08:20am Back after a 3-day break away, I shall be mainly be here at home today catching up on emails and doing some chart watching.
Market Update:
U.S. markets had a mixed trading session yesterday on low volumes ahead of a two day meeting to decide on interest rates, the broad S&P-500 index finished slightly down and the Dow Jones index of top 30 companies ended just 0.09% up at 17,229. Overnight the Asian equity markets had a mainly bearish session with Sydney’s ASX-200 index falling the most (-1.41%) and others coming in down ahead of the Fed decision.
European stocks have opened this morning with a slightly bearish sentiment as traders weigh up the Crude Oil price which now seems to have hit a small resistance level and the rise we’ve seen in the last month has now come to a temporary halt as Iran are refusing to join in with other major producers and come to some agreement over production levels – they have a lot of catching up to do so want to pump out as much as possible.
Gold is down for a third day in a row despite no great advances in equities, although the price does seem to have found some minor support at its 20-day moving average on the daily chart.
Trading Diary:
09:25am Just waiting to see if the WTI Crude price drops below $36:31, if it does it will trigger a ‘short’ trendFX trade.
09:35am The WTI price has dropped sufficiently so I am now in a ‘short’ position with a 19 pip stop loss. It’s a trendFX strategy-1 set-up.
09:50am My WTI trade is coming along ok so I’m leaving it running and going off for a cycle ride with a neighbour, back in an hour or so.
11:55am Just checked my charts and seen that my WTI position has been stopped out at -19 pips.
14:35pm Just returned from a quick lunch out and there’s nothing much to see on my charts so I am calling it a day – laptop off now.
08:00am I shall be here in the study for a few hours this morning doing Skype calls and emails and then out for the rest of the day playing golf. Back watching the markets on Tuesday after a long weekend break.
Market Update:
Big news for Thursday’s trading session here in Europe was Mario Draghi’s decision to cut borrowing rates in the Eurozone and this news sent equity markets higher on the hope that lower borrowing costs will give a boost to companies balance sheets. He also announced a 30% jump in his money printing exercise (he calls it Asset Purchase) so there will be a lot more money floating about and as banks will now be charged more for keeping money instead of lending it out due to the negative interest rates.
The initial jump in European indices was short lived however and the ECB then hinted that there would be no more decreases in the minimum lending rate so many traders (including myself) joined in on the bearish trend that ensued the German Dax-30 ended down well over 200 points after volatile moves which reached a point shy of the 10,000 mark. The U.S market did fall in line with European equities to certain extent but in the overnight futures market they have recovered almost all the losses and are looking quite bullish leading up to the open at lunchtime (UK time.
Trading Diary:
09:55am Did get into a ‘long’ position on my S&P500 chart a short while ago using my trendFX collection of strategies. My stop loss is 26 pips, slightly lower than yesterday’s risk but the markets are more quiet today.
11:15am Off out soon so I have closed off my S&P500 trade at +31 pips.
07:55am Early start for me today as I have meetings with builders this morning but I shall be back here at home by lunchtime to do some chart watching and catching up on emails.
Market Update:
Despite very low volumes in equity markets at the moment, U.S. markets finished yesterday slightly up and the overnight Asian trading session also saw gains after Chinese CPI numbers came in better than expected. European markets will be subdued this morning ahead of the ECB rate announcement at lunchtime today and we also have the U.S. Fed decision next week and this is the main reason for low trading volumes at the moment.
Crude oil is still experiencing a bullish trend on the daily chart although it has now hit a small resistance level at $38:00 which previously appeared in January before it fell further to under $30:00. It is currently trading at $38:05 slightly down on the overnight level. The Gold daily chart is suffering from some profit-taking still with a resistance now at $1278 although the chart is quite oversold so there maybe further rises soon – watch for this reaction if equity markets fall.
