08:25am Late market update as I’ve had a busy morning – friends staying for a few days and a WTI Crude Oil trade just entered (details below)
Away tomorrow so back trading on Friday
Market Update:
Traders concentration at the moment is angling towards the Fed meeting minutes later tonight so markets could be quieter than usual today ahead of the announcement. Investors are keen to see the overall sentiment towards an interest rate rise at the last FOMC meeting and this will give hints regarding the timing for a possible rise in April.
Encouraging data from China overnight together with some rise in Crude Oil values has given a slight boost to equity markets, although Asian markets still appear to be in the doldrums at the moment. European indices are mixed this morning with gains in London but the German Dax-30 index under some pressure in the first hour of trading. U.S. Crude Oil Inventory numbers out later today will give more momentum to the WTI and Brent Crude charts and also affect equity markets around the same time as the Fed minutes announcement – a busy trading afternoon ahead ?
Trading Diary:
08:30am As detailed above, I am in an early trade this morning, it’s a ‘long’ trendFX strategy-1 position on my WTI Crude 30min chart. My stop loss is 15 pips and I do not envisage it being a lengthy trade as there is the U.S. oil stock numbers out later today.
10:10am The WTI price has risen quite well but now seems to be consolidating so I am now out of my position at +21 pips. Out for cycle ride now, I delayed it as I was watching this trade more carefully than I usually do.
07:55am Nice relaxing day at home so if I have any trades they will be reported here.
Market Update:
Yesterday’s Global Financial Stability Report released by the IMF has put a slight dampener on any bullish sentiment in equity markets as it warned of the risk that the slowing Chinese economy is going to have on the rest of the world’s financial markets together with a growing concern over potential problems that large insurance companies are going to pose to stability to global economics. U.S. equities ended Monday’s session lower with the S&P 500 reversing at 2080 long term resistance level and is looking weak again in futures trading this morning.
The overnight Asian session was fairly bearish with the Japanese Nikkei 225 index falling 2.4% on a stronger Yen and falling oil prices and Chinese equities did not fair much better with the Hang Seng Index down 1.6% although the wider Shanghai Composite did manage to end the session slightly up.
European markets are set to open lower after falls in U.S. equities yesterday afternoon, the German Dax-30 index is starting a bearish trend on the daily chart after a week or so of sideways movements. With this pessimism in equities, Gold looks to gain some ground, it has just reversed off its 50-day moving average and is looking fairly bullish this morning. It had a negative day on Monday but is already well up on the $1215.11 close level yesterday – it is currently sitting at $1228.12
Trading Diary:
12:20pm Been a quiet day so far on my charts so nothing to report – out for lunch soon with some fellow traders and then back later to see if there are any trade opportunities.
16:05pm Got back home an hour ago but nothing of interest on my charts so I am closing down the screens for the day. Back tomorrow morning.
07:45am I was planning to be at home today doing some chart watching but I am now helping a friend move his car collection for most of the day – back trading the markets tomorrow.
Market Update:
Following encouraging U.S. jobs data the Dow Jones 30 and S&P 500 both finished up on Friday despite falling Crude Oil prices. The Non Farm Payrolls numbers that were released Friday lunchtime (European time) showed that there was an increase of 215,000 jobs in March which came in ahead of the expected 205k with construction, healthcare and retail positions leading the increase and manufacturing jobs declining.
This optimism has not transferred across to the over night Asian trading session today where traders seem more concerned about the fall oil prices instead and European indices are also set to open slightly down in short while. The U.S. WTI Crude price hit its 200-day moving average a few weeks ago and reversed downwards and has not really recovered since and disagreements over production levels are still causing investor worries so more falls look inevitable.
With bullish equity markets it is understandable to see the price of Gold coming under pressure, this safe-haven commodity fell $27 at one stage on Friday before recovering and bouncing once again off its 50-day moving average. Today’s movement so far is looking slightly bearish once again and the price is currently sitting at $1217.48 down on Friday’s close of $1222.11
07:55am Another day at home ahead of a long weekend away – any trades I have will be reported below.
Market Update:
Markets are still riding high on Janet Yellen’s remarks on Tuesday when she hinted that an April rate rise was off the table and traders are now wondering whether there is any likelihood that June is going to host a rise in the minimum lending rate in the U.S.
The overnight Asian markets finished mixed but with a general air of optimism with the exception of the Japanese Nikkei 225 which fell mainly on the strength of the Yen. This sentiment has not spilled over to the European open this morning where the Dax-30, CAC-40 and FTSE-100 are both down slightly as I write and price action will probably be fairly limited today ahead of tomorrow’s U.S. jobs data. As the world’s largest economy, these numbers are probably the most important piece of data that is released during the month so traders start early in getting their positions right before tomorrow lunchtime’s announcement.
The Gold price did surge on U.S. interest rate expectations on Tuesday evening but over the last 24 hrs it has retraced backwards to finish yesterday down almost $16 at $1224.90 although it has risen slightly this morning, currently sitting at $1229.70.
