09:30am Fairly late start for me and no trading today as we are off to London to do some Christmas shopping in the next few hours
Market Update:
The main news today is the aftermath of last night’s Federal Reserve interest rate rise of 0.25% upto a seven year high of 0.50%. Across the world, most large economies cut their central bank lending rate in reaction to the 2008 world recession and this rise in the U.S. is a vote of confidence that we are at last seeing some improvement overall in the world’s largest economy. The overnight Asian session was certainly buoyed by the news and ended positively for all indices including the Australian ASX200 which was ahead by 1.4% early this morning.
Gold also endured a volatile session yesterday and suffered after Janet Yellen’s announcement – it reversed downwards at its 20-day moving average and is on bearish trajectory this morning, heading towards the recent low at $1046 – currently sitting at $1068. The crude oil market suffered more losses yesterday after the weekly oil inventories announcement showed a further rise in stocks. There has been no let up in global production despite record stock levels and U.S. WTI Crude is now just above the $35 level, on its way to the support level at $34.50.
09:50am Had a few issues with our website this morning so this Market Update is slightly delayed today. At home this morning catching up on emails and doing some chart watching then clay pigeon shooting this afternoon with the usual group of friends.
Market Update:
Traders and investors focus today is solely on Janet Yellen and the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision later this evening. The chances of an increase in the minimum lending rate is said to be around 80% this week and to a certain extent the rise is already priced into the equity market so we will probably see a subdued morning’s trading before some volatile moves as the U.S. trading session comes to a close.
European equities have opened largely flat this morning despite a largely positive overnight Asian session with the main Japanese index, the Nikkei 225 rising 484 points and the Hang Seng Index up over 2% as well. Even though there is still massive over producion and lack of demand in the Crude Oil market, the U.S. WTI Crude price rallied nearly 3% yesterday although this retrace may well be short lived as the daily chart is now well overbought once again and poised for further falls as we move to the end of the last full trading week of the year.
The Gold price is still well under its 20-day moving average on the Daily chart in a prolonged down-trend although it is now slightly above its $1046 near-term support, this morning it is currently sitting at $1064 but looking fairly bearish with the 4-hour chart quite overbought.
Trading Diary:
10:10am As I had envisaged, markets are quite subdued this morning so I am taking this opportunity to go off on a cycle ride as there’s not much to get excited about on my group of favourite charts.
13:05pm The U.S. trading session is starting soon and there looks to be a possible ‘long’ trading opportunity developing on the S&P500 index so will report back.
13:25pm Just entered a ‘long’ position on the S&P500 using the trendFX strategy-1 pattern. Quite a risky time to get into the market so not a good idea for new traders but I’m not at all bothered about the odd loss so I’ll keep a tight stop loss and see what happens in a few minutes when the market should take off one way or the other. My stop is just 27 pips.
14:55pm Although the S&P500 was quite volatile , it’s really taken off now so I am now out of my position as it retreating back from a trade profit high of+56 pips to an acceptable +30 pips. Nobody wants a potentially winning trade to turn into a loser ! Off out now for the rest of the afternoon.
08:55am After a long weekend break I am having a lazy day here at home so any trades I have will be reported in this diary.
Market Update:
Two main subjects are dominating the markets this week – the falling crude oil price and the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. the FOMC has begun its two day meeting to decide on the direction of the U.S. lending rate and an announcement will be made tomorrow evening (Wednesday) at 19:00 hrs UK time. There is an over 80% expectation that rates will double from the present record low of 0.25% to a whopping 0.50% and that will be it until March/April next year, so there will be a certain amount of volume in the S&P500 and Dow Jones 30 indices today but expect traders to be fairly quiet tomorrow in the run-up to Janet Yellen’s announcement in the evening.
The other main news is falling crude oil prices and U.S. WTI Crude has now dropped below the significant $35 level although commodity traders turned to bargain hunting late in yesterday’s session and a buying spree drove the price back up to $36:23 at the close and currently sentiment is stable at $36:50. The UK Brent Crude benchmark has suffered a similar fate and fell to a 7-year low of $36:32 but has also recovered this morning to stand at $38:22 currently.
