07:50am There is a bank holiday in the U.S. today (Martin Luther King Day) so markets could be quieter than usual so I shall not be too bothered about watching any charts today. Back trading tomorrow though.
Market Update:
Apart from the U.S. bank holiday, the main news today is the fall in Crude Oil values as sanctions against Iran were lifted yesterday. UK Brent Crude has fallen heavily this morning and is now looking as though it will hit the $28 level at some time today. Unusually U.S. WTI Crude is actually sitting at a higher level this morning ($28:65 vs $28:15) which I cannot remember ever seeing since I’ve been trading the commodity. Although WTI Crude futures price is currently $28:65 this morning, there is evidence that it is physically being sold in the U.S. for $25:00 per barrel over the last week just to alleviate the large glut in storage as the U.S. has almost run out of storage space.
Asian markets ended mixed but mainly positive on news that the People’s Bank Of China has stepped in to limit capital outflows to try to stop further speculation in the Yuan which would further devalue the currency. With no big moves overnight in Asian and the U.S. bank holiday there is little chance of big moves in European and U.S. equity markets today but with low volume sometimes comes volatility so watch out if you’re trading today.
08:40am Late start for me and no trading today as I have the builders in again and I shall be giving them a hand through the day.
Market Update:
Main news again this morning is from Asia, the Chinese equity market has officially turned into a bear market as it has now lost 20% of its value since last year’s high. Overnight it lost 4% at its worst and settled 3.6% down as worries over the real situation of the economy emerges, with traders doubting economic figures being released by the Chinese government.
As I write I can see that U.S. WTI Crude is lining up for further falls and will soon be under the significant support level at $30, it is currently sitting at $30:13 with a few of the timeframes with my MMOSc indicator very much oversold. Unusually, UK Brent Crude is at the same level at the moment as WTI, it is usually upto a dollar higher.
With all the pessimism surrounding many markets this morning, the safe haven assets of Gold and the Japanese Yen are good places to put your money, after a strong fall in the Gold price yesterday afternoon it has almost regained all those losses overnight and is currently sitting at $1083:90. Plenty of economic news out in the U.S. later today so looking forward to an interesting day’s trading.
07:25am Early start for me this morning as I have a busy day catching up on emails after a last minute invitation to clay pigeon shooting in Surrey kept me out of the house all of yesterday. If I have any trades I will report the details here through the day.
Market Update:
The main news yesterday in the markets was the fact that UK Brent Crude values fell below $30 briefly, following U.S. WTI’s fall under that level on Tuesday although bargain hunters have pushed prices up for both slightly. The weekly Crude Oil stock level announcement in the U.S. showed another rise and with a continuing global glut with lessening demand, the price was always going to be under pressure. News recently released is also hinting that Iranian sanctions are to be lifted early next week which will mean that oil exports from the country will resume and this can only push the price further down as they fight for market share in this overcrowded sector.
Equity markets suffered from the falling oil prices with Asian markets ending largely down with the Chinese Shanghai Composite bucking the bearish trend by ending almost 2% up. In the U.S. the S&P500 index ended down 2.50% and finished below the 1900 level for the first time in four months. The Gold chart is looking slightly bullish once gain after a bout of profit taking that started last Friday.
Trading Diary:
08:00am Just about to go off on a cycle ride with a neigbour but seen a possible short on the NZD/USD forex pair.
08:20am Now in a ‘short’ position on the above mentioned chart using a trendFX strategy-1 pattern, my stop loss is 18 pips. Off for the ride now..
11:25am The price on the NZD/USD has gone below the support level I highlighted on my daily ‘Trading Guidance’ email this morning so I’ve closed off the trade at +59 pips.
12:20pm Out to lunch……
16:30pm No more trades to report, I had an unscheduled round of golf after lunch and only just got back home.
08:50am A nice relaxed start for me today after a very late night out and I will report any trades I have through the day here in the diary.
