07:25am I had planned a day’s trading indoors but late last night I was invited out sailing this morning so no chart watching for me today, back in front of my screens tomorrow although I shall be sending out my Triangle Trading System TRADE-ALERT sheet to subscribers before I leave for the day.
Market Update:
Overnight trading in Asian produced mixed results with most indices down although the Japanese Nikkei 225 index did post a slight rise at the close despite tech shares ending negatively. Monday’s U.S. trading session finished with the Dow Jones 30 index up just 16 points with lower oil prices weighing on sentiment, WTI Crude fell 90 cents to $45:19 last night and is trading slightly down this morning after the Asian session (currently ($45:08)
Despite ongoing geo-political risks across the world at the moment, there has been no significant flight to safety in the form of Gold buying, the yellow metal had a subdued trading session yesterday and fell $4:51 to $1328:50 but has picked up slightly early this morning and is sitting at $1330:48 as I write this. The price has been trading around its 20-day moving average for the last four sessions so we may see this level become support for further moves up.
This morning European indices are largely opening flat to negative although there is a fair amount of economic announcements due through the day to give markets some focus, here in the UK there are CPI and RPI figures due out in a few hours and later there are German ZEW and U.S. Building Permit numbers released.
08:30am I am back home after a week away and apart from some errands and shopping I shall be here in my study catching up on last week’s emails and also doing some chart watching.
Market Update:
Equity markets here in Europe and also in the U.S. ended last week mainly higher and Asian markets were mostly positively overnight although incidences in Nice and Turkey over the last few days will be in traders focus today as markets start a new week of trading. The attempted military coup on Turkey has sent the Turkish Lira falling over 5% against the U.S. Dollar and President Erdogan has been busy reassuring EU countries and global investors that the situation is firmly under control – an interesting day ahead for equities.
Gold is suffering slightly on the recent strength of the share market and the price on the daily chart has fallen down to its 20-day moving average and we will learn later today whether this level will provide any support and prompt another rise to the 2-year high of $1375 that was reached last week. Crude oil values where affected slightly by events in Turkey as the Bosphorus Strait in Istanbul sees around 3% of global oil movement come through in ships and the closure on Friday for a day during the coup attempt temporarily halted exports from the Caspian Sea region and various Black Sea ports. This morning UK Brent Crude is trading fairly flat at $47:65 after small gains last week. and U.S. WTI Crude is moving in a similiar direction.
Trading Diary:
09:05am Nothing much to get excited about on my collection of favourite charts as the week’s trading gets underway in Europe so I am off for a cycle ride in the sun for a few hours.
12:30pm Just entered a ‘short’ position on my U.S. WTI Crude Oil chart. It is a trendFX strategy-3 set-up and my stop loss is 24 pips.
15:55pm I have been outside in the garden for most of the afternoon but just looked at my chart and seen that my WTI Crude trade was well in profit so I have now closed it off at +68 pips. That’s it for trading today, back in front of my charts tomorrow morning.
07:25am Just analysed my collection of charts and sent out the daily ‘Trading-Guidance’ email to subscribers so that’s my chart watching done for the day now – it is Non Farm Payrolls announcement day on the U.S. so I will not be trading today.
I am away on holiday early tomorrow morning and I will be back trading on Monday 18th July.
Market Update:
The overnight Asian trading session closed mostly down this morning on lower oil prices and also traders adjusting their positions ahead of the U.S. jobs data which is released in around 6hrs time. Crude oil values plummeted yesterday on news of growing stockpiles in the U.S. and this is especially concerning for traders as the U.S. ‘driving season’ is underway and demand is at its highest ahead of the autumn lull, but stocks are not dropping leading commentators to believe that a glut will build up as we go towards the end of the year. U.S. WTI Crude closed down $2.66 at $45.17 although it is slightly higher at $45.49 currently with the daily chart quite oversold.
U.S. markets ended their session mostly down and this sentiment has transferred to the European open this morning where the main indices have begun in negative territory although the FTSE-100 is showing signs of bullish movement in the futures market.
The monthly U.S. jobs data release is a week late as Non Farm Payrolls is normally on the 1st Friday of the month but figures will be out in around 6hrs so expect markets to be fairly quiet in the run-up to the announcement. The jobs numbers are expected to be fairly positive after May’s disappointing figures but this has been factored into equity prices to a certain extent this week so market direction is still anyone’s guess.
