07:40am   I have a quiet day at home catching up on emails and Skype calls plus some chart watching although I am now sure how lively the markets will be as traders wait to see the result of the EU in/out referendum here in the UK.

Market Update:

The market’s focus today is on the aforementioned UK Brexit vote which has dominated the press and internet for the last month or so.  Trader friends of mine who work on trading floors in the City of London are reporting that their screens are being monitored all through tonight by a full compliment of traders and backroom support instead of the skeleton staff that is more usual as ear;y results will start filtering through during tonight’s Asian session.

Most traders I have spoken to this week are expecting the UK to vote to remain within the EU and this is starting to be priced into the market with a largely positive finish in Asia overnight although U.S. indices closed down last night, mainly due to falls in energy stocks. The weekly U.S. Crude Oil stock showed a slower than expected decline in stocks and this sent WTI Crude tumbling by $1:80 within a 4hr period yesterday afternoon and although the price has recovered overnight it is still well below the $50 level.

Gold hit a recent high of $1318 this time last week but has experienced a slow decline since then as expectations of the UK remaining inside the EU grew and is currently sitting at $1267:12 and further falls are on the cards once the result is announced early tomorrow morning.

Trading Diary:

08:55am    The markets are still settling down and not showing any opportunities for me at the moment so I am off out on a cycle ride in the rain with some fellow traders.

12:10am     No opportunities so far on my collection of favourite charts (as I had expected) so shutting off my screens and then off for lunch soon.

15:55pm   Just got into a ‘long’ position on my S&P-500 chart using my UTB pattern. Stop loss is 37 pips which reflects the volatility that’s prevalent in the markets at the moment.

19:15pm   I am still in my S&P position, it’s currently sitting at +21 pips. I have moved my stop loss upto break even and going to let it run for a while as I am indoors  all evening hosting a “referendum” party which looks like it may go on all night – there are quite  a few other traders here who have various trades running as well so it’ll be a noisy night.

20:20pm    Just had a quick check to see how my trade is progressing – and I’ve noticed an interesting triangle pattern so we should see a breakout soon. This will either result in my trade being stopped out at break even or a good profit and if you’re interested I will send out a chart screenshot tomorrow morning with my thoughts and how you can use these patterns as well.    Interesting evening…

22:25pm    I have closed off my trade a few moments ago as the markets are slowing down ahead of Friday’s Asian trading session open – I have managed a profit of +191 pips and I will send out full details of the trade to customers/subscribers tomorrow morning.

07:40am  Nice relaxing day at home today catching up on emails and some Skype calls. Any trades I have will be detailed below.

I shall be back here on Thursday as I am away all day tomorrow on a building project I am currently involved in.

Market Update:

The markets are gradually becoming more optimistic over the UK’s referendum in two day’s time where all expectations are for the British to vote to remain in the EU. This sentiment will no doubt be further enhanced soon by a typically last-ditch move by Prime Minister Cameron to announce some sort of a sweetener if we all vote to stay in just as he did with the Scottish referendum.

The overnight Asian market ended largely up on positive EU sentiment plus higher Crude Oil prices and with only the Shanghai Composite closing in negative territory (-0.52%) the European markets have followed on with an encouraging start to our own trading session.  There is not a great deal of economic news out today to move the indices although Fed chief Janet Yellen will be testifying later today at the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report held by the Senate Banking Committee in Washington.

On the Crude Oil market, the U.S. benchmark WTI Crude is again hovering around the significant $50 level and my 4hr chart does suggest a possible move down today after a good move up in the last few days – I shall send out a screenshot later this morning.

Trading Diary:

09:10am  Nothing much on my collection of favourite charts at the moment so I am off for a cycle ride in the sun.

10:30am  Just got back and the only thing of interest on my charts at the moment is a possible ‘short’ set-up on my Gold chart – more soon.

10:55am    I am now in a ‘short’ trendFX strategy-3 trade on my 30min Gold chart — my stop loss is 36 pips, about average for this timeframe/set-up.

 12:35pm    Off out to lunch soon so closed my Gold trade off as I am happy with my +98 pip profit.

16:40pm    No more trades to report this afternoon, I’ve been in and out of the house so no chart watching since lunchtime apart from scanning my MT4 platform for my Triangle-Trading Alert Service for the last few hours.  Back trading on Thursday – a day outside tomorrow helping builders up the road.

08:15am   Back home this morning after a week’s holiday so not sure how much chart watching I’ll manage today as I have a few errands to run – any trades I do have will be detailed below.

Market Update:

While I’ve been away the equity markets have been fairly mixed with European indices coming out behind but the S&P 500 and Dow Jones 30 ended the week slightly ahead which reflected the worry that traders and investors have over this week’s UK referendum on staying in the EU. These concerns have eased over the weekend so we have seen a buoyant Asian market plus a positive start here in Europe as fears that the Brexit campaign was winning have subsided after several polls show that the Remain camp are showing a slight lead again.

