09:15am A late start for me ahead of a nice relaxing day away from my charts, I have a few errands to sort and emails to catch-up on this afternoon. Back trading tomorrow.
Market Update:
Another new week of trading and the focus in the Europe and the U.S. is the Non Farm Payrolls number on Friday which will be keenly watched to see where the Federal reserve will stand for their interest rate decision later this month. The markets have already priced in a rate rise to a certain extent but there is an expectation at the moment that there could less jobs created in November than the previous month and this may give the Fed reasons to delay their announcement to push interest rates above the current low level of 0.25% which has been in force since the end of 2008.
The crude oil market seems to be back on a downward trajectory after the overnight Asian session and news from Iran that they have a wish to overhaul their oil industry and make it easier for foreign companies to invest in their country without the fear of having it all taken away at the whim of the Iranian government. This will no doubt result in an increase in production and no doubt this will be one of the major points of discussion at this week’s twice-yearly OPEC meeting in Vienna. The other debate will be production levels as Saudi Arabia is eventually feeling the effects of a $40 per barrel crude oil value with is unsustainable in the long term as most oil producing countries have based their economies on a $60-$80 range. The WTI Crude daily chart looks to be retreating down again towards the November low of $39:80 before it bounces back up.
09:05am Nice lazy start to my day, no trading just a few jobs around the house then a clay pigeon shoot this afternoon.
No Market Update or trading tomorrow (Friday) as I am away in Norfolk on a track day.
Market Update:
The markets should be quite quiet today due to the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday but equities in Europe have got off to a bullish start this morning with both the Dax-30 and FTSE100 ahead already. Overnight in Asia, Chinese equities finished mixed but slightly down and the Japanese Nikkei 225 managed a 0.5% rise at the close a short while ago. New home sales and consumer sentiment numbers out in the U.S. yesterday was slightly disappointing and did cause a fall in equities at the start of the session but durable goods did come in higher than expectations and by late afternoon the main indices had recovered earlier losses and finished largely flat.
Wednesday’s U.S. Crude Oil Inventories numbers showed a slower than expected rise in stocks and this caused a bullish reaction after earlier losses so in the end WTI Crude ended the day only slightly higher at $43:11 and is now resting on its 20-day moving average as traders assess their week’s profits, the price has risen over $3 in just six days.
07:55am I shall mostly be a home today apart from a visit to Norwich later this afternoon so if I have any trades I will report them here.
Market Update:
The U.S. markets ended well last night with a late rally and this should spur European equities this morning to start Wednesday’s session optimistically. The overnight Asian session was not as positive though with only the Chinese Shanghai Composite ended ahead, the Hang Seng, Nikkei and Australian ASX 200 all finished negatively, mainly due to worries over escalating tensions in Syria following the shooting down of a Russian plane yesterday and also further falls in Iron Ore which is Australia’s largest export commodity.
The problems yesterday between Turkey and Russia also boosted investor’s interest in safe haven products such as the Japanese Yen and Gold. The yellow metal is continuing its move above the $1065 recent low with a largely positive session yesterday with the weekly chart suggesting some more bullish moves towards the end of the year. Crude oil is also enjoying a boost in values after Saudi Arabia’s announcement that they are now willing to talk about restricting production and give up their fight with the U.S. oil industry, WTI Crude had a positive session yesterday and hit its 20 day moving average before retreating back slightly. Today’s U.S. Crude Oil Inventories should set the direction for the next few days, there is an expectation of higher stocks which could have a negative reaction to the price.
Trading Diary:
08:50am Nothing to see on my charts at the moment so off for a cycle ride down towards Dunwich.
10:20am Just got back and there’s a possible ‘long’ trendFX strategy-3 pattern setting up on my Dax-30 chart.
10:40am The Dax price has risen above the 11.062 level so the trade has been triggered. My stop loss is 24 pips.
11:25am I am now out of my Dax position after price has stalled slightly, happy with a +30 pip profit.
12:10pm Now in another trendFX position, this time it’s a strategy-1 set-up on my Brent Crude chart and my stop loss is 21 pips.
13:00pm My Brent position is doing ok so I shall wait and see what happens as the U.S. trading gets underway in 30 minutes, I have moved my stop loss upto break even in case the markets become volatile.
13:35pm Just been invited out to lunch and as I’m happy with the profit so far I’ve just closed off my Brent Crude position. It has managed +29 pips so a total of +59 pips for the day so far but probably my last trade as I’m off to Norwich at 3pm.
07:40am Just emailed my daily ‘Trading-Guidance’ sheet to subscribers and for the rest of the day I shall be having a relaxing time here at home catching up on emails and doing some chart watching from time to time.
Market Update:
The terrorist situation in Europe is weighing heavily on equities this morning with the German Dax 30 index looking as though it will open sharply down with the London FTSE 100 following suit in pre-market trading. There are a few sectors that will suffer from the growing ‘lock-down’ across northern Europe including tourism and retail shares and airlines could be in the firing line soon as well if there are credible threats across the Atlantic as the U.S. government has now issued a worldwide travel alert for its citizens.