07:40am Early start for me as I’d like to get some chart watching in before a shopping trip in London this afternoon.
Market Update:
U.S. markets closed slightly ahead on Wednesday ahead of tomorrow’s monthly Non Farm Payrolls on a rising oil price and the latest FOMC meeting minutes. Members of the Federal Open Market Committee are waiting for further data from both the U.S. also Europe in the wake of the UK’s exit from the EU and this all suggests that they will not consider a rate rise until at least December. Oil surged ahead on advance reports ahead of today’s U.S. Crude Oil Inventories that available stockpile will have reduced in the short term although that does have to be weighed again lower demand so we could see WTI Crude struggle to get back above the $50 level.
The overnight Asian market ended mixed although the bearish sentiment from earlier in the week has subsided after a positive U.S. close and this optimism is transferring to European markets this morning and is helping equities surge ahead in the first few minutes of trading. As mentioned yesterday, Gold is at 2 year highs and during Wednesday’s session it was further ahead, hitting $1375 just before the U.S. trading session started although profit takers have reduced that price down to $1367:20 at the moment.
Trading Diary:
08:40am Not much to see on my chart at the moment so off for a cycle ride along the beach path.
11:45am Just entered a ‘short’ position on my French CAC-40 index, it’s a UTB pattern and my stop loss is a whopping 9 pips.
13:30pm Came out of my CAC-40 position a few minutes ago ahead of the U.S. trading session open when European markets can become more volatile. The trade has ended at +23 pips and I am off to London in a few hours so no further trading for me today. Back in front of my charts tomorrow morning.
08:55am Not sure how much chart watching I will manage today as the weather is far too nice to be indoors all day, been out for a cycle ride already.
Market Update:
Equity markets are beginning to look weaker and U.S. markets are unusually taking their cue from Europe instead of the other way around. The Dow Jones 30 ended down 108 points with Goldman Sachs leading the fall and this sentiment spilled over to the overnight Asian session where only the Shanghai Composite closed positively. Traders in the far east are rushing to safe haven assets such as Gold, Japanese Yen and U.S Treasury Bonds and this has resulted in a high for Gold that we’ve not seen since 2014, it hit $1371 briefly overnight before falling back slightly and is now sitting at $1367.35.
European markets are generally bearish as well today with indices in Spain, France and Germany down on last night’s close although the FTSE-100 is fairing slightly better and is currently sitting at 6558. The UK pound is suffering though and losses overnight has pushed the level to its lowest for 31 years and banks and property shares are particularly big losers even though other sectors are holding up ok.
Oil is struggling to stay around the $50 level that we’ve seen lately as a perceived lack of demand takes hold due to a bearish outlook for the the world economy as a whole, WTI Crude slipped back $1:90 yesterday to close at $46:83 and is currently slightly lower at $46:49.
Trading Diary:
11:55am No trades to report from this morning’s session although I have been out on the garden for most of it ! Out to an early lunch now but I will look my favourite instruments when I get back to see if there are any opportunities.
14:15pm Just run through my list of favourite charts and no trade set-ups but my wider search has highlighted a ‘short’ trendFX strategy-1 trade on my Cable chart (GBP/USD) and I am now in that trade with a 59 pips. This higher than usual stop loss (for me) is partly due to the fact I am using a higher timeframe than I usually do and also the current volatility in this forex pair.
16:10pm The Cable chart has moved down nicely but is now showing signs of volatility with a bullish slant so I am now out with a +71 pip profit.
08:15am Back in the UK after a short break and I shall be here at home for most of the day catching up on emails and doing some chart watching. Any trades I have will be reported below.
Market Update:
Markets seem to be suffering from a post-Brexit depression and the overnight Asian trading session ended mixed but mainly down overall. The U.S. markets were closed yesterday for their Independence Day celebrations and Europe also had a fairly bearish time on Monday as more commentators are coming out to warn of recession, doom and gloom for the next few years as the UK continues with its divorce from the EU. The head of the IMF, Christine Lagarde has estimated that the UK’s gross domestic product is going to fall by between 1.5% and 4.5% in the next 3 years and this and other worries set the tone for trader’s actions at the beginning of the week.
