Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Friday 25th November 2016

08:15am     I am planning to be around the house for most of the morning ahead of a 3-day trip away – any trades I have will be detailed below.

Market Update:

The overnight Asian trading session ended positively on the whole despite a lack of cues from the U.S. who were away from their trading screens yesterday for the Thanksgiving Bank Holiday. Despite markets in the U.S. being closed equity futures did rise steadily through Thursday but slowly lost their bullish momentum around midnight UK time and have been going sideways for the last 4 to 5 hours.  European markets have got off to a fairly good start although the FTSE-100 is fairing better than those on mainland Europe, it is up 28 points so far at 6839.

Crude oil prices have been going sideways for a few days after hitting a high around $49 at the beginning of the week but some more bearish moves are becoming evident this morning, the U.S. WTI Crude has fallen over 60 cents in the past few hours to settle at $47:44.  Gold has picked up this morning after hitting a low of $1171 yesterday, it is currently at $1190.90.

Trading Diary:

08:40am    The markets are still settling down after the European open and so far there are no obvious trading opportunities so I am off for a cycle ride in this morning’s bright sunshine. Back in an hour or two.

12:35pm   Been back a short while but have no trades to report – off out to lunch now.

14:25pm   I am now in a ‘long’ position on the S&P-500  - unusually it’s a Magic-Line pattern but it is also developing into a trendFX strategy-3 set-up as well. My stop loss is 12 pips.

14:40pm   The price on my S&P-500 chart has risen sufficiently to trigger the aforementioned trendFX trade as well  -  the more reasons you have to get into a position the better your chances are of a profit.

16:00pm   Still here watching my S&P-500 chart as my departure has been delayed – the position is in profit (just) but the markets have no great volumes today so they’re not moving much. I’ll see what happens in the next hour as I have to leave by 5pm.

17:10pm    My S&P-500 position has not progressed much in the last hour but I have to close it off now as we are off soon (hopefully)   –  it has managed +19 pips and means that I have amassed a grand total of +136 pips this week and my running total for November is +646 pips.

I will be back here in front of my charts next Tuesday after a short break away –  I hope you have a nice relaxing weekend.

Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Thursday 24th November 2016

08:40am    I am at home for most of today so any trades I take will be detailed below.

Market Update:

The relentless rise of U.S. equity markets slowed slightly yesterday, the Dow Jones index of 30 top companies closed up 59 points to another new high which was a better result than the S&P-500 which was up by just 1.78 points – this sentiment was mainly attributed to concerns over improving economic data which is pointing towards a rate hike next month. Asian markets ended mixed earlier this morning although the Nikkei-225 index was up after the Japanese bank holiday on Wednesday on Yen weakness which is good for exporters.

Crude oil markets have taken a breather after a good rise up on optimism for an OPEC production cut, but U.S. WTI Crude seems to be reluctant to rise above the $49:00 level still and UK Brent Crude is in the same position although $50 seems to be the resistance currently. Gold is continuing its fall from the $1300 level at the beginning of November – it dropped over $30 during yesterday’s session to close at $1188:05 and is further down this morning at $1187:60.

European markets are opening mixed this morning and with little economic news out through the day we could have a quiet session until the U.S. markets open in around 6-hours time.

Trading Diary:

09:10am   I had planned to be at home in front of my charts this morning but just been invited out for a game of golf  -  just a quick 9-holes so back in 2 to 3 hours.

12:50pm   While I’ve been out the markets have just drifted around, mainly due to low trading volumes caused by the U.S. bank holiday today – I am going to call it a day and close off my charts as I do not expect the situation to improve any time soon, back here tomorrow for a few hours.

Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Wednesday 23rd November 2016

08:00am   Another relaxing day here at home, catching up on emails and doing some chart watching from time to time. Any trades I have will be detailed below.

Market Update:

Main news in the markets at the moment is the record highs reached by U.S. equities – the S&P-500 index closed up last night at 2202.94 a gain of 0.22% and the narrower Dow Jones index of 30 leading companies faired slightly better at +0.35%. This optimism failed to ignite the overnight Asian trading session with most markets closing flat except for the Australian ASX-200 which ended the day at +71 points (1.31%) with financial shares leading the bullish momentum.

