07:25am I shall be here in the study this morning catching up on emails and doing some chart watching so any trades I do have will be reported below.
Market Update:
Main news in the market is the decision by the U.S. Federal Reserve to keep their minimum lending rate as the record low of 0.50% with Fed chief Janet Yellen stating that she expects to raise rates at sometime this year which most traders take to mean December. U.S. equity markets rallied on the decision with the tech-heavy Nasdaq index closed up 53.85 to post a record high of 55295.18 (+1%) and the wider S&P-500 rose 23.36 to 2163.12 (+1.1%) This optimism spilled over to the overnight Asian market where most indices closed up although the Nikkei 225 was not trading due to the Autumnal Equinox Bank Holiday.
Crude oil markets rose yesterday on news that U.S. Crude Inventories fell last week after a surprising draw on stocks of just over 6.2 million barrels against an expectation of a rise of 3.4 million – the stock situation was at 504.60 million barrels. WTI Crude rose $1:13 to end the session at $45:61 and is slightly higher this morning at $45:72. Gold is rallying at the moment off the recent support at $1305 and rose to $1335:20 last night, up around $22 on the day.
Trading Diary:
08:10am Nothing much to see to on my collection of favourite charts so I am off for a (15 mile) cycle ride.
10:05am Just entered a ‘long’ trendFX strategy-3 position on my FTSE-100 chart, my stop loss is 18 pips.
11:15am Out of my trade now for no better reason than a friend has just arrived and I do not want to be watching my screens for the next hour or so. The position has managed +36 pips.
08:30am Nice quiet day here at home catching up on emails & Skype calls plus some chart watching from time to time. Any trades I have will be reported below.
Market Update: Main news in the markets today is the two central bank announcements – the Bank Of Japan has already held their press conference outlining upcoming policy and the U.S. FOMC statement is due at 19:00pm UK time. European indices have had a good start this morning following the Bank Of Japan’s decision to keep rates on hold and abandon its target to increase the monetary base but it has launched yield curve controls and scrapped the bond buying range which has surprised traders and also caused the Nikkei 225 index to rally in the past few hours.
Later this evening UK time is the Fed rate decision which is widely expected to announce that there will be no hike this month, after some disappointing economic numbers out in the past few weeks. This paves the way for a December rate rise as the markets have priced in one move up before 2017. In the run-up to the announcement the markets are expected to be quite subdued although the Bank Of Japan’s surprise announcement has caused some volatility to keep traders busy this morning.
We also have the weekly U.S. Crude Oil stock situation this afternoon so expect some sharp moves in the WTI Crude and Brent charts, they have been in a narrowing price channel for past few weeks with no real direction but they have shown a small amount of bullish price action this week.
Trading Diary:
10:15am Just entered a ‘long’ position on my Dax-30 15min chart, it’s a trendFX strategy-1 pattern with a ‘whopping’ 11 pip stop loss.
11:50am Just been invited out for a game of golf for the rest of the day so I have closed off my Dax position at +43 pips.
Back in front of my charts tomorrow morning.
09:05am Slightly later than normal Market Update this morning as I’ve had a busy start to my first day back in front of the screens since last Friday. While compiling my daily Trading-Guidance sheet I noticed a developing trendFX pattern on my FTSE-100 chart and further details are below.
Market Update:
Traders are largely sitting on their hands and waiting for central bank decisions from Japan and the U.S. and the result has been some volatile moves on low volumes this morning so far. The overnight Asian session ended mixed as traders were reluctant to enter any new positions ahead of the Japanese central bank announcement.
The Bank Of Japan and U.S. Federal Reserve are both starting 2-day meetings today to decide on their respective interest rates so markets could well become quieter in the run-up to the announcements although this morning it does seem that lower volumes are not causing quiet currency charts but sudden moves so tread carefully if you are trading forex for the next few days.
Crude oil is continuing to fall with U.S. WTI Crude at $43:63 this morning after Venezuela’s Oil Minister Eulogio Del Pino suggested that global oil supplies were 10% too high and oil traders are now looking at the small support level at $43:00 and if that does not hold there is a stronger level around $40:00.