Trading Diary:
09:00am Possible ‘long’ trade on my UK FTSE100 chart – more details soon.
09:15am I am now in a ‘long’ position using my trendFX strategy-3 set-up on the FTSE100 with a 18 pip stop loss
10:10am Now in another ‘long’ trendFX strategy-3 position, this time it’s my WTI Crude chart — the stop loss is 20 pips.
10:40am Still in my FTSE position as it is struggling its way up to a reasonable profit but I’m now out of the WTI trade – it has managed +43 pips.
10:45am Although the FTSE trade is not really going anywhere at the moment, the price is forming a triangle so it’s going to break out one way or the other soon.
11:50am The FTSE100 price broke upwards in the end and it has just hit the 1:1 profit level at 5983 so I am now out of my position at +18 pips. Out for a cycle ride soon then a quick lunch at the Lord Nelson.
13:45pm Not long been back and I’m now in another ‘long’ position on the FTSE100 – although this time it is a trendFX strategy-1 set-up. The stop loss is just 10 pips.
16:10pm This was my last trade of the day and the FTSE has slowed right down and started a small reversal so I am now out. It’s resulted in a +46 pip profit so all in all I have managed +107 pips
08:25am A few meetings here at home today so there maybe time to do some chart watching inbetween, any trades I have will be detailed here through the day.
I am away for long-weekend break from early tomorrow so my next Market Update/Trading Diary will be on Tuesday 15th.
Market Update:
The commodity price drop is still causing headlines across markets with U.S. equities ending down again yesterday for the third time this week although the S&P500 has now fallen onto its 200 day moving average where it is resting this morning so we may see a small retrace upwards as bargain hunters come out for a short buying spree. Reports of dwindling global storage facilities for Crude Oil are causing concern amongst oil companies but no one is willing to move first to cut production so more falls are expected for Brent and U.S. WTI Crude although the UK oil chart does seem to have found a minor support around $39:60 and is currently trading just above the $40 level. A majority of oil traders I have spoken to this week feel the 2009 level of $35 is in the firing line soon though and with OPEC’s rhetoric regarding production levels, we may see further falls before the year is out.
Gold is coming off its recent low at $1046 and had another mildly positive day on Wednesday although commentators are mixed as to why this is happening. A slight increase in demand on the run-up to Christmas is one reason although more probable is bargain hunters coming out for a few days to grab some quick profits.
Trading Diary:
10:15am Just got back from cycle ride and I can see a possible trendFX trade setting up on the German Dax-30 chart.
10:30am The ‘long’ Dax-30 trade mentioned above has now triggered so I am the market with a 43 pip stop loss, slightly higher than normal on a 15 minute chart but that reflects the volatility at the moment. It is a strategy-3 set-up from the trendFX system.
11:35am Just got back here into my study after a meeting and noticed my Dax trade has been stopped out a short while ago at -43 pips.
14:00pm Nothing to see on my charts when I just had a look so off to late lunch now with some other traders.
16:10pm Back home now but other things to do so no more chart watching for me today. Will be back to trading on Tuesday.
08:50am Nice lazy day at home for a change today including some chart watching – so if I have any trades I will report them here through the day.
Market Update:
Commodity values are the main news in the markets today as Iron Ore and Crude Oil fall to multi-year lows, we have not seen Brent Crude at the $39 level since February 2009. With demand slowing as China, the world’s second largest economy needs less raw materials it would be sensible to presume that production would fall but this is not the case and these producers are keeping output levels constant but just fighting for more market share in an ever smaller market – and the result is this over supply situation and falling prices we are in now.
After a generally pessimistic Asian session overnight, European equity markets have opened down this morning with the London FTSE100 index falling over 50 points and the German Dax-30 following suit. There is no significant economic news out today so markets are going to take clues from energy and mining stocks for the second day in a row. The Gold price was treading water yesterday after large falls on Monday but the daily chart is hinting towards more falls as it uses the 20 day moving average as a resistance level.
Trading Diary:
09:45am Charts are all over the place this morning so not much in the way of opportunities yet so I am off for a cycle ride and then into town for some errands.