No trading or Market Update tomorrow as I am away all day on a Clay Pigeon Shoot, back here on Thursday.
Market Update:
China is leading the news again this morning where reports state that the People’s Bank of China intervened multiple times in the past 24 hours in the offshore Yuan market to prop up its currency. This news plus the large losses suffered on the Hang Seng and Japan’s Nikkei 225 index overnight looked to affect the European open this morning but after U.S. equities ended up slightly last night due to a late rally the FTSE100, Dax-30 and CAC-40 have started Tuesday’s trading session relatively positively without too much concern for Asian pessimism.
Crude oil prices are yet again under pressure with the U.S. WTI Crude price looking squarely at the $30 this morning, early it touched a low of $30:39 but has bounced up to $30:69 currently. The WTI and Brent Crude movement today will affect equity markets through the session more than it did last year so there should be an interesting day’s trading ahead. Gold’s recent rise is struggling slightly as safe haven investors buying spree is being countered by a slowing Asian demand for the metal, it has now dropped firmly below the $1100 level and the daily chart is looking slightly bearish this morning as it heads towards its 50-day moving average.
Trading Diary:
09:15am Just got into a ‘long’ position on my German Dax-30 chart. It’s a trendFX strategy-3 set-up and my stop loss is a whopping 51 pips even though I am working off a 15 minute chart, this figure reflects the volatility in the markets at the moment.
10:40am In general, equity markets are rebounding upwards this morning and I am now in another ‘long’ trade, this time it’s on my FTSE100 chart with a similiar trendFX strategy-3 set-up. My stop loss on this trade is just 14 pips.
11:20am A neighbour has just invited me out for a cycle ride so as both my trades are happily in profit I’ve closed them off. The Dax trade has come in at +131 pips and my FTSE100 position ended at +31 pips
12:55pm Now in a ‘long’ position on my WTI Crude chart, it’s a trendFX strategy-1 set-up with a 23 pip stop loss.
14:20pm The WTI Crude chart is starting to become slightly more volatile as the U.S. trading sessions gets underway and the price has retreated back from the high it reached 15 minutes ago. My score is +56 pips and I’m happy with my total of 218 pips today so no more glancing at my charts for the rest of the afternoon.
07:55am Nice lazy day at home today so if I have any trades I will report them here.
Market Update:
Equity markets in Asian have again suffered large losses and the bearish sentiment was expected to affect the European open but futures markets are showing that they’re holding up fairly well at the moment although the official open in a few minutes may show a different story. The Japanese Nikkei 225 index has not done too badly but the Hang Seng has ended down 550 points (-2.69%) and the Shanghai Composite has fared even worse at -5.29% on continuing worries over the Chinese economy. As a relatively secretive country, investors are not quite sure whether the Chinese government is always telling the true story as there is a very large percentage of private individuals in China who trade daily so their optimism has to be kept up in times of turmoil.
Another reason for caution in the markets is the continuing drop in oil values, with the U.S. WTI Crude now at a lower level than the 2008 low of $33.22 and is currently sitting at $32.50 and looking to test Friday’s $32.00 level again. Last Friday saw encouraging employment numbers from the U.S. which in some ways vindicated the Fed’s decision to raise their interest rates last month but the optimism did not spill into equity markets as the Dow Jones ended the day down 168 points and 1,079 points down for the week. The S&P had similiar percentage losses and is now sitting around the 1900 level where it has bounced up from before so watch out for bullish trading opportunies this week.
Trading Diary:
08:15am Nothing much to see on my collection of favourite charts so I am off for a cycle ride in the wind & rain.
10:50am Back home but nothing to report trading wise yet.
14:25pm Just back from lunch and I can see a possible UTB pattern setting up on my Brent chart.
14:45pm I am now in a ‘short’ position on my Brent Crude Oil chart, my stop loss is 26 pips.
