08:50am Back after a 6-day break away and I shall be mainly at home today so if I do take any trades I will report them below.
Market Update:
European markets have opened mainly down this morning after a less than positive end yesterday as traders digest the possibility that the U.S. Federal Reserve are going to increase their lending rate at the next FOMC meeting in June. Apart from Fed Chief Janet Yellen’s comments last week regarding the likelihood of a rate hike, St.Louis Fed boss James Bullard also said yesterday that markets were well prepared for a summer rate rise.
French, German and UK equity indices look as though their previously bullish sentiment calmed somewhat yesterday and this morning are looking decidedly bearish and this is also reflected in this morning’s U.S. equity futures where the S&P500 index has fallen over 60 pips in the last 3-hours.
While I’ve been away from my charts the U.S. Crude Oil market has reached the important $50 level and reversed back but is now looking reluctant to move above this resistance area. WTI Crude has had three low volume daily sessions and although the daily chart is fairly oversold this morning, it will take some concerted buying pressure. UK Brent Crude is as usual, trading at a slightly higher level and this morning has been hovering around $50 but looks as though further falls are on the cards today.
Trading Diary:
09:20am Not much on my charts currently to get excited about so off on a cycle ride instead.
12:05pm Been back home for a short while and the only opportunity that maybe coming up is a potential UTB trade on my WTI Crude chart.
12:20pm The WTI price has now risen above the $49:49 trigger price so I am now in a ‘long’ UTB position with a 20 pip stop loss which is relatively small for a 1hr chart.
13:00pm Off out to lunch with some fellow traders so set the target for my WTI position at +20 pips.
14:15pm Back from lunch and spotted some interesting price action on the WTI Crude chart, there is a narrowing triangle pattern emerging which means that the price will eventually break out either up or down so I have deleted my take profit order and I shall sit and watch the chart for a while to see what occurs. If anyone wants a chart showing this price action just email me but I will send one out later to all subscribers.
15:35pm The WTI Crude price has just gone through the possible resistance level at $50 so I have closed my trade off now although I did manage to get out at $50:05 giving me a profit of +51 pips.
Happy with that for a day on the markets so I am finished with my trading although I am now going to search through a list of around 30 charts and compile my Triangle Trading TRADE ALERT Sheet to send out in a few hours.
09:05am Back in the UK now but no trading this week as I am off again tonight for 6-day holiday, back in front of my screens next Tuesday.
Market Update:
Asian markets overnight closed mainly down after a lacklustre low-volume U.S. trading session on Monday where traders had nothing to excite them and there is a growing concern that the Fed is getting ready to raise their minimum interest rate at their June meeting. This negative sentiment spilled over to the European open and hour ago although most indices have now recovered and are forging ahead – thr German Dax-30 is currently ahead by over 40 pips on its opening level.
Crude oil price are starting to slow once again on news that Iran is still insistent on increasing their production to pre-sanction levels, U.S. WTI Crude is coming off the $49:25 high of last week and currently trading around the $47:75 level although the daily chart is suggesting further moves up during the rest of this week. Although equity markets are not reaching previous highs, the Gold price continues to fall and significantly lower than the £1303 high it posted at the beginning of May, it is standing at $1244:25 at the moment and still looks fairly bearish.
09:55am CET (08:55 UK time) I’ve a busy day ahead with various errands that have come up but if I do have time to do some chart watching I will post details below of any trades I take through the day.
Market Update:
Markets around the world are on alert after the latest Fed meeting minutes released last night shows a growing consensus for possible rate rise as early as June although astute traders have already realised that the next FOMC meeting is just before the UK EU referendum so it is unlikely that Federal Reserve members will vote for a rise without knowing whether Britain is staying within the European Union. In recent months the likelihood of a rate rise before the summer has largely been dismissed and this is also worrying the Fed as a ‘shock’ announcement in June will upset global markets, so yesterday’s minutes are also seen as preparing traders for the possibility of a slight rise – interesting times ahead !
The overnight Asian market was mixed with only the Japanese Nikkei 225 index coming out ahead (+2 points) and this pessimism has continued this morning across Europe with the German Dax-30 fairing worst at -40 pips down so far. The crude oil market is looking more bearish this morning after the weekly U.S. Crude Oil Inventories released yesterday showed a rise in stock levels and this coupled with increasing output from Saudi Arabia and Iran has pushed WTI Crude back towards the $47:95 level this morning from a high of $48:91 yesterday lunchtime.
