08:30am   Nice relaxing day at home catching up on emails and doing some chart watching.

Market Update:

The London market has got off to a negative start after the May bank holiday break yesterday which mirrors indices in Hong Kong and Japan during the overnight Asian trading session – they both ended in negative territory with the main Tokyo index (Nikkei 225) down over 3% at the close.

The Reserve Bank of Australia cut their minimum lending rate by 0.25% to 1.75% against expectations and this gave a boost the the ASX 200 index in Sydney but there was a negative reaction to the Australian Dollar, the AUD/USD forex pair is now well off its high of  0.78342 of nearly 2 weeks ago and is now sitting at 0.76177.

Yesterday’s U.S. trading session ended fairly positively with the main Dow Jones 30 index finishing up by 117 points at 17,891 but so far this morning in the futures market the index is 17,786 reflecting a negative sentiment across most European markets.

Gold is enjoying a a bullish run on the back of pessimism in equity markets and briefly touched the $1300 level during yesterday’s session and this morning it does look as though we will see moves above $1300 quite soon.

Trading Diary:

10:20am   First opportunity I’ve seen this morning and I am now in a ‘long’ UTB position on my FTSE-100 chart. Stop loss is a reasonable 12 pips.

10:45am   Well, that was a quick trade ! Position stopped out at -12 pips.

11:05am  Cycle ride now, all quiet on my charts.

12:50pm    In another UTB trade, this time a ‘long’ set-up on my French CAC-40 15min chart with a 10 pip stop loss.

14:00pm   Just back from lunch and my CAC trade was sitting at +20 pips so I’ve closed it off for a quick profit as I’ve got some errands to run so I shall be in and out of the house for most of the afternoon.

Back in front of my charts tomorrow morning.

8:20am    Beautiful day out there so will mainly be in the garden today but I shall be watching my charts from time to time as well – and there is already a possible ‘long’ trade on my Brent Crude chart. More details below in my Trading Diary.

This will be my last trading day of the week and I shall be back in front of my charts next Tuesday.

Market Update:

Main news at the close yesterday was the Federal Reserve’s position on interest rates. As expected, they are staying with the current level of 0.50% but Fed Chairman Janet Yellen has conceded that the economy is not growing as she thought at the beginning of the year but despite these comments, she has still left herself room to possibly increase the minimum lending rate in June and this sentiment together with the Bank Of Japan’s decision to cap their stimulus package instead of increasing it has given a bearish slant to the overnight Asian trading session – the Nikkei 225 index closed over 3% down a short while ago.

This pessimism has spilled over to this morning’s European session with UK and German markets gapping down earlier and the Dax-30 index sitting right on its 20-day moving average. Crude oil reached its highest level of 2016 last night with U.S. WTI Crude closing at $45:30 and even though there was a certain amount of profit taking overnight, the price is up slightly again this morning.

Trading Diary:

08:40am   With reference to the comments above regarding a possible Brent Crude trade  – I am now in that position. It’s a UTB pattern and my stop loss is 26 pips.

10:10am  Just closed off the Brent trade, the price has started to retreat back from the $47:25 level and I’ve managed a profit of +39 pips.

Chance To Answer a Popular Question

Having a successful trade this early in the day gives me a chance to comment about a query I am asked at least once a week – and this probably means there are many other traders who are reading this trading diary and are thinking the same question.

If you have a successful trade at the beginning of YOUR trading session (no matter what time of the day or night you’re watching your charts) do you carry on trading or do you call it a day and retire gracefully ?

Well, I would suggest that if you’ve been trading for less than a year and you are still getting to grips with this new career of yours, you leave your charts now and go and do something relaxing and un-trading related. My profit of 39 pips is more than adequate for a day’s earnings so as you are in profit for the day, retire happy.

If you really want to carry on trading (for practice) – just do some paper/demo trading instead so you do not risk losing your day’s profit.

In my case, I am going to continue trading as I’ve reached the happy position of trading for fun and not money. I enjoy the game of beating the markets and winning or losing money really does not matter any more because I know the probability of my systems coming out ahead is in my favour so my account will always be in the black.