Today’s European session has started mixed with the London FTSE-100 up in the first few minutes of trading but German and French indices still in negative territory. Oil prices have calmed down slightly after some initial optimism over OPEC production cuts which traders now judge to be less likely – previous attempts have largely ended in disappointment so expectations are being reigned in at the moment. The WTI Crude daily chart has reached a monthly high at $49:17 but now looks as though it could stage a bearish price reversal over the next few days – today’s Crude Oil Inventories number will no doubt assist volatility.

The Gold chart is still looking fairly bearish with further down moves on the cards for the daily timeframe although there does seem to be a support area around the $1200 level and this morning the price is not too far away – currently $1211.30.

Trading Diary:

09:55am   I am now in a ‘short’ position on my German DAX-30 chart, it’s a trendFX strategy-3 pattern on the 15-min timeframe – more details soon, I am in the middle of a Skype call.

10:15am   My DAX trade has a stop loss of 53 pips which is higher than normal for a 15-min chart but it does reflect the volatility in most of the European markets this morning.  I’ve just set a target of +53 pips as I am off for a 10-mile cycle ride now.

11:40am  Just back home and seen that my DAX-30 position has reached its target of 53 pips  -  I will take screenshot in a minute to show the trade details to subscribers later. While I was out there has also been a successful (short) UTB trade on the FTSE-100 chart, quite a few customers have done well with it judging by emails received in the last 5 minutes.

12:20pm   Nothing else to see on my collection of charts at the moment so I am off for an early lunch.

13:25pm   The price on the FTSE-100 chart has just fallen sufficiently to trigger a trendFX strategy-3 trade so I am now in a ‘short’ position with a more acceptable 15 pip stop loss.

15:20pm   The FTSE-100 price has had a good run down as the U.S. trading session got going but it has hit a low at 6775 and bounced up so I am now out of my position at 6798 giving me a +29 pip profit.

Happy with my score for the day so I am switching off my screens now and will be back tomorrow morning.

Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Tuesday 22nd November 2016

07:55am    Back from a short trip away – I shall be here at home for most of today so any trades I have will be detailed below.

Market Update:

Shares in Asian ended mostly optimistic earlier this morning after initial worries over the Japanese earthquake subsided – damage does not seem as bad as first thought although there is still a tsunami warning of upto 3 metres for part of the country at the moment. This bullishness comes after U.S. equity markets closed up on Monday evening with all three major indices hitting record highs – the main driving force seemed to be energy stocks which were bullish due to rising Crude Oil prices.

U.S. WTI Crude Oil rose $1.72 during yesterday’s session to close at $48:31 and is around the same level this morning after almost touching $49 in the overnight Asian session. This optimism is mainly down to hopes that a production cut will be agreed by OPEC members before the end of this month and although previous attempts have ended in disappointment, traders seem ready to raise hopes this time.

Gold was down around the important $1200 level last week so a bounce upwards was inevitable but unusually this price surge has been supported by physical buying (in Asia) rather than traders just bargain hunting on technical movements. It had another positive session yesterday where it rose $6:10 to close at $1213:90 and is up further after the overnight Asian session – currently sitting at $1216:45

Trading Diary:

09:00am    The European session is still getting underway and there is not much excitement on my collection of favourite charts* so I am off for a 10-mile cycle ride now.

* My favourite 6 charts — S&P-500, FTSE-100, Dax-30, Gold, Brent Crude, WTI Crude.

12:55pm   It has been quite a quiet morning with regard to trading opportunities but I am now in a ‘short’ trendFX position on my U.S. WTI Crude Oil chart – it’s a strategy-3 pattern with a 35 pip stop loss, slightly higher than normal reflecting the fair amount of volatility at the moment.