Trading Diary:
10:00am CET Just had a quick glance at my usual charts and there could be a ‘short’ Gold trade about to trigger – more details soon
10:10am CET I am now in the aforementioned Gold position, it’s a trendFX strategy-1 set-up with a 22 pip stop loss.
10:25am CET Off for cycle ride with neighbour. Set target at+22 pips.
12:30pm CET My Gold trade is still active and has not quite hit its target yet although it has come close. Going to lunch now so leaving stop loss and profit target as they are.
16:00pm CET Just returned back from lunch and seen that my earlier Gold trade reached its target a few hours ago (+22 pips). That’s it for trading today and probably this week, back to my charts next Tuesday when I’m back in the UK.
I hope you have a nice relaxing weekend break.
08:50am CET (07:50 UK time) Early-ish start for me this morning as we are out sailing this afternoon. Any trades I have will be reported below.
Market Update:
Asian markets ended the overnight session largely negative on news that the U.S Federal Reserve may increase their minimum lending rate quicker than has been priced into the markets currently. The Hang Seng was the biggest loser, ending down 313 points (-1.56%) but the Nikkei 225 was propped up slightly against the pessimism after it was announced that the Japanese economy grew by 1.7% during the first quarter of 2016 so avoiding recession once again.
There was the FOMC meeting minutes released last night and a leading Fed policymaker was quoted as saying that he would push for an interest rate hike in either June or July and two others reiterated their stance that there would be at least two rate rises this year – this is what’s giving the market jitters in the past 12 hours.
This morning’s European session started on the back foot after bearish sentiment in Asian but the German Dax-30 index has recovered slightly and is currently trading a few points up on the day. The crud eoil markets will be in focus once again as we have the weekly U.S. oil stock numbers released this afternoon so watch out for volatility if you’re trading WTI Crude or Brent Oil. These charts have been advancing well over the last week or so but there has been a slight pullback this morning as traders adjust their positions ahead of the Crude Oil Inventories after lunch.
Trading Diary:
10:20am CET (09:20 UK time) Not much to see on my collection of favourite charts so I am off for a cycle ride up towards Formentor for an hour or so.
12:55pm CET (11:55 UK time) Been back for a short while but nothing to get excited about on my charts so that’s it for today as far as chart watching is concerned – back in front of my screens tomorrow morning.
08:55am Back in the UK and having a nice relaxing day at home catching up on emails and doing some chart watching. Any trades I have will be reported below.
Market Update:
Markets are fairly optimistic at the moment and this sentiment has the surging oil price behind it. The U.S. WTI Crude price rose $1.60 yesterday to close at $47.87 and this morning it is sitting at $48.20 and getting closer to the significant $50 point, a level we have not seen since October 2015. The Asian market finished mainly ahead overnight after an encouraging U.S. finish last night and this morning in Europe most equity indices are also ahead with the German Dax-30 gapping up on the open by 128 points.
The rise in crude oil values has been prompted mainly by potential supply problems that have been highlighted by a few brokers with Goldman Sachs reversing their previously bearish stance on the commodity. Gold has been in the doldrums lately with the surprising resilience in equity markets slowing buying of the precious metal as a safe haven product – it formed a bearish reversal candle on the daily chart last night so we may see more falls to the $1257 level as we go towards the end of the week.
Trading Diary:
09:30am Just watching the Gold chart to see if the price drops lower than $1272:20 which will trigger a ‘short’ trendFX position.
09:40am The Gold price has dropped sufficiently so I am now in the above mentioned trade with a 22 pip stop loss. It is a strategy-3 set-up from the trendFX manual.
10:05am Off out for a cycle ride in the sun with some neighbours but not set a target for my trade, I’ll see what’s happened when I’m back in an hour or so.
11:15am Just back and my Gold position is currently sitting at +3 pips although it has been as low as +29 pips. If you were a new trader you would have just set the target at 1:1 (+22 pips) and taken your profit a while ago but I am not too worried about risking a few points to see if the trade gives me more of a profit. After 25 years of trading, you will feel the same I can assure you !
11:25am Now just entered a ‘short’ UTB trade on my FTSE-100 chart, my stop loss this time is 16 pips.
12:00 midday Just seen that my Gold position has been stopped out at -22 pips.
15:10pm The FTSE-100 price has eventually come down quite well but it seems to have bottomed out around the 6145 level and risen slightly so I have just closed off the position at 6155 giving me a +40 pip profit. Happy with the day’s results so I’ve finished trading until tomorrow although I am going to scan through my list of around 30 Triangle Trading charts now to compile a Trade-Alert Sheet for subscribers, letting them know of upcoming triangle trading opportunities and also potential Trend-Line trades as well
08:30am Quiet day at home and my last day of trading this week – any trades I may have will be reported below.