Hope that helps !

And now I’m off for an invigorating cycle ride….

11:25am   The Spanish IBEX-35 index, not a chart I watch very much but many years ago I did used to analyse it for a private client and at the moment I am waiting for a possible ‘short’ trade to develop. It is quite volatile at times but if the price drops low enough (to 9136) to trigger a trade I will be in.

11:40am  The IBEX price has dropped sufficiently so I am now in a ‘short’ trendFX position. My stop loss is 22 pips.

14:15pm   Just got back from lunch to see my IBEX trade has been stopped out at -22 pips.

15:40pm   Have entered a ‘long’ trendFX strategy-3 position on my Dax-30 15min chart, the stop loss in the case is 23 pips. There are also virtually the same opportunities on my FTSE-100 and S&P-500 charts but those trades has not triggered so far although they are heading in the right direction.

16:10pm   Well that was a quick one. The Dax price-action has slowed considerably and it’s started to reverse from the 10330 level so I am now out of the position with a +58 pip profit.  I think that’s it for the day as far as trading is concerned, I have some finishing off to do in the garden  – back here trading on Tuesday.

08:10am  Back home after a short break away so I will be doing some chart watching on and off through the day – any trades I have will be reported below.

Market Update:

Main market news of the day is the upcoming Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision later today and this is already having an effect on the markets with the overnight Asian session ending mixed as traders manoeuvre their positions ahead of the announcement at 20:00hrs European time.

The Asian trading session was down overall with Australia’s Consumer Price Index number coming in at -0.2% against an expectation of +0.3% so more stimulus is expected now from its Central Bank and traders are also bracing themselves for the Bank Of Japan’s rate announcement tomorrow. Across the region all other indices fell and this has weighed heavily on the European open this morning where the German DAX-30 is currently down 11 pips and the FTSE-100 off by 19 pips.

There is no real expectation the the U.S. Fed will raise their minimum lending rate today but investors will be analysing the FOMC statement for clues as to whether the much anticipated rise will occur in June. Do not expect much movement in the S&P-500 or Dow Jones-30 through the day but volume will increase as the U.S. trading session comes to a close.

Trading Diary:

08:50am   My favourite charts are not giving me any opportunities yet so I am off for a cycle ride for an hour or so.

12:05pm  There is a possibility of a ‘short’ UTB pattern emerging on my Brent Crude chart so I am watching it carefully at the moment. This type of trade will always be quite risky today due to the U.S. Oil Inventory numbers coming out later this afternoon but the stop loss looks as though it could be small.

12:20pm  I am now in the above UTB position, my stop loss is just 14 pips.

12:40pm   Off for an early lunch with some trader friends – I’ve left the stop loss where it is to give the position some room.

15:00pm   Just back from a long lunch and seen that my Brent Crude trade has been stopped out at -14 pips.

16:10pm    Just entered a ‘long’ trendFX position (strategy-1) on my FTSE-100 chart – I have a 12 pip stop loss.

16:40pm   The London trading session has closed now and as a consequence the price action has slowed slightly so I have just closed off my FTSE-100 trade at +18 pips.

08:50am   At home this morning so will report any trades I have below.

Market Update:

U.S. markets ended up last night mainly on higher oil prices and this sentiment swept across to Asia overnight where the Nikkei 225 and Hang Seng indices also finished positively. In the U.S. the Dow Jones index of 30 leading companies finished at its highest level since July 2015 although looking at a weekly chart you can see a fair amount of resistance coming up so there could be some interesting trading opportunities coming up.

As usual on Wednesday, we had the weekly U.S. Crude Oil Inventory number released for the previous week and there was a lower than expected build in stocks which gave WTI and Brent Crude a lift in the afternoon although this bullish sentiment with both charts ending the day on a new yearly high.  This morning the bullishness has disappeared slightly as news from Russia shows they are threatening to increase production after a failed Doha meeting at the weekend.