13:15pm   Out for lunch now – markets are still quite volatile for some reason but I’m keeping my stop loss as it is and setting a target of +35 pips. There has  been a few other trendFX  opportunities but the charts involved had far too many ‘gaps’ between the candles – I will send out a chart screenshot later illustrating this point to my subscribers.

 14:30pm   Just got back from lunch and seen that my trendFX WTI Crude position has hit its target of +35 pips.  I have taken a screenshot of the chart showing entry/exit details which will be sent out later with my ‘Nick’s Trades’ daily email.

15:40pm    Helping neighbour clear fallen oak tree in his garden so no more chart watching for me today.   Back tomorrow morning…

Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Friday 18th November 2016

08:55am  I am here at home in the study this morning doing some chart watching plus catching up on Skype calls/emails so any trades I have before lunchtime will be detailed below.

Market Update:

Uncertainty over the timing for the next U.S. interest rate hike was more or less dashed yesterday as Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen gave her strongest hint yet that there will be rise in December. This should be good news generally for markets across the world as it is signaling that the largest global economy is seeing strength and stability returning although the overnight Asian trading session ended mixed although Japan’s Nikkei-225 index was up due mainly to large Japanese exporters reacting to the Trump/Abe meeting.

In Europe, equity markets are generally downbeat this morning despite a fairly positive end to trading in the U.S. last night and the UK FTSE-100 is continuing its bearish move which began over a month ago from its high of 7133 – currently sitting at 6750.  Oil markets are stable if slightly bearish, WTI Crude had another negative day on Thursday, losing just 45 cents to close at $44:90 and it is still around that level now ($44:80)

Trading Diary:

09:40am    All quiet on my charts so I am off for a cycle ride for an hour or so.

11:30am   Just waiting for a possible ‘long’ trade on my WTI Crude chart if the price rises above $45:39 in the next 30 minutes or so.

11:45am   Now in above position, it’s trendFX strategy-3 pattern with a 27 pip stop loss.

12:50pm   Trade still running – off out to lunch and leaving stop loss as it is, check when I get back.

15:30pm   Just got back from an extended lunch and seen that my WTI Crude position has been stopped out at -27 pips.

16:05pm    Not much happening on my collection of favourite chart so I’m finishing for the week and turning the screens off now – I shall be back trading next Tuesday. I hope you have a nice relaxing weekend.

Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Thursday 17th November 2016

07:40am   Planning a quiet day here in the study watching charts and catching up on emails and Skype calls – any trades I have will be detailed below.

Market Update:

U.S. markets took a breather yesterday after the post-election rise came to an end, the Dow Jones 30 index closed down 55 points at 18,868 (-0.29%) and the wider S&P-500 also down slightly (-0.16%) and there does seem to be a reluctance for this index to move above the 2185 level at the moment.  This sentiment also affected the overnight Asian market where the main equity indices ended flat with oil prices also weighing on enthusiasm and European equities are also opening lower if futures prices are a gauge. The German DAX-30 is still coming up against a small resistance at 10,800 – it has reversed back from this level this week and has spent quite a few months attempting to rise above it to no avail.

As mentioned, oil prices are under pressure once again after higher than expected U.S. Crude Inventories that were announced yesterday, WTI Crude fell around 73 cents to close last night at $45:02 although some buying during the Asian session has lifted that price to $45:40. Gold has been stuck in a small channel this week between $1211 and $1233 after sharp falls last week as equity markets rose – the weekly chart shows a fairly solid support area around $1210 so we could see further moves up soon.

Trading Diary:

09:05am    Not much occurring on my selection of favourite charts so I am going to take this opportunity to get some exercise in the form of a cycle ride for an hour or so.

10:35am   Back now and I’ve just entered a ‘long’ position on my WTI Crude 30 minute chart – it’s a trendFX  strategy-3 set-up and my stop loss is just 15 pips and I managed to get in lower that the actual trigger level.

12:05pm    Happy with the progress of my WTI position so I am now out of the trade at +41 pips. There is not much else to report on my favourite charts at the moment.

13:10pm    Off to lunch now, no opportunities at present.