This optimism is prevalent in the Crude Oil market as well this morning with WTI Crude ahead by 20 cents, building on a large rise on Friday on the back of a weaker U.S. Dollar. The price is now heading back towards towards the high of  $51:60 that was reached a couple of weeks ago (currently $49:31) after six straight losing sessions ending on Thursday night. With relative uncertainty in equity markets, Gold has had a good run up over the past 3 weeks from a low at the beginning of June of $1199 to a reading of $1286:61 this morning although higher indices will calm buying today as well as profit taking from the overnight Asian session.

Trading Diary:

09:10am    There could be a ‘long’ trendFX trade coming up on my S&P500 chart if the right candle is formed in the next 5 minutes and then the price continues rising.

09:20am   The price on the S&P has risen above 2090.90 so I am now in a ‘long’ position using strategy-1 from the trendFX manual. My stop loss is 15 pips.

10:45am    My trade is still plodding along quite nicely and is currently sitting at +9 pips but I’m going to keep my stop loss at its current level while I pop into town for an hour as it will give the trade space to ‘breathe’ – no target set yet, I will see how it gets on later as the price is currently giving me numerous clues that it will continue to rise as we go towards the U.S. open.

12:55pm    The S&P 500 chart does not seem to be able get over the 2095.50 level at the moment so I have closed my trade off now at 2095.20 giving me +39 pips as I am off the pub for lunch with some fellow traders. I will send out a chart showing the exact details to subscribers when I’m back.

14:30pm   Back home but no more trading for me today, I’ve a heap of errands & jobs to get done this afternoon. Back in front of the charts tomorrow.

08:40am       No trading for me today and I am away later this morning on a week’s holiday, back in front of my charts on Monday 20th June.   Until then, enjoy the markets and have a great weekend !

Market Update:

Equity markets in the U.S. closed slightly down last night on weaker oil prices and this sentiment spilled over to the overnight Asian session where the main indices all ended in the red with the Chinese Hang Seng Index coming in as the biggest loser at -1.12% (238 points down)  The crude oil market has enjoyed a good run up from the low in February when U.S. WTI Crude was at $26 but it took a breather yesterday and fell from $51:63 to close at $50:43 and this morning its trading lower at $49:99 although the daily chart has become oversold in the past few hours so we could see a rebound before the weekend break.

European equities are reacting to U.S. and Asian markets and have opened well down this morning with the German Dax-30 off by around 140 points currently and here in London the FTSE-100 is down by 60 points as I write this. You would normally expect a flurry of buyers moving over to Gold when equity markets are in the doldrums but the yellow metal has got off to a subdued start today and is still around the $1267level where it closed on Thursday evening. The daily chart is quite overbought and looks as though it could succumb to some profit taking in the next few days.

07:50am   No plans for today apart from 3 Skype calls in the next hour with new traders and catching up on emails, so any trades I have through the day will be detailed below.

Market Update:

The overnight Asian market’s bearish sentiment has spilled over to the start of European trading this morning – equity markets in Japan, China and Australia all ended in the red with the Nikkei 225 index coming in worst with a near 1% drop (-162 points) where Dollar weakness and Yen strength has put exporter’s shares under pressure – the USD/JPY has been falling now fairly regularly for the last year or so from a high of 124.45 to the current level of 106.38 and looks to be heading back towards the strong support at 105.50 quite soon.

Markets in the U.S. also had a bullish session yesterday with the main S&P 500 index pushing to new 2016 levels again, it touched 2120 at one stage which it had not visited since July last year although this morning’s futures market is showing a fall to 2110 currently which is mainly due to the weak European open.

Gold is once again surging ahead with a delayed U.S. interest rate rise the main reason, it hit $1264.30 at one stage yesterday as the U.S. markets began trading but there does seem to be some profit taking at the moment and it is currently sitting just above $1260.  Another rising commodity yesterday was Crude Oil after the U.S. stock numbers showed a fall in inventories of 3.23 million barrels down to 532.5 million barrels, WTI Crude touched $51:59 late yesterday but has fallen back slightly during the Asian session and is currently at $51:13.

Trading Diary:

09:00am    Just completed all my Skype calls for the morning and checked my collection of favourite charts but no trading opportunities are developing so I am off for a cycle ride for an hour or so.

10:15am    Just got back and surveying my charts over the last few minutes has thrown up a ‘short’ trade on my U.S. WTI Crude chart, so I am now in a trade on the 15min chart with a 19 pip stop loss.  As is quite normal, there is a similiar trade on the Brent Crude chart but the price has not gone low enough to trigger the trade yet.