Trading Diary:

09:30am   Just glanced quickly through my favourite charts and the only possible opportunity I can see is a developing UTB pattern on the Gold chart.

10:25am   The UTB pattern did not develop into a valid pattern but there is now a possible ‘long’ trade setting up on my Brent Crude chart.

10:40am   I am now in a Brent Crude ‘long’ position, it’s a ‘Magic-Line’ set-up and from comments/emails I receive from clients I see that most do not carry on trading this system after purchasing one or more of my others but it is a very simple set-up so worth considering especially if you add my unique MMOSc indicator as a filter as well. If you do not have a copy of the system manual please drop me an email and I will send one over free of charge.

My stop loss is 23 pips and I can see a possible resistance around the $46:10 level but I shall wait and see what happens.

 11:05am   Off out for a cycle ride with some neighbours – back in an hour. I’m leaving the stop loss at its original position and I’ve set the target at $46:10 where there’s a possible reversal point.

12:30pm  Back home now and the trade is still trundling along – I’ve removed the target level and I’ll watch the position for the next hour or so before I go out to lunch.

13:10pm   Friends have called round early for lunch so just closed off my trade – it has managed +31 pips.

14:45pm  Out all afternoon now with my youngest son so no more trading today – and also away on a 5-day break tomorrow morning so back to my charts next Wednesday.

08:25am   Nice relaxing day at home so any trades I have will be reported below.

Market Update:

Asian markets overnight ended mixed as pressure from the oil sector and weak Chinese performance weighed on equities, the main Shanghai Composite finished down 70 points (-2.3%) at 2,972 although the Japanese Nikkei 225 faired slightly better with a +32 gain on the day. U.S. markets on Tuesday finished the session with small gains with the wider S&P-500 index finishing above the important 2100 level for the first time this year – I have an interesting chart on this subject, if you’d like to see it just email me.

Oil prices rose yesterday with the U.S. WTI Crude hitting the $42 level at one stage although there’s pressure on the price today as Kuwaiti oil workers resume production today after a 3-day strike, the U.S. benchmark has now slipped back to $41:58 at the moment. The price has been hovering around its 200-day moving average now for the last week so a break out one way or the other is on the cards, watch out for good trading opportunities.

Trading Diary:

9:00am   Nothing on my charts currently so I’m off for a swim in the sea as it’s such a lovely morning.

11:35am    Just waiting to see if the S&P-500 price rises above 2098 in the next 30 minutes or so – if it does it will trigger a ‘long’ trendFX strategy-3 trade.

11:55am   Now in the position described above, I am working on a 15min chart and my stop loss is 27 pips.

12:05pm  My position has quite quickly got into profit (+24 pips) so I’ve just brought my stop loss upto break even just to guard against any potential volatility as we move towards the U.S. trading session open in just over an hour.

13:25pm   Going out for a quick lunch with some friends now so I’ve just closed off my S&P position, it has managed +48 pips.  I will send over a chart screenshot to clients who also have this trading system when I get back.

19:30pm  I was out all afternoon playing golf so no more trades to report.

09:05am   After a short break away I am around the house for most of the day so any trades I have will be reported below.

Market Update:

The weekend meeting of major oil producers failed to come to any concrete agreement to lower production levels and this had an adverse effect on most markets yesterday as the trading kicked off for a new week although crude oil prices have levelled off now and this has had a positive result in the U.S. last night as well as the overnight Asian markets.

The S&P500 ended Monday’s session up 13.62 points at 2094.34, above the previous support resistance level of 2082 which is fairly bullish and the futures price this morning is close to the previous high of December 2015 of 2106 which it should hit later today – so watch out for a bearish reversal at this point, a possible trading opportunity.

The crude oil price has settled down after the volatile moves early yesterday and WTI Crude is back at its 200-day moving average this morning ($41:65 currently) after going as low as $37:62 during Sunday evening’s Asian session. This positive sentiment across oil and equity markets should be having a negative effect on the Gold price but this morning it is already up $8:90 on yesterday’s $1232:30 close.