Trading Diary:
14:30pm Just sat down at my desk and had a quick scan of my favourite few charts and nothing very exciting trade-wise although the German Dax-30 has reacted quite strongly to the ECB interest rate decision so I’ll keep an eye on that. I’ll have another look in a few hours.
17:35pm Just taken a cheeky ‘short’ trade on the Dax-30 15min chart, it’s a trendFX position and due to the extreme volatility the stop loss is 71 pips.
19:20pm I set my stop loss upto break even on the Dax position a short while ago and waited to see just how far down the price would go – but volume has dropped right off (understandably) and the price has started to come up so I’ve closed the trade off at +49 pips.
08:55am Had an early start this morning with 3 Skype calls with budding traders already – and I shall be here in my study for the next 3 or 4 hours catching up on emails and watching charts. My new ‘Trade-Alert’ service began yesterday so I shall be scanning a group of 20-25 charts as well looking at developing Triangle Trades.
Market Update:
A depressed Crude Oil price and disappointing Chinese trade data kept a lid on bulls during the overnight Asian session, most indices ended the session down – the only exception was Sydney’s ASX-200 which finished up 46 pips at 5215. U.S. WTI crude Oil has enjoyed a good run-up over the last month despite record world stocks, the low was $26 and it’s risen over $12 during this current bullish move but this momentum has slowed dramatically this week with a bearish reversal candle forming on the weekly chart while also being overbought. Later today we have the U.S. Crude Oil Inventories so there should be some interesting moves in the next few days.
U.S. equities had a largely negative trading session on Tuesday due mainly to the same reasons I have highlighted above and there is also the European Central Bank rate decision tomorrow for traders to absorb – the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting and interest rate announcement is due next Wednesday so market volume across the Atlantic will slow in the lead up to that.
Gold seems to have reached a high point in its current bull move, it got to $1280 on Friday and since then has failed a couple of times to breach that level and a move down to $1240 in the next few weeks looks likely.
Trading Diary:
09:30am Possible UTB pattern setting up on my Gold chart at the moment – a trade will trigger if the price drops below $1256:60 in the next 30 minutes or so.
11:00am The above trade came to nothing but there could now be a ‘short’ trendFX position on the 1hr chart. The price is coming down quite quickly so I should know in a short while.
11:10am The Gold trendFX position has triggered so I am in a ‘short’ position with a 51 pip stop loss – slightly higher than usual as I am working on a 1hr timeframe.
11:55am I’ve just got out of my trade for two reasons — 1) happy with a 1:1 profit ratio today (trade made +53 pips) and 2) one of my neighbours has just invited me out on a cycle ride down towards Dunwich on the sea wall and I’m not too bothered about leaving the position open during the volatile U.S. trading session open given what the profit was at the time.
17:25pm After I returned from lunch I did not watch any more charts – happy with my result from the morning.
08:05am Back in front of my charts today after a long weekend break and I shall also be catching up on emails through the day.
My TRADE-ALERT service has begun today which gives traders an early-warning ‘heads-up’ regarding upcoming Triangle Trade opportunities on a range of 20-25 charts – if you’ve not yet had details of this unique service, contact me HERE for full details.
Market Update:
Asian markets suffered falls overnight as the Chinese trade numbers were announced – exports fell over 25% in February compared with the same time last year with imports dropping 13.80%. In Japan, their Nikkei 225 index fell mainly due to a strong Yen which hurts exporters and Sydney’s ASX200 also ended in negative territory, although only by -0.65%.
U.S. markets ended yesterday’s session slightly higher on thin trading – the optimism was mainly due to a rising Crude Oil price, UK Brent Crude is holding above the $40 level for the first time since December last year and the benchmark U.S. WTI Crude is at $37:59 currently, slightly down on last night’s finish. This bullish sentiment is due to a growing willingness of producers in various countries to come to an agreement regarding output with even Saudi Arabia becoming more agreeable.