Trading Diary:
09:15am As mentioned above, I am already in a ‘long’ trendFX strategy-3 position on my UK FTSE-100 chart. My stop loss is 16 pips.
11:40am Going off for cycle ride in a minute so I’ve closed off my FTSE position as I was happy with the score (+46 pips)
16:10pm In the past couple of hours since I’ve been back from lunch there’s been no interesting opportunities on my collection of favourite charts so I am switching them off for the day - back tomorrow morning.
08:25am Away on a short 3-day break at lunchtime so just a few hours of trading this morning – any trades I have will be reported below.
Market Update:
The overnight Asian trading session was quite subdued as a majority of indices were closed due to national holidays although yesterday’s U.S. session closed fairly upbeat with the main S&P-500 finishing 21.49 points up (+1.01%) although this optimism has not extended to this morning’s European session where most indices have opened down in the past few minutes. The U.S. equity markets have not really recovered from the large falls last week as uncertainty over interest rates still dominate.
In Germany, bank shares have been hit hard this morning as Deutsche Bank has been hit with a $14 billion fine from the U.S Department Of Justice over suggestions of mis-selling of mortgage-backed securities so there are concerns other financial institutions will suffer the same fate.
In the Crude Oil markets, U.S. WTI Crude is still heading down towards the small $43.00 support level as worries over higher production still dominate the charts. Brent Crude is also looking fairly bearish this morning and is heading towards the $45:70 level.
Trading Diary:
11:15am I sent out a chart earlier to subscribers of my daily Trading-Guidance email showing a possible price break-out on the GBP/USD chart and even though it’s not a chart I usually trade I have just got into a ‘short’ position as the price has indeed broken to the downside. It’s a trendFX strategy-3 set-up and my stop loss is 24 pips.
13:35pm It’s almost time to get going on my long weekend trip away so I’ve closed off my GBP/USD position at +36 pips.
My total for the past 3-days of trading is +145 pips, happy with that for the week.
09:20am Another day at home catching up on emails and doing some chart watching – any trades I have through the day will be reported below. Slightly later than normal market update this morning as I’ve already been out on my daily cycle ride as it was so sunny earlier on.
Market Update:
The Chinese markets are closed for the mid-autumn festival today so there was a fairly subdued overnight Asian session following on from the slightly negative U.S. close last night. Equity markets seem to treading carefully at the moment on worries over what Central Banks are going to do in the next few weeks with Bank Of Japan and the U.S. Federal Reserve the main protagonists.
Wednesday’s U.S. Crude Oil stock numbers announcement caused the usual amount of volatility in the markets after it was shown that U.S. inventories dropped by nearly 560,000 barrels against an expected rise of 3.8 million barrels although this optimistic news did nothing to calm the market and WTI Crude fell $1:40 during yesterday’s session to close at $43:61 but the price has stabilised overnight and is currently trading at $43:55.
The price falls that Gold has experienced in the past week slowed yesterday as the price has found support around its 200-day moving average so today’s price-action will confirm if this is a major support or just a stopping off point in the journey down to the $1300 level again.
Trading Diary:
10:25am I have just entered a ‘long’ trendFX strategy-3 position on my S&P-500 15min chart with a 37 pip stop loss.
12:05pm The S&P price has become suddenly quite volatile so I am now out of my position at +37 pips. Happy with that score so no more chart watching until tomorrow morning.
07:50am Back in front of my charts today after an extended break away from the screens – any trades I have before a golf match at 3pm will be detailed below.
Market Update:
While I’ve been away from my chart there’s been a fair amount of volatility and U.S. equities have suffered particularly badly with the main S&P-500 index falling from a high on Friday on 2190 to this morning’s level at 2133.56. Worries over the September U.S. rate decision and falling oil prices are the main culprits and this sentiment also caused the overnight Asian market to falter, although concerns that the Bank Of Japan is going to cut rates even further does inspire much confidence.