Trading Diary:

10:35am   Nothing much to get excited on my favourite charts so far this morning, so I’m off for a cycle ride now – back around midday.

12:30pm  Just keeping an eye on my Brent Crude chart where there’s a bearish UTB pattern that could possibly trigger if the price drops below $43:70 in the next 15 minutes without climbing too high.

12:40pm   Now in a ‘short’ Brent Crude position with a 16 pip stop loss.

12:55pm    Out to lunch now, stop loss on Brent trade still at 16 pips but no target for the moment.  I will see how it’s performed in an hour when I am back.

14:15pm   Back home now and my Brent position was doing ok so I’ve closed it off at +58 pips. Happy with the day’s profit so no more trading for me today – back in front of my charts tomorrow morning.

09:20am   Late start and a nice relaxing day at home and I will be watching my charts from time to time as well. Any trades I have will be reported below.

Away for a long weekend break early tomorrow so back here Tuesday morning

Market Update:

Markets are mostly looking quite bullish on the back of Wednesday’s encouraging Chinese trade balance together with some positive corporate results in the U.S. as amongst other, the country’s largest bank, JP Morgan came in with better than expected 1st quarter profits on the back of better trading revenue and falling costs.  The S&P-500 ended yesterday’s trading session at a significant support/resistance line of 2082 (+1%) and the Dow Jones was also up a similiar percentage to finish the day at 17,908.

Asian stocks also had a positive overnight session with the main Chinese Shanghai Composite coming in 0.52% higher and the Hang Seng fairing slightly better (+0.85%).  Crude oil prices have been rising well since the beginning of last week but U.S. WTI Crude has now hit a resistance line around $42.00 and reversed back slightly and is currently down at $41:54, this resistance also coincides with its 200-day moving average so could be quite significant for traders.

Gold is still suffering from higher equity markets, it fell $12:80 yesterday to end the day at $1243:40 and is don a few more dollars this morning after the overnight Asian session.

Trading Diary:

09:55am   Just waiting to see if the German Dax-30 price drops below 10,041 in the next 15 minutes or so – if that does occur it will trigger a ‘short’ UTB trade.

10:10am   I am now in the above mentioned position, my stop loss is 28 pips.

11:40am   Now in a ‘long’ Brent Crude trendFX trade (strategy-3) with a 25 pip stop loss.

12:05pm   My Dax trade has not really produced many pips yet, the price has been going sideways for most of the morning and as I’m off for a cycle ride now I’ve brought the stop loss upto -10 pips to lessen any losses but also give the trade a bit of room to move – profit set at +28 pips. Leaving the Brent Crude trade profit level open at the moment and stop loss where it is as the position has not been running for long. Back at 2pm to see how they’ve fared.

13:55pm   Just back from cycle ride and my Dax trade has been stopped out at -10 pips and I’ve closed off the Brent trade at $44:49 giving me +29 pips. The price had been higher but seemed to be reversing at the $44:60 level so I took a short profit that allows me to be out in the garden this afternoon.

07:30am  Early start today and no trading as I am away for most of the day on a clay pigeon shoot. Back trading the markets tomorrow.

Market Update:

Some good news from China has boosted markets in Asia overnight, the latest export data released by their General Administration of Customs showed that exports increased by 11.5% year on year in March which was much greater that a Reuters survey that suggested a more modest 2.5%. The rising oil price is also helping equities but the U.S. WTI Crude price is coming upto a fairly well established $42.00 level so there maybe a bearish reaction so watch out for trading opportunities.

The U.S. markets ended Tuesday’s trading session generally bullish with the S&P-500 up nearly 1% (+19.73 points) after energy sector shares soared on expectations that the WTI Crude price would breach and stay above its 200-day moving average although it has retreated slightly this morning and is currently sitting at $41:24.

This general bullish sentiment has spilled over to the European market this morning and the Dax-30 and FTSE-100 both look to be starting the day ahead of yesterday’s close and this optimism in equities is having an expected effect on the Gold price which is extending its losses for a second day after reversing at the $1262 level – currently at $1248:60.