Market Update:
European equity markets have started today’s session on a bearish note after U.S. indices fell yesterday and the overnight Asian markets ended largely down although the Japanese Nikkei 225 index did manage to post a slight gain of +0.41% at the close. The drop in U.S. equities was surprising given that oil prices staged a surge upwards following better than expected oil stock numbers yesterday although the effect of Saudi Arabia’s decision to increase oil production must start to weigh on prices very soon.
The S&P 500 is now starting to look slightly bearish and over the past week has failed several times to climb over the 2082 level and the daily chart is suggesting further falls towards the end of this trading week. Surprisingly given the weakness in equity markets, Gold has also had a fairly negative week although the price on the daily chart is oversold and looking a bit more bullish this morning.
Trading Diary:
10:40am European equity markets have fairly quickly recovered from their bearish start today and most are rising at the moment - I am currently watching the German Dax-30 index to see if it rises above 10,022 in the next 30 minutes or so. If it does manage to do this I will enter a ‘long’ trend FX strategy strategy-3 position.
10:55am I am now in the above position with a 29 pip stop loss – fairly average for a trade on an equity index 15min chart.
12:25am An invitation from some fellow traders has been text across to meet for lunch in 5 minutes so I have now closed off my Dax-30 trade as I am more than content with the +50 pip score.
17:55pm No further trades to report as we’ve enjoyed the sun on the beach all afternoon.
Back trading on Tuesday — wishing you a relaxing weekend break.
08:15am In and out of the house for most of the day with various ‘errands’ but any trades I have will be reported below.
Market Update:
Tuesday’s trading session ended on an upbeat sentiment last night with both U.S. indices posting above 1% gains with the rise on the oil price being the main reason for this optimism. Material, energy and industrial sectors all helped the S&P-500 rise by nearly 26 points at the close and U.S Dollar strength again the Japanese Yen also helped – this forex pair has risen quite well over the past few days after it reversed at the significant 105.50 level at the beginning of May.
The overnight Asian trading session ended mixed with no adverse news or economic announcements to guide the markets and the falling oil price did not affect sentiment either although we may see more effect today as news that Saudi Arabia is now ramping up their own crude oil production.
Gold is looking bullish once again on the daily chart where the price staged a bullish reversal off the 20-day moving average yesterday and if equity markets do head south for the rest of this week we should see a move back upto the $1300 level that we witnessed at the beginning of this month.
Trading Diary:
08:25am Nothing much to see on my charts at the moment as the European trading session gets underway so I am off out for a short while.
11:55am I have been in and out of the house all morning so not had much time to look at my usual charts, maybe more luck when I get back from lunch around 2:30pm
15:10am Just got into a trade. The markets have been moving unusually today for a reason I’ve not yet fathomed but a few minutes ago I stumbled onto a ‘short’ UTB opportunity on my Gold chart that was just about to trigger so I am now in that trade with a 28 pip stop loss.
17:15pm Still in my Gold trade, it’s currently sitting at +26 pips. My 15min chart still looks quite bearish so I shall stay to see if I can get slightly more than the minimum target at 28 pips.
18:20pm The Gold price has fallen quite well over the last 30 minutes but now it looks like it is on its way up for a while so I’ve just closed my trade off at +32 pips.
07:25am No trading for me yesterday as I got back late from a weekend away but I shall be here at home for most of today so any trades I have will be reported below.
Market Update:
The overnight Asian market ended largely positively after Chinese Consumer Price Index for April came in 2.3% higher year on year, broadly in line with expectations and the same for the previous month. This bullish sentiment is fueling the European markets this morning with most indices posting gains so far in the futures market ahead of the open in just over 30 minutes. Monday’s U.S. trading session ended mixed as the Dow Jones index of top 30 companies posted a 34 point loss but the wider S&P-500 ended up 1.55 points after a late rally that was attributed to share rises in the healthcare sector.
Oil is once again in focus with U.S. WTI Crude losing $1:76 at the close on continued worries over stockpiles even though Canada has lost a significant amount of production in the last week due to wildfires. UK Brent Crude also had a negative session and finished down $2:74 and $43:43 last night, it’s biggest one day loss since January. Gold fell back yesterday, ending $21:10 down at $1263:70 on U.S. Dollar strength, it now seems as though the $1300 level was unsustainable in the short term although the daily chart is fairly oversold this morning suggesting some bullish movement in the short term.