With uncertainty in equity markets, Gold is usually going to be bullish and Monday’s trading session saw the precious metal rise to an intraday high of $1357.40 before retreating slightly – this level was reached in the hours after the Brexit vote but previously has not been seen since March 2014. The overnight Asian session has seen the price fall back to $1344 on profit taking. The Crude Oil price is under pressure as demand could be lower if the economic predictions play out here in Europe, WTI Crude fell 26 cents yesterday to $48:74 and is falling further this morning, currently at $48:01.
Trading Diary:
10:00am Nothing to see on my collection of favourite charts for the last hour so I am off for a cycle ride with some fellow traders.
11:55am Just got into a ‘short’ position on my German Dax-30 chart, it is a trendFX strategy-1 set-up with a 21 pip stop loss.
14:30pm Just back from lunch out and my Dax trade is still running, currently sitting at +11 pips although it has been higher while I was out. I shall watch it over the next hour or so and see if the bearish sentiment continues. Pleased to see the FTSE-100 is fairing much better than the European indices which all seem to be trading negatively so far today.
16:10pm The European session is coming to an end and the bearish momentum is slowing slightly so I have come out of my Dax position with a +51 pip profit.
08:25am Not much planned today ahead of a 5-day break away tonight (until Monday afternoon) but I will be doing some chart watching from time to time. Any trades I do have will be reported below.
Back trading next Tuesday (5th July)
Market Update:
The overnight Asian trading session ended largely up after a positive Tuesday in Europe and the U.S. as Brexit fears are subsiding with Japan’s Nikkei 225 index coming out with the highest rise – it closed up by 1.6%. The S&P-500 and Dow Jones 30 both finished ahead yesterday as UK Prime Minister Cameron spoke at a EU meeting and began the long process of Britain’s divorce from the European economic market.
In London, the FTSE-100 has largely recovered from Friday’s falls and this morning is trading at 6232 which is not far from the pre-referendum level of 6315 which was last Thursday’s open – this compares favourably with the rest of Europe where most indices are still lagging behind last week’s average reading showing that the EU is probably going to suffer more than the UK is when we leave. Spain and Italy are suffering more than most but does reflect on their overall economic problems as they really do need EU membership to keep their respective economies above water.
U.S. markets enjoyed a positive day on Tuesday on rising oil prices and bargain hunters seeking out cheap stocks after traders over reacted to Friday’s Brexit vote, both their main indices were up around 1.5%at the close last night. Gold has been enjoying a good run-up on a flight to safety during these volatile times but this week it has levelled off around the $1320 level after rising on Friday from $1251 and Crude Oil is also up on worries about a strike in Norway – remember today is the weekly U.S. stock situation announcement so expect some large moves this afternoon (UK time)
Trading Diary:
09:35am Updating this diary is even slower than normal this morning for some reason – but I can now report that I entered a ‘long’ position on on my S&P-500 chart around 30 minutes ago using strategy-1 from my trendFX system. The stop loss on this occasion is 38 pips which is fairly average for a 30 minute chart.
12:30pm I am still in my S&P-500 trade and as it coming up to the U.S. trading session open in the next hour I have moved my stop loss to break even but left my target open as I will be watching my chart while I take some Skype calls.
13:50pm Going for quick lunch, my trade is still pottering up the chart and is currently sitting at +95 pips. I have moved my stop upto +50 pips to protect my profit while I’m out.
16:55pm Just closed off my S&P-500 position as I have now completed my trading for the week, back in front of my charts on Tuesday morning. The trade ended at +223 pips.
07:20am Just sent out my daily ‘Trading Guidance’ email to subscribers and I shall be here at home for the rest of the morning catching up on emails, chart watching and I’ll also be sending out my latest Triangle Trading TRADE-ALERT sheet.
Market Update:
The global sell-off has abated slightly as we go into Tuesday’s European trading session with the overnight Asian market alternating between bulls and bears throughout the night and early morning. The biggest casualty was the Hang Seng Index which fell 0.77%, a minor result compared with recent price moves after the UK Brexit vote. European markets are opening positively so far but a few traders I have spoken to already this morning are bracing themselves for further falls this week, with both major U.S. indices losing upto 1.80% yesterday.
The sharp rise in the Gold price at the end of last week has slowed considerably and it is now going sideways so the high of $1358 reached early on Friday morning may well be the best we will see this week, currently it is sitting at $1315.10 with the Daily chart overbought hinting at a move down this morning. The crude oil price has been falling since the Brexit vote and U.S. WTI Crude has now found some small support at the 20-day moving average around the $46:05 level and is now trading at $47:09 with my MMOSc indicator oversold hinting at bullish sentiment.