Gold closed at a 12-month high yesterday as traders are anticipating that the U.S. Fed will not raise interest rates at their meeting next week and equities showed no real enthusiasm during Monday’s session which boosted investors sentiment towards the precious metal.
Trading Diary:
09:30am Not much on my charts yet but if the S&P-500 price drops below 1988:40 in the next 30 minutes it will trigger a ‘short’trade.
09:40am Due to the S&P-500 price drop I am now in a ‘short’ position on that chart. It’s a trendFX strategy-1 set-up with a 29 pip stop loss.
10:55am The price has come down nicely in the last hour but it’s now reversing upwards so I am out of my position with a +30 pip profit.
12:30pm Not had much chance to look at any more charts in the past hour so nothing to report trade-wise — and now off to lunch !
16:00pm Have not watched any charts since being back here after lunch – so no more trades to report.
07:25am I have just sent off my daily ‘Trading-Guidance’ email to subscribers and that’s it for the markets today for me as it’s Non Farm Payrolls day once again, so no chart watching now until Tuesday (I am away for 3-days Sat-Mon)
Market Update:
The Asian session was fairly mixed overnight but ultimately most indices ended slightly up ahead of today’s U.S. jobs number report. The Non Farm Payrolls is expected to show a rise in U.S. employment by around 195,000 and any figure above this will give the Federal Reserve extra ammunition for a June rate rise. U.S. equities ended Thursday’s session up as well with trader optimism high but continued bullishness will also depend on the price of oil — the benchmark WTI Crude is at a possible critical level this morning where it may fail to rise above the important $35 level and retreat back as talks to limit worldwide production are coming to nothing so far.
The value of Gold hit a 13-month high yesterday at $1268:20 as traders took money out of equities ahead of the Non Farm Payroll announcement but both the daily and weekly charts are overbought, so we may see some profit taking in the next few days.
09:25am A nice late start to my day, I’ve already had a bracing cycle ride along the coastal path and now the rest of the morning will be spent here in the study catching up on emails, Skype calls and also doing some chart watching.
Market Update:
Wednesday is the U.S. oil stock numbers release day as you probably know and even though numbers where up quite significantly (up over 10 million barrels) futures traders did not take the opportunity to sell and the price of WTI Crude rose 75 cents on the day to end at $34:71. The bullish sentiment seems to be based on the rumours that forthcoming meetings are going limit production between large producers including Saudi Arabia and Russia and also the fact that U.S. production has dropped for the 6th consecutive week. Having said that, my daily WTI chart does hint at a fall soon with the price quite overbought and this morning the price has fallen to $34:58 currently with the 4hr chart looking quite bearish at the moment.
Equities in the U.S. are starting to tread water ahead of tomorrow’s monthly job figures and futures are fairly flat this morning after a bullish end to yesterday;s session caused mainly by the spike in oil prices. Janet Yellen and the FOMC have stated in the past that any rate rise will be data dependent so tomorrow’s Non Farm Payroll numbers will be watched keenly by traders all around the world in the hope they can guess whether we will see a rise in U.S. interest rates in June – the bookies favourite at the moment.
Asian equities were also fairly subdued overnight in the run-up to Non Farm Payrolls and the European open this morning shows mixed trading across the indices with lower than usual volume.
Trading Diary:
12:10pm Not had much time to look at my charts this morning as I’ve been on Skype for most of the time but I’ve just had a quick glance and there’s a couple of possibilities.
13:15pm If the S&P-500 price drops below 1982:80 in the next hour or so it will trigger a trendFX startegy-3 position. The U.S. trading session open is soon so it is quite a risky trade if the price does drop and not one for new/inexperienced traders.
13:40pm The S&P-500 price has dropped so I am in the above position, my stop loss is 30 pips.
14:55pm The price has been quite volatile (as expected) so I am now out of my position as it looked like a bullish reversal was taking hold. I managed +31 pips.
08:45am CET (07:45 UK time) No trading again for me today, I have some errands to run this morning and then travelling back to the UK late this afternoon.
