07:55am Relaxing day at home in front of the screens doing some chart watching plus catching up on emails – any trades I have will be reported below.
Market Update:
A potentially interesting day on the markets as U.S. citizens begin go to the polls to elect their next President. Early exit polls should start emerging around late afternoon (European time) and there is still a perception that markets will rise if Clinton comes out ahead but if Republican Donald Trump ends up winning we will most probably see a fall in equities due to perceived uncertainty with regard to future policy. A Reuters/IPSOS States of the Nation poll yesterday gave Hilary Clinton a 90% chance of coming out ahead and this was one of the drivers that sent U.S. equity markets higher by the close of Monday’s trading session.
The overnight Asian trading session ended mainly up on optimism over the U.S. election result despite poor Trade Balance data from China but the Japanese Nikkei 225 index did close slightly down over concerns about the ‘safe-haven’ Yen spiking if Trump wins later today. European equities started bearish this morning although most are now recovering as a general optimism grips the markets – Gold is holding steady over the last few hours after falls yesterday caused by equity buying instead.
Crude oil markets have fallen considerably over the past 3-weeks but yesterday saw a respite as prices stabilised after hitting a support level at $43:50 with many traders believing this is just some short-term bargain hunting. There is still no agreement in sight for reduced production amongst OPEC countries and other large producers so there is no assumption that we have seen a bottom to the market yet.
Trading Diary:
10:10am Just got back from a ‘bracing’ cycle ride and seen that a ‘short’ UTB trade on my S&P-500 chart had triggered a little while ago but as the price had not fallen by much yet I have managed to get into the position at an advantageous price – my stop loss is just 14 pips.
12:15pm Off for an early lunch so I have moved my stop loss up to break even for protection as I will not be in front of my screens when the U.S. trading session opens in just over an hour’s time and here could be some volatility then.
13:55pm Back home now and my S&P-500 position is still in profit so I will hang on and see how the price action develops.
14:05pm Price becoming more volatile so I have moved my stop upto +20 pips to protect some of my profits.
14:50pm Out of my S&P-500 position now, the market is getting increasingly volatile and unpredictable so I have come out with an acceptable +87 pip profit. That will do me for the day, back here in front of my screens tomorrow.
08:25am No trading for me today as it’s the U.S. monthly jobs announcement and I traditionally do not worry about any chart watching on this day – back in front of my screens next Tuesday.
Market Update:
News and movements in the markets is still dominated by the U.S. elections at the moment although there is a slight distraction in a few hours when the Non Farm Payrolls numbers are released by the U.S. Bureau Of Labor Statistics – even a slight rise in monthly employment will signal to traders that the Federal Reserve will more than likely raise interest rates at their December meeting.
The bigger story however is the out come of the U.S. elections next Tuesday/Wednesday and markets are becoming more bearish as time goes on with many investors looking for some temporary safe haven for their money for the next week or so. As I have mentioned before, Gold has enjoyed a good run-up over the last month or so from a low of $1240 to its current level of around $1300 which is proving to be a small resistance area although as we get closer to the election result this commodity will probably rise above that level a few times.
The overnight Asian markets ended mainly down with the Japanese Nikkei-225 index leading the losses at -1.34% and the European session is opening in the same way with all major indices registering losses in the first hour of trading.
07:45am Nice relaxing day at home catching up on emails and doing some chart watching – any trades I do have will be detailed below.
Market Update:
As the U.S. election draws closer, the markets are generally becoming more bearish, U.S. equities closed lower last night and the overnight Asian session was mixed with most indices down except the Shanghai Composite which closed up +0.84%. This pessimism is drawing investors towards Gold for its perceived ‘safe-haven’ properties and this sentiment saw it rise above the $1300 level for the first time in 3 weeks although it is struggling to stay above this important support/resistance line this morning so watch the chart for any trading opportunities.
Crude Oil’s fall was halted temporarily last night after news of an attack on a major Nigerian pipeline could affect supplies – WTI Crude hit a recent low this week of $44:95 after higher than expected rise in U.S. oil stocks kept up the bearish momentum but last night’s news caused a small buying spree in futures contracts and it is currently trading at $45:52.
Today’s session will see economic news out of the UK and U.S. and tomorrow we have the monthly U.S. job numbers (Non Farm Payrolls) so we should see a busy trading day before markets quieten down overnight.