16:40pm Just closed off my Brent UTB trade at $31:92 giving me +88 pips. This is the first time I can remember where the value of U.S. WTI Crude and UK Brent Crude oil is roughly the same price per barrel.
08:15am I shall be here in my study this morning catching up on emails although no trading for me as I do not watch any charts on U.S. Non Farm Payrolls Day.
Market Update:
Main financial news again today is from China where authorities abandoned the ‘circuit breaker’ experiment last night which has been blamed for the panic selling from small investors this week. The Shanghai Composite has ended up this morning by 1.9% after the Chinese government has intervened to prop up the markets and this rise has given the European session a positive start to the last trading session of the week. They are also intervening to devalue their currency to help exporters.
An interesting Bloomberg article this morning shows the comparative state of the Chinese stock market, in the U.S. the top 30 companies have a price/earnings ratio of around 18 which many analysts consider overvalued but in China the P/E ratio is 61.
As it’s the first trading Friday of the month, we have the U.S. employment figures out today and expectations are for a rise in new jobs of just over 200,000 and seasonal jobs for the Christmas period may help this number be realised. Falls in the Crude Oil market has been quite sharp in this first week of the year but a minor support has emerged in the U.S. WTI Crude price around $32 although there is still no fundamental reason for any optimism at the moment.
07:20am After a very busy day yesterday I am having a relaxing time at home today so if I have any trades they will be reported here as they occur.
Market Update:
The main news in the markets today is the fact that trading has been halted for the second time this week on the Chinese stock market. The ‘Circuit-Breaker’ comes into effect when the market drop 5% or more and when it happened on Monday, Chinese government officials said it was a ‘rare occurrence’ but there’s no comment after today’s halt in trading. The government has also spent around £13billion in an attempt to prop up the currency and bond markets and also extended the ban on large companies selling large tranches of shares but to avail so far. Overnight U.S. equity futures have fallen further and the European markets opened a few minutes ago with large gaps down with the FTSE 100 currently sitting at 5955, a level last seen in the middle of December.
Oil markets are still very bearish with news that global stocks are still at unmanageable levels and no sign that the larger OPEC members are going to curb production. Saudi Arabia are hoping that new sanctions on Iran will give then a chance to steal more market share although in the end they may simply buy that share by heavy discounting – not good news for oil producing nations in the next few months. Gold however is benefiting from all this market volatility and and had another positive session yesterday – it closed up $21.30 at $1093.50 and is currently up over $3 this morning after the Asian session.
Trading Diary:
09:05am Not much happening on my charts signal-wise so I am off for a cycle ride.
11:15am Just got into a ‘short’ position on the German Dax-30 index. It’s a trendFX strategy-1 set-up with a 35 pip stop loss.
15:40pm Got back from lunch a short while ago and noticed my Dax trade was stopped out at -35 pips. Have some jobs around the house so no more trading for me today.
07:40am No trading for me this morning as I am playing golf but I will be at home this afternoon so I will check my charts then.
Market Update:
After market falls in Asian overnight, the European session is looking fairly bearish this morning. The Chinese purchasing manager’s survey (Caixin Services PMI) which came out early this morning showed a fall in confidence with the economy and the figure of 50.2 is a 17-month low. U.S. index futures are showing a fall throughout the night but economic announcements today will keep traders alert, there is a raft of PMI numbers out through the day plus FOMC minutes towards the end of the U.S. trading session.
The crude oil market is returning to its bearish trend as tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran have failed to lift the price and traders are concentrating more on the continuing over production from both OPEC members and the U.S. Shale producers. WTI Crude is currently sitting at $35.73 and looking as though more falls are on the cards in the next few hours. The Gold price is enjoying a brief boost on shaky equity markets together with the problems in the Middle East plus the reported North Korean bomb experiments which has been widely condemned this morning – it rose just over $3.50 yesterday to $1077.30 and this morning it’s higher still at $1081.30.