14:40pm   Back home now and just got into a ‘long’ position on my German Dax-30 chart. It’s on the 1-hr timeframe and it is a UTB price reversal pattern with a reasonable 23 pip stop loss.

16:50pm    The Dax price has hit the significant 10700 level a couple of times in the past 10 minutes so I am now out of my position,  it has managed +52 pips so giving me +93 pips for the day.  Back in front of my charts in the morning for a few hours.

Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Wednesday 16th November 2016

09:25am   Slightly later start to my trading day as I’ve got the builders in at the moment – any trades I do have will be detailed below.

Market Update:

While I’ve been away from my screens, global equity markets have been on the whole quite bullish with Asian stocks closing up earlier this morning after an encouraging session yesterday in the U.S.  The initial worries last week over the Trump presidential win seems to have turned to considered optimism with U.S. equity markets still around recent highs – the S&P-500 had another bullish day on Tuesday and it finished up 16 points (+0.75%).   This morning’s European trading session has not followed this bullish sentiment and most markets are trading slightly down in the last hour.

Oil has suffered large price falls in the past month but its fortune was reversed on Monday when WTI Crude staged a bullish reversal from the $43 minor support level on hopes that OPEC are close to an agreement amongst members for a production cut. This morning’s daily chart shows a slight decline as early reports show that U.S. stocks have climbed over the past week, we will get confirmation later today when U.S. Crude Oil Inventories are released.

Trading Diary:

10:40am   Just entered a ‘short’ position on my WTI Crude Oil chart – it’s a trendFX strategy-1 pattern and my stop loss is 20 pips, about average for the 15min timeframe.

12:00 midday   Off to lunch soon after I’ve helped the builders out briefly so I have just closed off my WTI Crude position – the price has just hit the $45:00 level and bounced up slightly so I am out at $45:03 giving me a profit of +32 pips.

16:05pm    Been back for an hour or so but no opportunities on my collection of favourite charts so I am calling it day and returning to the screens tomorrow morning.

Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Friday 11th November 2016

07:05am    Early start for me today as I am only in front of my screens this morning ahead of a 4-day trip away – back trading next Wednesday. Any trades I have this morning will be reported below.

Market Update:

The bullish sentiment in the markets following Trump’s election victory is carrying on – the U.S. Dow Jones 30 index hit a new intra-day high at 18,874 and then closed up at 18,808 with banks leading the rise. The wider S&P-500 did not fair as well and oscillated between gains and losses and then eventually closed just 4 points up and the overnight Asian trading session also displayed mixed sentiment although the Australian ASX-200 did close up more than 2% as it heavily weighted towards financials. The worst performer in the region was the Hang Seng Index that ended down 1.42% even though the other main Chinese index (Shanghai Composite) gained 0.78%through the session.

European markets have opened mainly flat and are still looking for some direction even though U.S. equity futures are up slightly.  Gold is still retreating from the $1305 resistance level that it touched last week and investors seem to be shunning safe-haven investments and piling into equities although we could see a cooling of this sentiment as traders adjust their positions ahead of the weekend break.

Trading Diary:

08:50am    Nothing much happening on my collection of favourite charts so I am off for an hour’s  cycle ride.

13:20pm    It’s been a fairly quiet morning on the markets as far as opportunities are concerned although I am now in ‘short’ position on my Brent Crude 15min chart.  It’s a trendFX  strategy-1 pattern and my stop loss is just 15 pips.

14:25pm   I am preparing for my short break away soon so I have closed off my Brent position as it’s reached an acceptable +29 pips.  Back in front of my charts next Wednesday, I hope you have a nice weekend break.

This Week’s Pip Total = 264 pips

This Month’s Pip Total = 412 pips

Trading Dairy & Market Update ~ Thursday 10th November 2016

08:20am  Quiet day at home catching up on emails and doing some chart watching – plus I also have a 30-mile cycle ride this afternoon with some fellow traders.