The falling values of global commodities is also having an effect on equity markets but there is a glimmer of hope in the Crude oil market as Saudi Arabia’s ploy to keep crude oil prices low to flush out new U.S. fracking companies that have upset their market dominance has backfired somewhat and now they are coming round to fact that not even the richest oil nation in the world can survive with crude prices as they are at the moment. They have signalled that they are now willing to talk to fellow OPEC members about restricting production to boost the price above the unsustainable $40 level. This news meant WTI Crude has halted its fall and the daily chart has a number of bullish reversal candle patterns around the $40 level and the next few days of price action will confirm this as a new support line.
Trading Diary:
07:55am Just entered a ‘short’ position on the German Dax 30 index, more details in a moment as some trader friends have just arrived for breakfast.
09:15am Details of the trade I am in are as follows — it’s a trendFX ’strategy-1′ set-up on the Dax 30 index with a 20 pip stop loss and so far it’s doing ok, currently at +59 pips.
09:35am All the signs are that the German Ifo business climate survey is going to come in higher than last month so as I was shorting the market I am now out of the position with a more than satisfactory +66 pips.
14:55pm Just back from lunch and nothing much to get excited about on my charts – I am going to join in on a round of golf up the road instead of sitting in the study this afternoon.
07:15am Back in the cold frosty UK for a few weeks but no trading for me today, we are shopping in London all day – back to the markets tomorrow.
Market Update:
Most equity markets had quite a good week with the U.S. S&P500 having its best 5-day run this year but Asian markets overnight have been subdued with no interesting economic news announcements and a Japanese bank holiday as well. There is a Federal Reserve announcement at some stage later today (time unknown) so traders will be dissecting the rhetoric to gauge sentiment for the expected December rate rise and U.S. markets may well be quiet leading up to the release of information – also watch out for latest Purchase Manager’s Index numbers out this afternoon as well.
Commodities continue to take a battering with Crude oil settled into a definite bearish trend on its weekly chart and Gold is suffering from the same sentiment, it had another negative week’s trading although does seem to have found some interim support around the $1064 level.
08:15am CET (07:15 UK Time) Early start for me today as I am travelling back to the UK at lunchtime but before then I shall be here in the study catching up on emails and doing some chart watching.
Market Update:
There was a subdued mood in the markets yesterday as traders digested the sentiment concerning the imminent U.S. rate rise that is now running at 70% chance for December (according to Bloomberg this morning) and this mood carried on overnight for the Asian trading session where the Hang Seng, Shanghai Composite and Nikkei 225 all ended broadly flat. Traders today will be watching for any hints and clues during speeches from ECB President Draghi and Federal Reserve Bank of New York chief William Dudley and hopefully will be more active than yesterday when the S&P 500 closed just 2 points down at 2081.24, forming a bearish reversal candle on the daily chart giving weight to a possible move down for the index before the weekend.
The Crude Oil market is still looking very bearish with the price of U.S. WTI Crude still lurking around the $40 level although yesterday’s session was quite bullish for a change. The daily chart is looking weak once again so moves down towards the $39:85 level in the next few days look entirely possible.
Trading Diary:
All times below are CET (UK time +1hr)
10:40am Just had a quick look at my charts for a second time this morning and no opportunities so that’s it for me today as far as trading is concerned.
08:20am CET (07:20am UK time)
Just sent off my daily ‘Trading-Guidance’ email to subscribers and now I am going to settle down here in the study to catch up on emails and do some chart watching now and again.
Market Update:
Wednesday’s main market news was last night’s FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting minutes which revealed the majority of members are now in favour of a rate rise in December. Equities took the news much better than in previous months and traders seem to be looking forward to a ‘normal’ U.S. economy where there will be small but regular rises in the minimum lending rate over the next few years upto the expected 2%-3% level. Over in the UK, the Bank Of England would normally follow around 9-12 months later so British businesses are safe now until the end of 2016 it would seem.
Both the S&P500 and Dow Jones 30 indices ended yesterday’s session up on the Fed’s news and this sentiment spilled over to the overnight Asian trading session with the Nikkei 225, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite all ending up by over 1%. Crude oil took a break from its bearish trend and U.S. WTI Crude posted a 15 cent rise by last night to $40:88as bargain hunters moved in temporarily and there does seem to be a small support level developing at $40 so watch out for trading opportunities around this number.
Trading Diary:
All Time Below Are CET (UK +1hr)
11:45am It’s been quite a quiet morning on my collection of favourite charts so I am now going to clear the cobwebs and have a cycle ride up towards Formentor.
16:10pm Been back from lunch for an hour and I’ve not seen any trading opportunities so I’m calling it a day – back in front of my charts tomorrow.