Trading Diary:
10:10am Just returned from a quick bike ride and have had a late entry to a ‘long’ UTB position on my WTI Crude chart – the price was hanging around the entry level so I got in even though the trade triggered about 15 minutes ago. My stop loss is 14 pips.
10:25am Now also in a ‘short’ position on my Gold chart - it’s a trendFX strategy-3 set-up with a slightly higher than usual 35 pip stop loss which reflects the volatility in the market this morning.
11:50am I have a couple of meetings now so I am unable to watch my charts for the next hour so I’ve closed my positions off as they were both in profit. Results are WTI Crude trade +27 pips and Gold trade +51 pips. Back in front of my charts after lunchtime.
16:15pm Got back here about 30 minutes ago and nothing much to see on my group of favourite charts so turning off these screens now. It’s Non Farm Payrolls day tomorrow so no trading for me as usual.
I will be back in front of the charts next Tuesday after a long weekend away although I do not expect much movement in the markets for most of the session as traders will most likely be sitting on their hands waiting for the outcome of the U.S. Presidential Elections. A Clinton win will probably result in a ‘relief’ rally whereas a Trump victory will send the market into a tailspin as nobody really knows how he’s going to run the country. An interesting week ahead……….
09:05am After an ‘impromptu’ day-off yesterday I am back in front of my charts today - trades I have will be detailed below and I am already in a ‘short’ trade at the moment – scroll down for details.
Market Update:
The markets are being lead by latest polls for the U.S. election which a small lead for Donald Trump and this is bad news as markets do not like the uncertainty that will come with Mr Trump leading the most powerful country in the world. U.S. equities started the fall yesterday with the S&P-500 down by 14 points at the end of its session last night and overnight Asian session carried on the bearish momentum and ended mainly down with the Hang Seng Index leading the losses at -337 points.
European equities have reacted in a similiar direction at the open a short while ago although losses are being paired back slightly as traders embark on some bargain hunting after the first hour of trading. Figures out of the UK look ok this morning with house builders fairly upbeat as the construction PMI number came in better than expected.
Gold is back in fashion as investors look for a safe haven ahead of the uncertainty surrounding the U.S. election, it has risen this week close the important $1300 level so watch for some trading opportunities as the price approaches this point. Crude Oil prices are falling for a 4th day in a row as concerns over a growing worldwide stockpile emerge ahead of this afternoon’s U.S. Crude Oil Inventories number – I am currently taking advantage of this bearish price action with a ‘short’ trade on Brent Crude.
Trading Diary:
09:10am Entered a ‘short’ Brent Crude position a while ago – it’s a trendFX strategy-1 pattern with a 21 pip stop loss.
10:50am Just been invited out on a cycle ride so I have closed off my Brent Crude trade at +44 pips.
11:50am Back now and just entered a ‘long’ position on my GOLD 30 minute chart – it is another trendFX strategy-1 pattern with a 23 pip stop loss this time.
12:30pm I am now going for an early lunch with some fellow traders so I have now closed off the GOLD position with a +26 pip profit, the price came within a whisker of the $1300 support/resistance level a few minutes ago so happy with the trade’s score.
08:40am I’ve not been at home much this week so I am having a relaxing day catching up on emails and unusually for a Friday – doing some chart watching from time to time as well. Any trades I do have will be reported below.
Market Update:
The overnight Asian trading session ended mainly down as energy stocks fell after further declines in the crude oil price. U.S. WTI Crude had a fairly positive time yesterday but once it hit the $50 level during the U.S. afternoon trading session it quickly retreated and carried falling with a brief respite a few hours ago. It is now trading in the $49.50-$49.60 range with the daily chart suggesting a small move up today.
Thursday’s U.S. trading session closed slightly down after a fair amount of volatility due to the latest round of corporate earnings and the value of sovereign bonds falling across most of the world. These bonds are issued by governments as a way of borrowing money and smaller, less stable countries will often issue them in U.S. Dollars or other ‘well-respected’ currencies so as to make them more attractive to investors and traders.