13:05pm     Planning a lunch in Walberswick with some friends so I’ve closed off my WTI trade as the profit is more than acceptable (+42 pips)  There is also a few interesting levels on the hourly chart that makes me believe there could be a break in the bearish momentum for a while and if you’d like to see that 1hr chart just email me.  That’s me done for the day in front of my charts.

08:00am   The plan is to be around the house for most of the day so any trades I have will be detailed below.

Market Update:

The overnight Asian market ended mixed earlier this morning although energy stocks have had a boost across the world due the Crude Oil price which seems to staying above the $50 level for longer than a few hours this time. With Janet Yellen’s speech out of the way, the markets are now taking time to settle down and find their own level so we will see in the next few days whether the U.S. indices march further upwards or reverse back down from current levels. The S&P 500 reached 2119 during yesterday’s session, a level not seen since last July so traders will be on alert now in case profits need to be taken and the price retreats back to the established support at 2082.

Gold is once again over $1252 this morning, a level not seen for a couple of weeks as investors pile in after A U.S. interest rate rise in June fades and July now looks unlikely now as well. I believe the UK referendum will also play a part because a vote to stay in the EU will boost equity markets at the end of this month and that could sway the Fed’s decision to raise rates in July – interesting times ahead…….

Trading Diary:

09:35am   Just got into a ‘long’ trendFX position on my Gold chart, I have a 13 pip stop loss which is quite small even for a 15min chart.

09:45am   Nothing much else on my favourite charts currently so off on a cycle ride for an hour or so. Not set a target for my trade, just kept my 13 pip stop loss.

11:10am   Back now and my Gold trade is still in profit and I shall leave it develop as I’ve noticed a pattern that tells me that the price could rise quite well in the next hour or so – there is a similiar pattern on the Dax chart so if you’re trading that chart this morning watch for more bullish moves soon.  I’ll send out a chart screenshot to subscribers later to illustrate what I am wittering on about.

13:05pm    Off out to lunch shortly so I have closed off my only position of the morning – the Gold trade has come in at +38 pips and the pattern I mentioned earlier worked out ok this time.

14:20pm   Back from lunch but going to help neighbour in his garage for a few hours so no more trading for me today.

07:25am   Early start today as I am off sailing after lunch but I shall be here at home before then watching my favourite charts and answering emails from new traders.

Market Update:

U.S. markets closed on a high last night after Janet Yellen’s comments put paid to any hope of a June rate rise although most traders had discounted the chance anyway given the impending UK ‘Brexit’ vote in a few weeks time. Friday’s jobs numbers has put the dampeners on a decision for the time being so July’s Non Farm Payrolls announcement will be watched carefully and any encouraging numbers will send equity markets into freefall.

The S&P 500 closed at its highest level since last November although the narrower Dow Jones 30 is not following suit at the moment but this optimism is spreading across the Atlantic this morning with most European equity markets starting the session in a bullish mood following a fairly upbeat overnight Asian trading session. Crude oil is once again on the march upwards with U.S. WTI Crude approaching the $50 level again on a weaker U.S. Dollar and concerns over the Nigerian oil industry where terrorist attacks are upsetting the supply chain in the country.

Trading Diary:

09:10am   Nothing has developed on my list of favourite charts so I am off for a cycle ride along the beach down past Dunwich.

11:45am  Been back for an hour or so and the only possible trade that may develop is a ‘short’ set-up on my Gold chart. It depends on the price falling lower than $1241.50 in the next 30 minutes or so.

11:55am   The Gold price has fallen nicely and I am now in a trendFX strategy-1 position with a ‘whopping’ 13 pip stop loss.

12:40pm   Off out soon for some lunch so I’ve just closed my Gold trade at +42 pips.

Back here tomorrow for some more trading, I am finished with trading for the day now.

09:10am   Lazy start for me this morning but I should be around the house for most of the day so any trades I have will be reported below.

Market Update:

Main news at the moment on the markets is Friday’s U.S. jobs numbers which came in below expectations at 38,000 although commentators did point out that the Verizon workers strike did skew the numbers slightly. So how does these figures affect the market ? Less jobs created means the U.S. economy is not as strong as the Fed has been hinting so they could delay their interest rate rise although you could argue that more people in jobs in April means that the economy could cope with a small rate rise – but there is no need to postulate as Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen is speaking tonight in Philadelphia so traders will pick apart her speech to find subtle clues as to the Fed’s next decision. Expect a quiet start to the week’s trading in the U.S. and then some volatility while she talks although the consensus does seem to favour a quarter percent rise in July after the UK has voted on their EU conundrum.

Other sharp moves after Friday’s Non Farm Payrolls included the Gold chart which had a large bullish reaction moments after the jobs report came out, it moved over $27 in under an hour as uncertainty hit equities. Most currencies also rallied against the U.S. Dollar on Friday although the pound has slipped back slightly this morning.