08:50am CET (07:50 UK Time) No activity on the markets for me yesterday, I was struck down with a strange 24hr bug but all ok now so if I have any trades today I will report the details here.
Market Update:
Putting aside the ongoing terrorist worries in Europe which has now moved to Germany as well, traders other focus today is the Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting minutes towards the end of the U.S. trading session. There is a growing expectation that the vote for a rate rise on December will be in the majority with the latest betting showing a 66% chance of a 0.25% increase at next month’s announcement. This sentiment was part of the reason that the Dow Jones 30 and S&P500 indices closed mixed last night and there is now a bearish candlestick reversal pattern on the S&P daily chart so today’s movement may well be down eventually although traders will be reluctant to enter large positions before tonight’s announcement.
Crude oil had another negative day after a brief respite on Monday caused by the terrorist situation on France which always highlights concerns over supply in the Middle East although the general trend is still bearish because of oversupply in most of the world on falling demand. U.S. WTI Crude fell 67 cents on Tuesday to finish at $41:06 and is currently down further at $40:99 with UK Brent Crude following the general trend.
Gold had a brief bullish session on Monday when bargain hunters moved in on geopolitical concerns but has now continued its journey downwards and has fallen below a long term support level at $1068 and is now heading for the next support at $1045 which was last seen in 2010.
Trading Diary:
All Time Below Are Central European Time (UK +1hr)
09:20am Not much going on with my collection of favourite charts so I am off for a cycle ride.
11:25am Just got into a ‘short’ position on my Gold chart, it is a trendFX strategy-1 set-up with a 22 pip stop loss
14:20pm The U.S. trading session is about to get underway so I am now out of my Gold trade as the market may become volatile for an hour or so — my position has managed +34 pips.
15:00pm No more trading for the day as I’m giving my elderly neighbour a lift to Palma and back.
08:50am CET (07:50 UK time) At home for most of today so I will report any trades I have here in the diary.
Market Update:
Obviously the markets are going to be dominated for a few days by the attacks in Paris and already European equities have opened around 1% down on last week’s close although most are staging a small recovery. If you look at previous terrorist hits, markets have been negative for a few days before traders reassess the likely impact on individual stocks. Airlines and tourism are going to be the hardest hit over the next week with Air France amongst the worse affected this morning on the CAC 40 index.
Overnight in Asia, news has emerged that Japan has entered a period of recession once again after GDP figures were released just after midnight European time and this has resulted in the Nikkei 225 closing down just over 1% at 19,393 although falls in Hong Hong reached 1.7%. WTI Crude price was hit last week by comments that the overall global oil glut is going to be around for longer than most commentators originally thought as stocks are high, demand is down and surprisingly we have seen a slight increase in the U.S. oil rig count, it gained two more rigs last week to give the country 574 active currently.
Trading Diary:
All Times Below Are Central European Time (UK Time +1hr)
09:45am The markets are still sorting themselves out after gapping up and down on the European open so there’s no real trade opportunities yet and with this in mind I am off for a cycle ride.
13:50pm Charts settling down now and there could be a ‘short’ UTB pattern developing on the UK Brent Crude chart.
14:05pm The Brent UTB pattern has played out nicely and I am now in a ‘short’ position with an 18 pip stop loss.
14:15pm Off into town for lunch and as my position is doing ok (+35 pips) I’ve brought my stop loss upto break even but left the target open at the moment as there looks like more downside to the chart, I will check as soon as I get back in an hour or so.
16:20pm The Brent Crude price has bounced off a previous support level from Friday evening so I have closed the trade off at +129 pips, happy with that result.
17:00pm Friends have arrived for the evening so no more trading today.
09:35am CET (08:35 UK Time) Not sure how much trading I’ll manage today as I have some errands to run in Palma but any trades I do have will be reported below through the day.
Market Update:
An interesting day ahead in European equity markets are promised after large falls in the U.S. yesterday, the biggest one day drop since the end of September. There was speeches by both Janet Yellen and Federal Reserve member William Dudley and while Yellen did made a deliberate effort to keep her talk non committal, Dudley came out quite plainly and said that conditions for a rate hike were almost satisfied. This together with worse than expected unemployment claims numbers sent the markets into a tail spin with the S&P 500 losing 29 points (1.4%) by the close of Thursday’s session to end at 2045.96 although it is slightly higher in futures trading this morning at 2047.60.
The value of Gold is still heading in a bearish trend and has been since the middle of October although it did touch a July support level at $1074 during yesterday’s session and rebounded upwards, it is suffering from a lack of demand in Asia together with rumours/fears of a U.S. rate hike in the next few months. Crude oil values are also at near term lows with U.S. WTI Crude suffering from an excess of stock even though production has been cut back drastically this year, it closed down at $41:59 last night after a very bearish session, a level we’ve not seen since August.
Trading Diary:
23:15pm No chance for any trading today as I was out of the house for most of it.