Fairly strong U.S. home sales data released on Wednesday is pointing towards a Fed rate rise this year and this is one of the factors keeping European equity markets lower this morning and later today there is the U.S. Advance GDP numbers out which analysts are predicting will rise month on month – another reason rates could be hiked soon although the smart money still seems to be on a December rise and no sooner.
Trading Diary:
10:25am Found a ‘short’ trading opportunity on my GOLD 15-min chart, it’s a trendFX strategy-1 set-up and my stop loss is a very reasonable 11 pips.
11:35am Now in another ‘short’ position, this time a UTB trade on my WTI Crude chart – the stop loss is also 11 pips.
13:35pm Due to the expected volatility now that the U.S. trading session is getting underway, my GOLD position has just been stopped out at -11 pips but so far my WTI Crude trade is doing ok so I will stick with it for a while.
14:10pm A minute or so ago I came out of my WTI Crude position as the market got increasingly volatile as well – my score was +36 pips so I’ve managed +25 pips today at the moment. Off for a late lunch.
15:30pm Back from lunch and nothing much happening on my collection of favourite charts so I am finishing for the week and turning my MT4 screens off – back here on Tuesday morning.
07:25am Off out for the day in a few hours with some trader friends so no chart watching for me today – but back in front of my screens tomorrow.
Market Update:
Yesterday’s U.S. trading session was fairly volatile and switched from positive to negative a few times as the earning reporting season gets underway and it ended slightly down at the close following on from a bearish European session on Wednesday as well. The overnight Asian session did not fair much better with equity markets all showing red earlier this morning with the Chinese Hang Seng and Australian ASX-200 indices leading the way at over 1% down by the close.
Crude oil values are continuing their bearish trend despite the encouraging U.S. stock situation that was reported yesterday, traders are still not convinced that OPEC will deliver on production restrictions as there are a growing number of members who are putting their own countries oil earnings above the common good of other OPEC members. And there is also a growing realisation on trading floors that if OPEC does cut production, non member countries will just up their own output to fill the gap. WTI Crude ended slightly down last night despite a $1.08 rise as soon as the favourable Crude Inventory number was announced, it is currently trading at $49.28, down from October’s high of $52.17 that was reached last week.
Gold’s rise this month from its $1240 minor support is slowing now despite continued buying from India and it seems to have found resistance at the 20-day moving average – there could be some interesting trading opportunities at this level.
Trading Diary:
10:10am I had not expected to do any trading this morning but as I was compiling my latest Triangle Trading System TRADE-ALERT Sheet I noticed a trendFX strategy-1 pattern on the Gold chart so I am now in a ‘long’ position with a 9 pip stop loss. As I am off out very soon for the rest of the day I shall set a target of +20 pips and leave it to run.
09:00am After a busy week so far I am having a quiet day at home today catching up on emails and doing some chart watching from time to time – any trades I have will be detailed below.
Market Update:
Equity markets have taken on a bearish slant since I’ve been away from my screens and Tuesday’s U.S. trading session ended negatively (Dow Jones 30 closed -54 points) on disappointing corporate results – it was probably the busiest one-day of reporting this year so far as around 90 companies released latest earnings. Another factor that’s dragging markets down is the fall in Crude Oil prices at the moment which has been triggered by worries over lower demand for this time of year together with growing stocks. This will be confirmed later today when U.S. Crude Oil Inventories are released (in around 7-hours time) so watch for a small spike in the WTI Crude chart.
Overnight, the Asian markets followed followed the general sentiment and ended largely down although Gold is holding up fairly well which can partly be attributed to the October/November Indian Festival Season plus the shift from equities into safer commodities – the price hit a 3-week high during yesterday’s session of $1276.60 but has slipped back slightly this morning on profit taking.
Trading Diary:
10:50am Just entered a ‘long’ position on my Brent Crude Oil chart using the UTB set-up – it will not be an extended trade as the market is fairly volatile due to the the Crude Oil Inventories coming out soon so I shall be watching the chart carefully over the next hour. My stop loss is 14 pips.
11:25am Out of my Brent position now – I did close it at +14 pips due to the volatility but due to some rare slippage the profit came out at +13 pips.
13:10pm No other trades to report so far — off for a late lunch for a few hours.
15:35 pm Been back from lunch for half an hour and have seen no further trading opportunities so I am finishing my trading for the day – back here on Friday as I have the chance of a day out with some fellow traders tomorrow.