Market Update:

Despite protests across America against Trump’s election victory last night, financial markets are surging after the initial falls yesterday morning. The S&P-500 ended the day up over 1% even though it plunged to a 4-month low at once stage during the overnight Asian trading session – the narrower Dow Jones 30 index also closed even higher (+1.4%)  This bullish sentiment was carried over to today’s early morning Asian session where most indices ended positively with Australia’s ASX-200 index leading the pack at +3.2% and Europe this morning is carrying on the trend with all major bourses also looking bullish. Markets (and traders) do not like uncertainty and this has contributed to recent falls and even thought the result was not expected, the uncertainty has ended and we can all get back to ‘work’ as normal now.

The crude oil market had a small blip yesterday as U.S. oil stocks rose by 2.4 million barrels but this did not last long and WTI Crude ended the day 51 cents up at $45:30 with UK Brent Crude also up by a similiar amount. Gold has had a rollercoaster ride during the run-up to election day with many investors buying in as a hedge and today it’s moving up towards the significant support/resistance level at $1300 (currently $1287:90)

Trading Diary:

09:55am   There are possible ‘long’ trendFX trades lining up on my FTSE-100 and Dax-30 charts –  just watching to see what happens after 10am.

10:10am  Now in a ‘long’ position on my Dax-30 15min chart, it’s a trendFX strategy-1 pattern with a 23 pip stop loss.

10:35am   Out for an hour doing some shopping with Head Office, just leaving stop loss as it is on the Dax-30 position with the target open.

12:30pm   Just seen that my Dax-30 position has now been stopped out at -23 pips.

14:05pm   Just entered a ‘short’ trendFX Strategy-3 position on my Brent Crude chart, the stop loss is 28 pips.  I am off out soon on a long cycle ride with some buddies so I have set the target at +28 pips.

17:20pm   Just got home and seen that my Brent Crude trade ended up at +28 pips so with my earlier loss I’ve come out at +5 pips overall.

Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Wednesday 9th November 2016

08:10am   I shall be at home for most of the day watching the markets and the reaction to this morning’s U.S. election result – any trades I do have will be reported below.

Market Update:

Markets are dominated of course by the Trump victory in the U.S. election and the overnight volatility may calm down slightly as the day goes on – Asian markets reacted first as clues to a surprise result started emerging with the Japanese Nikkei 225 index falling by over 5% at one stage and the Hang Seng was not far behind. European markets are opening this morning with similiar moves although initial losses are recovering slightly with the FTSE-1oo in London opening at 6621 and is now sitting at 6645 with further rises on the cards in the next hour.

U.S. futures are also down understandably and the S&P-500 is looking to open later around 2080 against a close last night at 2139 so they are recovering slightly – at one stage earlier this morning the index was down at 2034. Safe haven investments have done well amidst the turmoil, the USD/JPY forex pair touched the 101.10 level briefly before recovering and Gold has rallied as high as $1337 but has fallen back to $1303 currently.  It is going to be an interesting day’s trading……

Trading Diary:

09:35am   I hadn’t expected to see any of my trading system patterns for a while as the markets settle down from the overnight volatility but the U.S. WTI Crude 15min chart has just produced a trendFX strategy-3 opportunity.  A price rise above the $44:57 level has just triggered the trade and I am now in ‘long’ position with a 40 pip stop loss – slightly higher than normal but it does reflect the continuing volatility in the markets at the moment.

11:10am  Just entered a ‘short’ UTB position on my S&P-500 chart – the market is quite volatile so not sure how it’ll fair. Just looking at the WTI trade now as well.

11:15am   The bullish momentum on the WTI Crude chart is slowing slightly and the price has reversed from the $45:30 recent resistance line so I am now out of my trade – the score was +42 pips.  My S&P-500 position has a 99 pip stop loss, again indicative of the extreme volatility in U.S. equity markets.

11:35am   The price on the S&P-500 has fallen quite quickly but has now began to climb so I am now out of that position as well.  I have covered just over my stop loss – the position has given me +101 pips.

Off out now for a cycle ride in the rain and then some lunch and I am not too worried about having any more trades today as I’m happy with the score so far, so I will be back in front of my chart tomorrow morning.