13:00pm Nothing to report as far as trading is concerned, I am off out to lunch now and then an unexpected invitation to play a round of golf this afternoon so no more chart watching for me today.
07:20am Another early start for me as I am back helping my neighbour again this morning but may be finished in time to do some trading later today.
Market Update:
The value of Crude Oil is dominating the news once again – it hit a new low earlier this morning and is now heading towards the levels we last encountered back in 2009 after the global recession had taken hold and destroyed demand. The U.S. WTI Crude is currently sitting at $37:85 and has dropped below its near term support at $37:75 a few times in the last 12 hours but there does now seem to be some bargain hunters out now which is giving a boost to the price and we could see a rise to $38 today. This drop in the price of oil is causing global equities to suffer as well with shares in energy and commodity suppliers feeling the pinch and a general pessimism in most commodity values does not bode well for shares across the world.
Chinese economic numbers are also in focus again with their Trade Balance numbers coming on overnight much less than expected and this has put a dampener on Asian stocks together with a lower open for European indices and U.S. stock futures. After a brief rebound last week caused mainly by bargain hunters, Gold had another negative day’s trading yesterday, it fell $14:50 by the close last night and is heading once again to the near term support at $1046 on slowing Asian demand.
Trading Diary:
10:35am All done next door after a successful test drive through the Suffolk countryside and I’m back home now. Got some emails to catch up on plus I’ll have a glance at my charts soon as well.
11:15am I am now in a ‘short’ trendFX strategy-1 position on my S&P500 chart with a 21 pip stop loss. There is the same opportunity on the FTSE100 as well but there is generally more movement on the U.S. index even though the stop loss is double.
13:40pm It’s time for a quick lunch out at the Lord Nelson so I’ve brought my stop upto +50 pips to protect some of my profit as we get into a period of high volatility during the U.S. trading session open. Back in an hour or so.
15:55pm Came out of my S&P position a short while ago as the price seems to have hit a small support level at 2052 where buyers are coming in, my trade has managed +186 pips. I thinks that’s probably ok for a daily score so I’m finished with the markets until tomorrow.
07:15am Early start for me today as I am helping a neighbour with repairs to his vintage car, so no trading unless we get finished earlier than anticipated.
Market Update:
After an encouraging jobs report from the U.S. on Friday, the markets are all ready for good moves at the start of this new trading week. Equity markets here in the UK and in the United States had a largely flat November but the Germans did buck that trend with their dax 30 index finishing last month up by nearly 600 points although last week it gave back 408 of those pips.
This week sees a raft of economic news from China, the world’s second largest economy so most markets will inevitably be affected by their trade balance and inflation number when they’re released in the next few days and then retail sales on Saturday. Another big focus this week will be crude oil values due to OPEC’s decision to keep their daily production levels steady at 31.8 million barrels instead of reducing that number as many of their members had wished for. Countries that rely on oil revenue to balance their books have been having a hard time over the last few years since the pric eof crude fell from around $107 per barrel in June 2014 to its current price of just under $40. Larger OPEC members including Saudi Arabia are determined to force U.S. shale producers out of the market but unfortunately many smaller African members are finding it hard to survive with such low oil prices.
07:55am I’m at home for most of today and unusually I will be watching my charts this morning while catching up on emails even though it’s Non Farm Payrolls Day.
Market Update:
The main news in the markets yesterday while I was away from my charts was the fact that Mario Draghi and the European Central Bank did not go as far as expected in extending his asset purchase programme and he also left the key interest rate on hold at 0.05%when many commentators were calling for a fall to show greater intent in trying to get the European economy kick-started again. The main equity markets fell yesterday with the German Dax-30 losing its greatest amount this year and the London FTSE100 falls rivaling last Decembers when it dropped 198 points on the 12th of the month.
Today’s focus will be on the U.S. jobs numbers and traders are expecting a figure of around 200,00 new jobs which if achieved gives the Fed a concrete reason to raise interest rates later this month although I believe the number will be closer to 190,000 after speaking to traders in New York last night. Gold seems to have found a temporary support around the £1050 level which it bounced off yesterday again and rose slightly, up to $1062 where it closed last night, although it’s slightly down again this morning – currently $1059.90. OPEC meetings in Vienna today will see a large majority of members pressing Saudi Arabia to cut production in an attempt to stabilise the price so watch for reactions on the WTI Crude and Brent Oil charts.