Trading Diary:
08:35am I am off for a cycle ride while the markets settle down – back in an hour or so.
10:25am Just got back home and scanning my charts I can see there’s a possibility of a ‘long’ trade on both of my crude oil charts, more details soon if the prices rise.
10:40am Now in a ‘long’ position on my WTI Crude Oil chart, it’s a trendFX strategy-1 set-up with a 16 pip stop loss.
11:55pm The upward momentum in the oil market is slowing slightly so I have just come out of my WTI Crude position with a +34 pip profit.
16:50pm No more trading after returning from lunch just been catching up on emails and compiling my Triangle & Trend Line TRADE-ALERT sheets for subscribers.
08:00am I shall be here at home all day watching the markets and catching up on emails/Skype calls. Not sure how much trading I will be doing, it all depends on whether the markets settle down enough but any trades will be detailed below.
Market Update:
After Friday’s market volatility, UK Chancellor George Osborne spoke before European markets opened in an attempt to calm trader’s concerns over the Brexit decision. On the whole this does seem to have worked in London although various European indices have opened sharply down – notably Spain and Italy which does go to show that the EU could come out worse than the UK over this situation and many commentators are predicting the beginning of the end for the European Union.
The value of the pound is still falling after large readjustments on Friday although this does help UK exporters in the short term and it will be a few days yet before certain forex charts settle down and resume previous trends. There is talk on some trading floors in London that we may see the Bank of England cutting its minimum lending rate close to zero and the U.S. Federal Reserve will now undoubtedly delay their own decision on increasing rates until at least the end of the year.
Asian markets overnight have largely shrugged off the concerns of an impending European break-up and finished optimistically earlier this morning. The Japanese Nikkei 225 was notable in closing over 2% higher and the Yen has benefitted from a flight to safety as has Gold which has risen over $75 since Thursday night and is currently sitting at $1325.77 although it has been as high as $1358.30 at the height of the volatility on Friday, a level not seen since March 2014 .
Trading Diary:
08:45am Markets still quite volatile as today’s European trading session gets going so nothing yet in the way of trade opportunities for me so I am off for a cycle ride for an hour or so.
12:10pm There could be an opportunity coming up — if the WTI Crude price drops below $47:24 in the next 30 minutes or so a trendFX ‘short’ trade will trigger.
12:25pm I am now in a ‘short’ position on my WTI Crude chart, my stop loss is 19 pips.
13:20pm As the markets are inherently volatile at the moment and as the U.S. trading session is about to begin I have just brought my stop loss upto break-even in case the price shoots up quickly. My position is sitting at +36 pips currently.
14:50pm The WTI price has come down quite considerably but his touched the $46.50 level a few times and reversed upwards so I am now out of my trade with a +62 pip profit.
15:05pm Just taken a ‘short’ position on the FTSE-100 chart, it’s another trendFX trade but strategy-1 this time. My stop loss is 22 pips.
21:20pm Technical hitch prevented me from reporting on my FTSE trade earlier – I closed the trade off at +33 pips.
07:50am No trading for me today as the markets have yet to settle down after the UK population voted to leave the EU, I will be back in front of my charts on Monday.
Market Update:
As you are probably aware already, the UK has voted fairly resoundingly to leave the EU and rumours around the city seem to suggest that David Cameron will also resign at some stage today which is probably not a big surprise given the stance he has had over the last few months of the referendum campaign. Reaction in the city is much as you would expect, the UK pound has dropped around 8% with similiar falls across equity markets and here in London the banks and house builders have taken the biggest with drops of upto 30% for some high street banks.
Overnight the Asian market has also fallen with the Japanese Nikkei 225 ending over 7% down but the main Chinese Shanghai Composite finished less dramatically at -1.33% which is probably a reflection on just how little this vote will effect the Chinese economy due to its size. U.S. markets closed up last night on hopes of a remain vote but the overnight futures market has reversed and reflects the European open where indices in France, Germany and Spain are off by 6% – 9%.
Inevitably Gold has benefited from the uncertainty that the Brexit has given the markets and it is currently sitting up around $70 today at $1318.25 although it has been as high $1358 during the middle of the overnight Asian session.
Overall it’s going to be an interesting day on the markets.