Oil prices have dropped over $2 in the past four days although the value is stabilising after a report last night that there has been a lower than normal build in U.S. stockpiles over the last week – the Crude Oil Inventories are announced later today so we will have confirmation soon with a corresponding rise to the $46 level for WTI Crude perhaps ? Although equities are suffering at the moment, there has still not been any corresponding rise in the Gold price, it hit a high of $1352:50 a week ago and has subsequently fallen to its present level of $1321:45 although the daily chart does look as though it is lining up for a small rebound today – both daily and weekly timeframes are quite oversold currently.
Trading Diary:
08:35am Just got into a ‘short’ UTB position on my Gold chart, my stop loss is 16 pips.
10:10am I have checked my account and can see my Gold position was stopped out about 10 minutes ago at -16 pips.
12:25pm Another UTB trade - I am now in a ‘short’ position on my WTI Crude chart with a 20 pip stop loss. There will be a certain amount of volatility on this chart quite soon so I will break with tradition and watch this trade carefully.
13:35pm Off out for quick lunch so brought my stop loss upto +20 pips to protect my position – it is currently sitting at +41 pips.
14:55pm I am back from lunch and I have just closed off my second trade of the day – I’m off out for the rest of the afternoon soon, the position had reached +88 pips and the Crude Oil Inventories numbers are going to be released very soon – three extremely good reasons to end my trading for the day…
07:15am Away from my charts now until next Tuesday as I am helping finish a building project I’m involved in.
Market Update:
U.S. equity markets ended slightly down after a choppy session although the Nasdaq Index did buck this trend by posting its fourth winning day in a row. The Dow Jones 30 and S&P-500 has been trading in a fairly narrow band for the last eight weeks as traders try to guess what the Federal Reserve’s decision will be regarding the September interest rate debate. The general consensus seems to be ‘no rise’ and this is benefiting Gold at the moment, it has had a good run-up since last Thursday and is now heading for the next minor resistance at $1357 (currently $1347.40)
The overnight Asian market ended mainly down except for the Hang Seng Index which closed 0.50% up and the European session has started slightly up ahead of the European Central Bank meeting and its Governor Mario Draghi’s speech in a few hours. There is no real expectation of a rate rise but traders will be listening out for some forward guidance regarding the bank’s policy for the rest of the year.
Thursday is U.S. Crude Oil Inventories and the expectation is for a large draw on stocks and this was the main driver behind a 1.5% rise in the WTI Crude price yesterday, it closed at $46.11 last night and is up slightly this morning at $46.35.
07:10am Early start today as I wanted to check my charts after yesterday technical issues – all seem ok at the moment. Last day of trading for me this week and any trades I do have will be reported below.
Market Update:
Yesterday’s U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI survey came in well under expectations with a figure of 51.4 which although is still above the benchmark 50 level that denotes expansion was far lower than the July figure of 55.5. This contraction is leading traders to believe the U.S. economy could be slowing slightly which in turn puts a September rate hike from the Federal Reserve in jeopardy so markets are starting to look generally bullish once again in Europe and the U.S.
Despite the optimism in equity markets, Gold is seeing a surge at the moment as U.S. interest rates look to be kept at record lows for a further few months, it rose $23.50 during yesterday’s session to close at $1349.80 and is little changed this morning. Across on the oil market the announcement on Monday that Saudi Arabia and Russia would agree production limits in their respective oil industries gave WTI and Brent Crude an initial boost in price but as the week has advanced there are now doubts on trading floors that any pact will work (or ever be signed off) so we’ve seen a halt in the bullish sentiment in the crude markets in the past 12hrs. UK Brent Crude is trading this morning at $45.12 against a high on Monday of $46.51
Trading Diary:
09:35am There are no upcoming trade opportunities on my usual collection of favourite charts so I am off on a cycle ride for an hour or so.
11:45am There could well be a potential trendFX trade on my 15min S&P-500 chart if the price drops below 2184.10 in the 30 minutes or so.
