a late lunch with some fellow traders so I’ve closed off my Gold position as I am happy with the +67 pip score.