Market Update:
After a bullish finish to the U.S. session last night where equities had their biggest rise for seven weeks, the Asian session also ended up with the Australian ASX-200 rising over 2% to break the 5000 level and establish a short-term support level at 4830. The Japanese Nikkei-225 was also heading up for most of the session and finished over 4% up to finish at 16,746 (+661 points) and Chinese indices posted good results even though the rating agency Moody’s have cut the country’s credit rating on growth and debt concerns.
In the Crude Oil market there are the weekly U.S. stock levels being announced this afternoon and expectations are for a build of around 2.5 million barrels, down on last weeks numbers by about a million. WTI Crude seems to have hit a resistance level at $34:50 which stretches back around 4 weeks so we could see a resumption of the down trend soon.
Gold has been enjoying a bullish run as equities suffered for the first two months of 2016 but there are signs on the daily chart that some profit taking is emerging, there are a few bearish reversal candles lately and a short-term resistance at $1250 which could strengthen this week – keep an eye on that level for trading opportunities.
08:55am CET (07:55 UK time) Still not back home yet so probably no trading today as the internet is proving quite unreliable – will be returning home on Thursday I am predicting.
Market Update:
January and February have not been great months for equity markets so perhaps March can change the trend as we move towards the end of the first quarter of 2016. UK and U.S. markets are largely unchanged over the past month but the German Dax-30 has suffered overall losses and is well down on its 2015 close and is now sitting at the same level it was in September 2014 having wiped out all of 2015′s rise.
Asian markets ended mostly positively after the People’s Bank of China announced the lowering of their reserve requirement ratios on its banks by 0.5% in the hope that it will push more cash into the Chinese economy and this rise in equities was despite manufacturing numbers that came out lower again – the 7th drop in a row. There seemed to be no surprises regarding the Chinese bank’s policy announcement as the G20 meeting has just ended so the finer details were probably discussed with other countries beforehand.
Oil markets are continuing their slow rise with the U.S. benchmark WTI now at $34:02 having moved up just under a Dollar yesterday. Here in Europe, Brent Crude is similarly bullish at $35:92 currently, well off its lows of $27:00 just a few months ago.
08:00am Back home now after two days away in Norfolk and I shall be spending most of the day putting the finishing touches to my Triangle-Trading-System Part-2 Manual which is being released in the next few days. If I do manage to do any chart watching as well, I will report any trades I have below.
I shall be back trading next Tuesday after a long weekend away.
Market Update:
The main news today in the markets is the G20 meeting in Shanghai where finance ministers are gathering together to talk about financial stimulus, oil prices and interest rates in the hope of pulling the world economy out of the doldrums it seems to have slipped into this year. U.S. equity markets had a positive finish yesterday on news that OPEC and Russia are to have formal meetings over oil production limits and this also helped WTI Crude to rise during Thursday’s session by 86 cents to finish at $32:98 and this morning it is slightly up on that level at $33:27.
There has been a positive start in European markets this morning after a fairly optimistic Asian session overnight with the Hang Seng index standing out with a rise of 475 points (+2.56%) to end at 19,364. The german Dax-30 is leading the charge today and is up over 1.7% already after just an hour’s trading. Not much economic news out today to move the markets but watch out for any surprises in the many G20 speeches today, you can keep abreast of breaking news on Bloomberg.
Trading Diary:
10:55am Not been watching my charts at all this morning but had a phone call 5 minutes ago from a trader friend of mine asking whether I thought the S&P-500 was going to fall in the next few hours. Now I’ve looked at the chart I can see a potential UTB pattern setting up so I shall keep an eye on that now. Thank you Graham !
11:10am In a ‘short’ position now on the S&P-500, the UTB trade did trigger. My stop loss is 18 pips.
15:05pm I must admit I had forgotten about this trade as I was concentrating on the manual but back from lunch now and I have closed the position off at +113 pips.