12:05pm The price has dropped and I am now in the above mentioned ‘short’ position — my stop loss on this occasion is 13 pips. I have also just entered a long UTB position on my Gold chart, it has a 15 pip stop loss.
13:05pm Just been stopped out of my Gold position at -15 pips.
13:35pm I am also now out of my S&P-500 position, as expected it became very volatile as today’s session opened and closed it off at +16 pips.
15:40pm Back from a rather late lunch and looking at my charts and they do seem to be acting/moving with quite a bit of volatility still so nothing to report yet. I’m sititng here catching up on emails for the next few hours and then two Skype calls at 5:30pm and 6pm so I will still watch them from time to time and see if there are any other opportunities.
18:15pm Nothing more to report trading-wise, time for the pub after a long day in the study.
07:20am Back home and planning a relaxing time here today catching-up on emails and doing some chart watching. Any trades I have will be reported below.
Market Update:
U.S. markets were on holiday yesterday so Europe had a fairly quiet session yesterday which ended largely down although the overnight Asian session was slightly more upbeat and most indices ended their day positively apart from the Australian ASX-200. The Reserve Bank of Australia has held rates at 1.5% citing a steady economy with reasonable growth together with low inflation but this has disappointed traders which has had a negative effect on equities.
The Oil market is back in the news with a reported agreement between two of the largest world producers of crude. Saudi Arabia and Russia have signed an agreement to explore ways to stabilise the oil price and initially this sent the markets upwards although some gains have been reversed as the Saudi Oil Minister Khalid al-Falih has subsequently said that there is no need to cut production yet, which is fairly true to form for the Saudis who do like to have ultimate control of the oil market even though they belong to the wider OPEC club. UK Brent Crude rose just under $1 yesterday and is looking fairly bullish again this morning, currently up 10 cents at $47:84.
Trading Diary
09:30am Not much on my charts at the moment as the European session gets underway so I am off for a cycle ride along the beach path.
11:10am I have not seen any opportunities on my favourite charts since I’ve returned home so I ventured further afield to see what was occurring on some other charts while compiling my Trend-Line ALERT SHEET and I found a ‘short’ UTB trade on my Spanish Ibex-35 chart. It’s not an instrument I normally trade as it can be volatile on occasions (much like the Spanish economy) but despite that, I am now in a ‘short’ position on this chart with a very reasonable 13 pips stop loss.
12:15pm My Ibex position is struggling to go any lower at the moment so I closed it off a short while ago at +13 pips.
13:00pm Just entered a ‘short’ trendFX position on my U.S. WTI Crude chart - it’s a strategy-3 pattern and my stop loss is 37 pips which is not too bad at the moment considering the volatility in the oil markets.
13:20pm Going for a quick lunch at the Red Lion so as my WTI trade is still running I’ve brought the stop loss up a bit to -10 pips in case the market goes against me as the U.S. trading session opens in 10 minutes.
14:50pm Back now and happy with my score on the WTI trade so I’ve closed the position off at +72 pips.
16:05pm Issues with charts so calling it day at my screens – back tomorrow morning as usual.
08:05am No chart watching for me today as it’s Non Farm Payrolls day once again – I will be back in front of my charts on Tuesday after a long weekend break.
Market Update:
Today’s Market Update is short of news as most traders are just sitting on the sidelines for the next few hour and waiting for the U.S. jobs report numbers for August, which are released at 13:30pm UK time. An encouraging number will increase the possibility of the Federal Reserve increasing interest rates this month but whatever the figures end up at, the one thing you can expect is some decent market volatility straight after the numbers are released. There is an expectation of around 180,00 jobs added last month so watch to see if the number comes in higher as equity markets could react negatively to this.
Both yesterday’s U.S. trading session and the overnight Asian one ended fairly flat as traders were reluctant to open new positions ahead of the Non Farm Payrolls announcement and the start of this morning’s European session is fairly subdued although most indices ended down yesterday on falling oil prices. U.S. WTI Crude ended almost 3% down on Thursday evening but has recovered slightly this morning and is trading currently at $43.48 although the lower timeframe charts are looking bearish again.