Trading Diary:
10:10am Not much to see on my favourite charts, so I am off for a cycle ride for an hour or so.
11:55am Back now and just scanned my charts but nothing to see so going to turn off screen now. I shall be back trading on Monday.
08:25am Quiet day at home catching up on emails and doing some chart watching.
Market Update:
Asian markets were generally bullish overnight after encouraging words from Federal Reserve Chief Janet Yellen last night, she has given hints that her rate rise policy should be cautious and emerging risks should be factored in before any decision is made. This was taken by traders as a confirmation that we may not see any rise at the next Fed meeting in April so is a generally good sign for equity markets across the world. This sentiment is spilling over to the European market this morning as most indices are positive after a good start to Wednesday’s session.
The oil market has had a small boost overnight on expectations that today’s U.S. Crude Oil Inventory number will show a slight fall in stocks although counter to this is the fact that Kuwait and Saudi Arabia has announced that their jointly owned and operated Khafji field will resume producing oil at 300,000 barrels a day despite previous agreements to cap output. Gold enjoyed a bullish day after the long weekend break and ended the session at $1242.09 up nearly $21 on the day. It has been in a bearish decline since the second week of March but the price reversed on its 20-day moving average and looks set for more gains this week after Tuesday’s bullish reversal candle.
Trading Diary:
10:45am Not much to get excited about on my charts so far this morning so I am off for a cycle ride along the coastal path for an hour or so.
13:30pm Just back from a quick lunch and I can see a possible ‘long’ trade setting up on my Brent Crude chart.
13:40pm The Brent Crude price has just risen over $40:57 so it has triggered a trendFX strategy-3 trade, my stop loss is exactly 40 pips. We have got the U.S. Crude Oil Inventories number out in an hour but the market is expecting a small number so that should be good for the price but I’ll move my stop up close if I’m still in the trade at announcement time.
15:45pm The Brent chart is becoming quite volatile for some reason so although my trade has been as high as +70 pips, the price is now retreating fairly quickly and I’ve managed to close it at +40 pips giving me a 1:1 profit ratio. That’s it for trading today, back in front of my charts tomorrow morning although I have got a few chart screenshots to send out to my Trade-Alert subscribers so I will do that now before going out.
07:10am Lazy morning at home before flying off for an Easter break this afternoon – back on Wednesday. If I have any trades this morning they will be reported below.
Market Update:
The overnight Asian trading session was pretty pessimistic and that sentiment looks to influence the start of the European session on this last trading day of the week ahead of the Easter break. The Oil price looks to be weakening which is dragging down equities once again, my Brent Crude daily chart has produced a strong reversal signal a few days ago at $42:50 and has retreated from that level over the last few days (if you’d like to see this signal marked on my chart just email me) The U.S. WTI Crude is also in decline after a high stock level report on Wednesday, it reached a high of $41:85 on Tuesday before reversing.
Equity trading volumes in Europe and the U.S. is expected to be low ahead of the Easter weekend although there is some economic news out later today which will move the markets slightly – details here
Trading Diary:
08:25am While I was compiling my daily ‘Trading-Guidance’ sheet a couple of hours ago there were no opportunities on my favourite charts but I’ve just come back to my desk to have a quick look before I go out for a cycle ride and I can see a possible ‘short’ trade setting up on my Brent Crude chart.
08:40am The Brent Crude price has dropped sufficiently to trigger a trendFX ‘short’ position. My stop loss is 22 pips.
09:05am Going for cycle ride with neighbour for a couple of hours along the coastal path to Dunwich, my stop loss on my Brent position is still at 22 pips but I’ve left the target open as the price looks to be quite bearish.
11:15am Back home and my trade is doing ok so I have brought my stop loss upto break even.
11:55am The Brent Crude price seems to have reached a low point and is not going much further down for the time being so I have come out of my position at +54 pips.
12:20pm That’s it for trading today and the week, I shall be back in front of my charts on Wednesday. I hope you have a nice relaxing long weekend break.
07:45am Trying to be at home today so I can catch up on emails and do some Trade-Alerts for Triangle Trading subscribers although a long cycle ride has been suggested this afternoon. If I have any trades I will report them here through the day.
Market Update:
Unfortunately the effects of terrorism did affect the markets yesterday after the horrific events in Brussels, travel and hotel shares were down although most European indices ended slightly up on the day. The overnight Asian session was also downbeat showing that the terrorist threat does stretch across the global economy – although Chinese markets bucked the trend with the Shanghai Composite ending up 11 points and the Shenzhen Composite fairing better at +22 points.
Here in Europe there has been an optimistic start to today’s trading session with the French CAC 40, German Dax 30 and London’s FTSE 100 all showing gains as they open, I suspect ongoing investigations in Brussels will affect sentiment so keep an eye on rolling news channels if you’re trading today.