Trading Diary:
09:10am Just got into a ‘short’ UTB position on my Gold chart with a 16 pip stop loss – more details soon just going to help a neighbour with his car.
11:15am Just got back indoors and my UTB position is currently sitting at +11 pips so I will let it run to see what kind of profit I can achieve before lunchtime and the U.S. trading session open. It is a fairly standard bearish UTB set-up on the 15min chart, average size stop loss for the timeframe.
12:50pm Off to lunch now so I’ve closed off my Gold trade at +32 pips. I’ll send off a chart screenshot showing complete trade details to customers when I get back.
15:00pm Back home but not much to get excited about on my collection of favourite charts so I am off for a cycle ride and back to my screens tomorrow.
08:40am At home again for most of the day so any trades I have will be reported below. I am watching my Gold chart as there’s a possible ‘short’ trendFX trade developing if the price drops back down past the $1277.60.
Last day of trading for me today – back in front of my charts on Monday.
Market Update:
The overnight Asian market ended mixed after Chinese data revealed their service sector growth was slowing and the Purchasing Manager’s Index came in at 51.8 which denotes expansion as the figure is over 50. Here in Europe we are expecting a quiet day as there are French, German and Swiss bank holidays today although futures markets will provide some volume, the indices in Frankfurt and London started off well but have retreated back to yesterday’s close level.
The crude oil price was predictably volatile yesterday as usual for a Wednesday as there was the weekly U.S. stock level announcement but once it settled down last night it began to rise on news of a large wildfire in the oil city of Fort McMurray in the west of the country. It is reported that over 1600 buildings have collapsed in the fire with more damage expected and this will inevitably affect the oil production for the area – this and news of renewed fighting in Libya means global output will be down this week hence the rise in values.
Gold values are still falling slightly after the long rise up although the daily chart is currently oversold so we may see some bullish activity today/tomorrow. The price is currently sitting at $1278.90 slightly down from yesterday’s close of $1279.10
Trading Diary:
08:55am I am now in the aforementioned Gold trendFX strategy-3 trade and my stop loss is 32 pips.
12:35pm Off for an early lunch now so I’ve readjusted my stop up to break even as my Gold trade has not really done much for most of the morning and we are coming up to the volatile U.S. trading session open.
When I am working off lower timeframe charts and trading my trendFX or UTB strategies I would normally expect a trade to reach a good profit or be stopped out within 2-3 hours so today’s situation where the price has done neither points to disappointment, hence moving my stop loss up to limit any possible loss.
17:20pm No further trades to report today – it’s been far too sunny to be indoors. Back trading on Monday – day away from the charts tomorrow as it’s Non Farm Payrolls day once more.
07:50am Lovely sunny day out there so will be mostly in the garden but I will report any trades I have in my Trading Diary below.
Market Update:
European markets are set to open with a bearish slant in a few minutes after a lacklustre overnight Asian session where the main Chinese index (Shanghai Composite) ended down -0.22%. The Japanese markets are still closed although their last trading session on Monday saw losses of over 3%. Commodity companies are feeling the pinch as the rally in oil prices has come to a temporary halt, WTI Crude fell 2.5% during Tuesday’s session to close at $43:86 and they slightly down this morning at $43:71 currently. Later today we have the U.S. Crude Oil stock numbers so expect some volatility in the relevant charts.
With the instability in equity markets prevailing, the gold price has posted some impressive gains in the past few weeks but profit takers are out in force at the moment and there does seem to be some consolidation around the $1300 resistance level where we’ve seen a few bearish reversal candles form this week.
U.S. equity markets are largely driven at the moment by company earnings but do seem to losing their bullish trend and are well of the highs seen this time last year. There has been a good rise from the low of early February but even that rally seems to have petered out now although a few words from Fed chief Janet Yellen could change all that in an instant.
Trading Diary:
08:15am Nothing much to see on my collection of favourite charts (and a few others as well) at the moment so I am off for a cycle ride for an hour or so.
10:15am Just waiting to see if the price on my Gold 15min chart drops below $1281.10 soon, if it does it will trigger a ‘short’ UTB trade.
10:25am Now in the aforementioned UTB position on my Gold chart – my stop loss is 24 pips on this occasion.
11:50am Friends have just arrived for early lunch so I’ve just closed off my Gold position – it has come in at +51 pips. I will send out a chart screenshot to students/customers soon.