07:55am   Back home after a short break away so will be watching my charts now and then today, any trades I have will be reported below.

Market Update:

U.S. equity markets ended yesterday’s session on a bearish note with nothing to excite buyers and the earnings season just around the corner. The S&P-500 finished down 6 points last night at 2042.01 and is now below the 2015 close of 2058, there was a small resistance level last December at 2080 and the index touched that point during yesterday’s session and reversed back so we may see further falls this month even though the price of oil has stabilised and is edging up.

The overnight Asian session was quite ‘choppy’ with most indices ending slightly down on continued worries over the Chinese/Japanese economy although the negative sentiment does not seem to have spilled over to the European session so far, the German Dax-30 is currently slightly up at 9683 although the 20-day moving average does seem to be providing some resistance.

Crude oil is continuing to rise towards its near-term resistance level at $42:00 where the 200-day moving average is also sitting, the daily chart is now firmly established in a bull trend even though there still seems to be no concrete agreement from OPEC members regarding limiting production.

Trading Diary:

08:35am   My Brent Crude chart seems as though it may provide a bullish trading opportunity if the price reverses soon and continues upwards. There could be a similiar trade on the Gold chart as well but that one is not as advanced.

08:55am   The Brent price has risen sufficiently to trigger a trade so I am now in a ‘long’ trendFX position. It’s a strategy-3 set-up and my stop loss is 28 pips. Gold is rising as well so that trade may trigger soon as well.

09:15am   I am now in the Gold trade as well, it is also a ‘long’  trendFX strategy-3 set-up and there’s a 27 pip stop loss attached to the position.

10:15am   The Gold price rose quite nicely but suddenly reversed a short while ago so I have closed the position off at break even rather than have a winning trade turn into a loss – it did hit the first target of+27 pip at one stage but went no higher and I was out in the garden so did not close the trade off at that stage.

11:00am   The strength of the Brent Crude price has weakened as well, so I am now out of that position also — I’ve closed it off at a 1:1 profit ratio before it goes any lower (+28 pips). I’m going to take this opportunity to have a quick cycle ride to stretch my legs.

15:10pm   Just back from lunch but too nice to sitting indoors, which means no more trading for the day – back in front of my charts tomorrow.

08:10am  At home for most of today so any trades I have will be reported here.

(No Market Update next Monday, back home for Tuesday)

Market Update:

Overnight the Asian trading session ended mixed with the Japanese Nikkei 225 ending up after a choppy session but both the main Chinese indices closed in the red with the main Shanghai Composite down by just over 1%.  Japanese equities were given a boost by comments by the Finance Minister Taro Aso after he vowed to take all necessary measures to stem the damaging rise in the Yen. It was a different story in the U.S. last night where both the S&P-500 and Dow Jones-30 finished down after Janet Yellen confirmed that here December rate rise was not a mistake and now has more or less committed to a couple more increases in the bank rate for 2016.

Gold has come under pressure overnight from profit-takers after a $15 price rise yesterday on shaky equity markets, it broke out of a small triangle pattern during Thursday’s trading session and looks to be regaining its bullish trend that was last seen at the beginning of February. The Crude Oil price has regained some of its upward momentum this week after nine losing sessions, $42 seems to be its upper limit at the moment and it is now going towards that level – currently sitting at $38:30 up 80 cents on the day.

Trading Diary:

09:15am   Nothing much to see on my collection of favourite charts so I am off for a cycle ride along the coastal path.

11:20am   Just got back home from ride and checked charts again – no opportunities so going to cut the lawn..

12:35pm   Got into a ‘long’ position on my Brent Crude 15min chart a short while ago. It’s a trendFX strategy-1 set-up and my stop loss is 19 pips.

13:30pm   Nipping out for a quick lunch with my trade at +17 pips. As we have the U.S. trading session open now I’ve brought my stop loss upto break even just to protect myself in the event of some volatility.

15:40pm   Off out with some fellow traders for a game of golf soon so I have just closed my Brent trade at +88 pips. I shall send out a chart screenshot to subscribers later this evening when I’m back.