In the oil market, U.S. WTI Crude took a breather yesterday from its long climb upwards and has developed a bearish reversal candle very close to its 200-day moving average so we may see some profit taking in long contracts ahead of today’s Crude Oil Inventories.
Trading Diary:
09:15am Possible UTB pattern on my FTSE-100 chart.
09:25am I am now in a ‘short’ position on the FTSE-100, it’s a bearish UTB set-up and my stop loss is 11 pips.
09:55am There is also a possible UTB on my Gold chart currently.
11:10am The UTB I’ve been watching for on my Gold chart has not materialised but I am now in a ‘short’ position on the same chart – a trendFX strategy-1 set-up with a 20 pip stop loss. My FTSE trade is still going along slowly, currently at +8 pips.
12:35pm Getting ready for lunch out with some fellow traders so I have just closed off my Gold position at +102 pips and I have brought the stop loss down to break-even on my FTSE position. My take profit level on that trade is set at +11 pips and it’s currently sitting at +5 pips as we head towards the U.S. open.
14:00pm Back from lunch but no more trading for me today as 1) I’m happy with the two trades I’ve completed (the FTSE position ended at +11 pips while I was at lunch) and 2) a bunch of us are off for a cycle ride for a couple of hours. Back tomorrow for one more day of trading before the Easter weekend break.
08:50am Nice relaxing day at home catching up on emails and doing some chart watching so any trades I have will be reported below.
Market Update:
Overnight the Asian market ended mixed with the Shanghai Composite finishing up and also above the important 3000 level for the first time since the beginning of the year even though corporate debt is at record levels, currently 160% of GDP which many in the West believe is unsustainable.
Here in Europe, equities are under pressure from two sides and the most significant is the terrorist attacks in Brussels in the last hour which has sent certain sectors into freefall although Gold will no doubt benefir from its safe-haven status. Traders are also weighing up a U.S. interest rate rise as early as next month after comments yesterday from Dennis Lockhart, the Atlanta Federal Reserve President in which he states that the Fed could raise rates within the month.
Crude oil prices had another bullish day on Monday with U.S. WTI Crude almost at its 200-day moving average although there is some profit taking this morning – it ended yesterday’s session at $41:50 but is down 20 cents currently.
Trading Diary:
09:55am Not much to see on my charts at the moment with prices all over the place – I am off for a cycle ride with a neighbour.
18:10pm No trades to report as I ended up playing golf all afternoon..
07:00am In and out of the house today with errands but I should have some time to do some chart watching so any trades I have will be reported here through the day.
Not trading on Monday so back her eon Tuesday morning.
Market Update:
Asian stocks have rallied overnight with only the Japanese Nikkei 225 index posting a loss on the last trading session of the week. Encouraging house prices and a new yearly high for crude oil prices have kept equities bullish although a strong Yen is weighing heavily on Japanese companies who wish to export their products.
In the U.S. the Dow Jones 30 index finished positively but more importantly reached its highest level of 2016 after 3 months of volatile trading and another bullish day for the wider S&P-500 index will see a similiar milestone reached. The rising crude oil price is helping this bullishness together with news that the Federal Reserve does not envisage more than a couple of interest rate rises this year. The U.S WTI Crude price is now at a 2016 high, ending Thursday’s session just above the $40 level and is rapidly approaching the important 200-day moving average line on its daily chart so we may see a bearish reaction once price rises towards $42.
Trading Diary:
09:05am Nothing much to see on my charts at the moment so going out for cycle ride for an hour or so.
11:30am If the Gold price falls below $1252:70 it will trigger a ‘short’ trendFX trade.
11:40am I am now in a ‘short’ Gold position, my stop loss is 32 pips.
12:35pm Out of my Gold trade for two reasons – firstly I am off out to the pub for lunch with some fellow traders and also the Gold price is starting to reverse back upwards. I have managed a profit of +33 pips.
15:20pm Back from lunch and just had quick glance at my charts – nothing much going on so I am finishing my trading for the day – I hope you all have a nice relaxing weekend.
06:55am Early start for me today as I am helping with a small building project I have up the road, so no trading for me today.
Update – Helping up the road until Thursday evening now.
Market Update:
The Bank of Japan’s decision last night to not provide any further monetary stimulus resulted in a lacklustre Asian session overnight with both the Hang Seng and Nikkei 225 posting small losses at the close a short while ago. The fall in crude oil prices does not help either as Iran is committing itself to a 1 million barrel a day increase on top of the 3 million it produces at the moment this news sent the U.S. WTI Crude price down 66 cents last night to $36:67 where it currently trading this morning.
Equity markets in Europe and the U.S. are expected to be quiet for a lot of the day ahead of the Fed’s interest rate decision at 18:00hrs UK time. It is widely expected that there will be no rise as this month’s FOMC 2-day meeting which ends today but traders will be listening to comments from Janet Yellen to see whether a June rise is on the cards. Trading volume will be low but expect some volatile moves this evening.