Trading Diary:
22:05pm I did not get back home until late afternoon and was too tired to start watching charts so no trades to report for today.
07:55am My trading year starts today, I shall be here at home for most of the day catching up on emails and doing some chart watching from time to time. Any trades I have will be reported here through the day.
Market Update:
After yesterday’s negative start to 2016 in the markets, expectations are for some normality today. The large falls in Chinese shares was caused by a number of reasons which started with weak manufacturing numbers which caused an initial fall in indices. The second reason was an expectation that major investors and companies are going to offload large amounts of shares later this week after the government banned them in July from short selling for six months – this restriction is due to be lifted on Friday and traders are bracing themselves for further falls although there are now rumours that this restriction maybe kept in place to stabilise the market. There is also a safety net for Chinese equities when they fall over 7% in one day and when this occurs, trading will be halted for the remainder of the session, this was triggered early yesterday but today we are also seeing further falls.
Here is Europe we experienced a mainly bearish day on the first trading session of the new year and this morning’s price action is showing further falls after the overnight Asian session was largely negative as well. In the U.S. both main indices ended in the red, the wider S&P500 lost over 1.5% by the close, falling 31.28 points to 2012.66. Increasing tensions in the Middle East between Saudi Arabia and Iran that now seems to be spreading across further countries caused concerns in oil production gave U.S. WTI Crude an early session boost from $37:00 upto a high of $38:30 although the price has dropped back down and is currently trading at $36:69 as news that Saudi oil producers want to force the price back down to punish Iran for the attack on their embassy in Tehran.
Trading Diary:
08:55am At the moment I can only see just one possible trade developing on my group of six favourite charts – the price on my WTI Crude chart looks to be reversing upwards with two-thirds of a UTB pattern.
09:10am The WTI price has risen far enough to trigger a ‘long’ trade so I am now in a UTB trade with a 16 pip stop loss.
10:00am Out of my trade now, the WTI price has reversed at 36.92 and I have managed to cover my risk with a +16 pip profit. A trendFX pattern may complete in a minute so I could be back in the market.
10:20am I got into a ‘short’ position on my WTI Crude chart a short while ago, this time my stop loss is 17 pips.
12:30pm Lunch is beckoning at the Lord Nelson so I’ve just closed off my 2nd WTI position — it has ended up at +29 pips. I will send out some chart screenshots showing full details of my trades to students when I get back.
15:05pm Been back home for half an hour or so but no trade opportunities have shown up so I’m closing my charts off and going for a cycle ride.
09:10am This is my last ‘Market Update’ for 2015 as I am off on a 2-week Christmas break in Norfolk later today.
I would like to take this opportunity to wish all readers a Very Merry Christmas and a Happy & Prosperous New Year. I shall be back here on Tuesday 5th January 2016.
Market Update:
After a fairly bullish week, U.S. equities were dragged down by falling energy sector and a sell-off in Goldman Sachs shares and the S&P500 ended the day over 1.5% down at 2041.89 and after the overnight Asian session the futures are sitting at 2028.10 as the index falls towards the near term support line at 2003.50. In contrast to the movement this week, overall this main U.S. index has not gained any points in 2015 as it started this year at 2057 and during August fell as low as 1834. With Janet Yellen and the Federal Reserve signalling that the hangover from the 2007/08 recession is now over after she raised the U.S. interest rate, we may see the S&P rise upto the 2200 level in the first few months of 2016 if the London traders I spoke to yesterday are correct.
There is not the same optimism for the Crude Oil market however with continued over production likely in the first quarter of the new year, the U.S. WTI Crude is currently sitting around its lowest level since 2009 and although many commodity traders are expecting a bounce off the $34.50 level as we end the month, there will probably be more bearish moves as we fall towards the expected support at $30. Once that level is reached, it is thought that OPEC will finally hold up the white flag and call a halt to the price war with America so that calm can be restored to the market and everyone can start making some money. Luckily the Scots voted against independence !