Trading Diary:

09:55am    As usual on a Monday morning, the markets are still sorting themselves out so not much to report in the way of trading opportunities so I am off to do some errands in town.

11:50am    Just got back home and I have missed nothing on my charts so far today – and it is just too sunny outside to do any more chart watching indoors so that’s it for me today as far as trading is concerned – back  here early tomorrow morning.

07:10am   Early start as I’m helping the builders here today so no chart watching for me after I finish my market analysis in a short while. Tomorrow is Non Farm Payrolls so I will not be trading either so I will wish you a relaxing weekend break and I will be back here on Monday morning.

Market Update:

The U.S. markets closed broadly ahead last night on expectations that May’s job numbers will come in broadly similiar to April so pushing back a rate increase from the Fed until at least July. There is also an expectation that the Fed will not adjust their minimum lending rate until after the UK/EU referendum so sentiment is rosy for the S&P 500 and Dow Jones indices.

Overnight the Asian markets finished mainly in negative territory with the Japanese Nikkei 225 index ending down almost 2% after confirmation that there will be a delay in the sales tax rise fueling worries over the overall condition of their domestic economy. Here in Europe the signs are that UK and German markets are set to open slightly down on yesterday afternoon’s close but there is plenty of economic news out today to keep the charts busy.

The oil market is also in the spotlight today as there is the usual U.S. Crude Oil Inventory numbers out later today plus the OPEC meeting in Vienna. There is an expectation that a new production ceiling will be introduced and this is currently propping up both WTI and Brent Crude prices although there does seem to be a resistance around $50.

09:40am   Slightly late Market Update this morning as the builders are in once again for a few days. I’m in and out of the house for most of the day but any trades I have will be reported below.

Market Update:

The Asian markets ended broadly lower earlier this morning after Chinese PMI data failed to excite traders and despite optimistic Australian GDP which came in at +3.1% well ahead of expectations. The Japanese Nikkei 225 index was the biggest loser of the session after Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was reported in the media to be coming close to announcing a delay in the new sales tax rise for two years and while this is undoubtedly good news for consumers, it does show that the government is worried about the size of its debts, currently sitting at just over 220% of GDP.  As a comparison, the UK government debt stands at 88% of GDP and the U.S. is 104% currently all way above that of Kuwait and Estonia who come in at just 6%.

The U.S. markets are in focus this week as traders sort their positions out ahead of Friday’s employment numbers causing the daily S&P 500 chart to travel sideways for the last three sessions and now looks to be returning to the 2082 support level ahead of the Non Farm Payrolls announcement in a few days. European markets have opened mainly down this morning after the negative overnight Asian session with the UK FTSE 100 index gradually slowing down and becoming slightly negative as we approach the EU in/out vote in just over 3 weeks time – this also should trigger some investment in Gold as traders move to safe haven commodities in the days before the referendum.

Trading Diary:

10:10am   Not much to see on my collection of favourite charts so I am off for a bracing cycle ride in the rain for an hour or so.

12:05pm  The price is dropping fairly well on my WTI Crude chart so I am now waiting for it go lower than $48:45 when it will trigger a ‘short’ trendFX position.

12:10pm    Now in the above position, it is a strategy-1 set-up and my stop loss is a very reasonable 13 pips.

12:35pm   Off out to lunch now so set target at 20 pips.

13:55pm   Back home and seen that my WTI Crude position has been stopped out at -13 pips.

16:00pm   Possibility of a ‘long’ UTB trade on my Brent Crude 15min chart, just waiting to see if the price rises slightly, specifically above $49:13.

16:10pm   I am now in the above mentioned position with a 24 pip stop loss.

17:15pm   The Brent Crude price once again come close to the $50 level and reversed back so I am now out of my position with a +75 pip profit so I have finished the day ahead despite my earlier loss.

Chance To Answer A Popular Question

This is a question I am asked a few times every week and today’s trading brought it to mind just now.

“Will I have a trade every day with your systems ?”

If you’ve been trading for just a short length of time you will know the answer – nobody knows !  The markets do move in regulated patterns dictated by human behaviour but even so, there is no way of predicting exactly when a trade is going to come along.

Having said that, if you look back through the last seven years of my Trading Diary, you can see that it is very rare that I do not have a trade whenever I am in front of my charts for a trading session.

How is this possible ?

It’s a numbers game – as most things are. On a daily basis, I trade my main two systems (Any-Time/trendFX) and between them they have around 8 strategies to use and my favourite charts give me a choice of six instruments to trade.

And trading is also mainly psychological so if I expect to have trades each time I sit down in front of my charts, I will then have trades – it’s the way the world works I believe.   I also expect to be profitable more times than I lose but new traders who’ve had a few early losses then expect to carry on losing and the world gives them what they expect.

I firmly believe that a positive outlook produces positive results – so be careful what you think about.