Trading Diary:
08:50am Not much happening on my charts (as I would expect) so I am off on a cycle ride for an hour or so.
12:30pm Charts have been quiet as I thought so no trades to report. Out to lunch now and then round of golf this afternoon – back to the markets on Monday.
09:45am Slightly later start to my trading day as I have had some broadband problems earlier with both my main and back-up internet supply — all seems ok now though.
No trading or Market Update tomorrow (Thursday) I’m in London all day.
Market Update:
Markets in Europe and the U.S have started December quite bullish with the encouraging Construction Spending numbers in the United States released yesterday afternoon giving a boost to the S&P500 and Dow Jones 30 indices. There was less than welcome ISM Manufacturing figures which came in under 50 but this did not seem to dent traders bullish sentiment. As a result, Europe has largely opened positively this morning with the London FTSE100 closing in quickly on its near-term resistance at 6450. Trading volumes are expected to slow tomorrow though as traders get in position for Friday’s U.S. employment numbers although markets could be volatile tonight as we will be hearing from Fed chairman Janet Yellen at U.S. lunchtime and she will no doubt give some hints and comment regarding this month’s rate decision.
As it is Wednesday once more, we have the Crude Oil stock situation in the United States and expectations are for a fall in stocks by around 600,00 barrels. Oil traders from all around the world watch this announcement carefully and large movements on all crude oil charts usually occur late afternoon (UK time)
Trading Diary:
11:05am There is a possible UTB pattern setting up on my S&P500 chart.
11:30am I am now in a ‘short’ UTB position on my S&P500 chart with a 30 pip stop loss.
12:25pm Now in a ‘short’ trendFX position as well, this time on my German Dax-30 chart. The stop loss is 22 pips.
13:20pm The U.S. trading session is just about to get underway and as both my trades are doing reasonably well (but not hit their targets yet) I have brought my stop losses up to break even in case the volatility causes a rapid retrace. I shall keep an eye on my charts now until things settle down.
14:05pm Markets are becoming increasingly volatile and quick moving and I also want to pop out for a quick bit of lunch so I have closed off both trades within the last 15 minutes. More details when I return.
15:20pm Back home now and here are the results of the two trades I took this morning. The S&P500 UTB ‘short’ position with a 30 pip stop loss came in at +37 pips and my Dax-30 ‘short’ managed +40 pips.
16:00pm Out now for a couple of hours so no more trading for the day.
07:20am At home for most of the day catching up on emails and doing some chart watching as well so any trades I have will be reported here.
Market Update:
We are looking at a fairly positive start to the European session today on the first day of a new trading month after the overnight Asian ended well overall. Normally the Christmas month is fairly quiet due to traders on extended holidays but there’s going to be plenty of high quality trading opportunities as the Federal Reserve and ECB are making major announcements in the next few weeks which is going to influence the markets in the first few months of 2016.
There was underwhelming Chinese PMI numbers out last night and this has prompted traders to believe that their government may well continue with the stimulus programme for slightly longer so yet again we have the bad news is good news syndrome that is quite normal across trading floors. Gold values have continued to rise above the low of $1052 that it hit last Friday although if equities continue to rise, investors will keep selling this safe haven metal and the price will continue down to the next support at $1040 which it’s not been near since 2010.
Trading Diary:
09:05am Just back from a quick cycle ride and there’s a small possibility of a ‘short’ trade on lining up on my S&P500 chart.
09:15am The trade I mentioned has now triggered as the price has fallen sufficiently — it’s a trendFX strategy-3 trade and my stop loss is 26 pips.
11:20am Just checked my charts and seen that my S&P500 position has been stopped out at -26 pips. Off into town now for errands and lunch so a break from trading for a few hours.
16:00pm Got back home a short while ago but nothing much to see on my charts so that’s it for the day as far as the markets are concerned.