07:10am Early start for me today as I am off out at lunchtime to help a friend with a small project for a few days. Any trades I have this morning will be detailed below and I will be back here on Wednesday hopefully.
Market Update:
The overnight Asian market has ended mixed but European equity indices are expected to show slight gains on Friday’s close although there’s not much economic news being released today to give any momentum to the markets. Both U.S. and European indices ended last week positively and are all developing bullish trends on their higher timeframe charts although technical resistance levels are all fairly close so expect some interesting price action and trading opportunities as we enter the last full week of trading for the current month.
U.S. interest rates are constantly in the headlines at the moment and on Friday the San Francisco Federal Reserve President John Williams said it makes sense to get back to gradual rate increases sooner than later and U.S. Interest Rate Futures are suggesting a 70% chance of a December hike.
Crude oil values have had their recent bullish activity curtailed slightly today as news emerges that Iraq are reluctant to join in on the self-imposed production limits being suggested by OPEC. The U.S. benchmark WTI Crude has enjoyed an almost uninterrupted rise in price since the middle of September but overnight the price has slipped back from the $51:00 level and is currently sitting at $50:71.
Trading Diary:
11:10am Not seen any trading opportunities yet so switching off my screens and off to London earlier than planned until tomorrow evening – back in front of my chart on Wednesday morning.
07:50am Nice quiet day at home today catching up on emails etc. so any trades I do have will be detailed below.
Market Update:
The U.S. market closed mainly up last night on rising oil values and better than expected earnings reports – Goldman Sachs standing out amongst the 13 companies reporting results yesterday and the Beige Book announcement was broadly in line with expectations so there’s no real ‘new news’ regarding the Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates at some stage this year although betting is still concentrated on December.
Crude oil values rose well yesterday after the weekly U.S. Crude Inventories figures showed a surprising draw of over 5 million barrels as we go into the high-demand winter season. WTI Crude futures rose just over 2.5% during Wednesday’s session to close at $51:60 although there has been some consolidation and profit-taking overnight and the price is currently sitting at $51:39.
Asian markets overnight were generally bullish after the positive U.S. close but European markets are mixed this morning as we have a fair amount of economic news out during the day including the European Central Bank’s interest rate decision and subsequent press conference.
Trading Diary:
09:30am There is the possibility of a ‘short’ trade developing on the WTI Crude chart if the price falls below $51:27 in the next 30 minutes or so.
09:55am A trendFX Strategy-3 position has just been triggered as the price fallen below the required level — my stop loss is 23 pips.
11:10am Not much happening on my charts since the WTI Crude trade triggered so I am off for a cycle ride.
12:55pm Been invited out for a game of golf shortly so I have just closed off my WTI position, it has achieved +26 pips. I will not be back home now until early evening so that’s it for trading today – and this week as I am out sailing all day tomorrow.
I hope you have a nice, relaxing weekend.
07:15am Early start for me today as I am off to London at lunchtime to meet Max – any trades I have this morning will be detailed below.
Market Update:
The overnight Asian trading session ended fairly bullish after Chinese GDP figures increased in line with general expectations. This followed on from last night’s positive end to Tuesday’s U.S. trading session which was closed up with the S&P index of top 500 companies ending +0.62% and this general optimism has given this morning’s European markets a lift with most indices starting off well.
Crude oil markets have been given a boost as well on early reports that today’s U.S. Crude Inventories will show a marked decline in stocks and this news together with OPEC’s positive thoughts that production cuts this year are entirely achievable has meant that U.S. WTI Crude has now jumped over the $51 level and if the stock situation is confirmed later this afternoon we could see a rise over $52 by the end of today’s session.
Gold is subject to some profit taking this morning after reaching a 5-day high of $1264.50 yesterday and the recent surge in the price is attributed mainly to good demand from China where the local price has been around 2% higher in the past week than the global price.
Trading Diary:
10:30am Internet back on after some issues this morning – I entered a ‘long’ position on my Gold 15min chart about 10 minutes ago – it’s a trendFX strategy-3 set-up with a 15 pip stop loss.
11:55am Getting ready to pack-up and get going for London so I have closed off my Gold position, it’s managed +48 pips.
Back in front of my charts tomorrow morning.
