07:55am   Relaxing day at home ahead for me so any trades I find will be reported below although we could experience quiet markets as we wait for the Fed’s interest rate announcement.

Market Update:

As mentioned above, in just over 11-hours time the U.S. Federal Reserve will be announcing their interest rate decision – it is currently at 0.50% and expectation is for a 0.25% rise with further small increases through 2017.  As usually occurs, this expected rise is largely priced into the market so if you look at the U.S. S&P-500 and the level it has reached in the past few weeks it would seem that traders are looking forward to the Fed eventually moving rates higher as their optimism regarding the U.S. economy grows.  Yesterday’s trading session saw the Dow Jones 30 index close at another record high at close to 19,800 after touching 19,955 in mid session and it is still holding above the 19,000 level this morning in futures trading – watch for a bearish reaction though as it hits the 20,000 level. There will also be trading opportunities on the S&P-500 index when the Dow touches this important milestone.

The overnight Asian trading session finished mixed as traders are also waiting for Janet Yellen’s decision later today and this sentiment has spilled over to the European open where most indices are slightly down. Crude oil markets are also experiencing a squeeze at the moment as U.S. crude oil inventories are expected to show a small rise in the stock situation this week, we will get confirmation at 16:30pm European time – WTI Crude closed last night at $52.44, down from the week’s high of $54.48.

Trading Diary:

08:40am   Unsurprisingly there is nothing much happening on my group of favourite charts so I am off for a cycle ride in the sunshine.

10:10am   Just got back and spotted a ‘short’ trade opportunity on my Brent Crude 1-hr chart – it’s a Master-The-Trend strategy-A pattern and I am now in the trade with a 21 pip stop loss.  As we have the U.S. Crude Oil Inventories later today this could be a fairly risky move but the stop loss is quite low so we will see how it develops.

11:30am     I am envisaging a fairly volatile few hours coming up in the Crude Oil market so I have come out of my position with a small +29 pip profit.

12:50pm     Traders lunch at The Lord Nelson apparently..

14:25pm     This is not a trade that I would suggest new traders contemplate as we are so close to the Crude Oil Inventories announcement but I have just got into a ‘short’ trade on the WTI Crude chart – more details soon.

14:40pm     The position I mentioned above is a Master-The-Trend Strategy-A pattern on the 15-min chart with a 20 pip stop loss and I do not expect it to last that long.

15:05pm     Out of above position before “the” announcement in 25-mins, it has given me +20 pips.

15:45pm     Just had a final look at my charts and there’s nothing to get excited about in the run-up to the Federal Reserve’s statement in a few hours so I am calling it a day and will be back here at my desk tomorrow morning for my last trading day of the week.

07:40am    Back after a short break so will be in front of my charts this morning before a quick trip to London this afternoon. If I have any trades, details will be below.

Market Update:

Markets are beginning to quiet down ahead of tomorrow’s U.S. interest rate decision – the Federal Reserve are widely expected to start raising their minimum lending rate by 0.25% to begin with, signaling that the days of ultra-low rates are at an end.  The overnight Asian trading session was mixed overall although Chinese equities managed to close positively after favourable economic numbers were released showing a better than expected  retail sales which were up 10.8% year-on-year plus encouraging factory output and steel exports.

The other main news is the spike in crude oil prices which has been caused by a number of non-OPEC countries now agreeing to a production cut to fall in line with OPEC member’s resolution on limiting output. This has caused WTI Crude to jump to $52.65 currently from last week’s average of around $50 although it was as high as $54.49 early yesterday morning and the European benchmark Brent Crude is currently at $55.53.

Gold is still in the doldrums, having fallen through the significant $1200 level towards the end of November – it’s currently trading around the $1160 mark although an adverse reaction to the Fed’s rate decision tomorrow could see a jump back towards the $1180-$1200 range.

Trading Diary:

08:20am     Just entered a couple of positions, firstly a ‘long’ trade using strategy-B from the new Master-The-Trend manual, it’s on the S&P-500 15 minute chart and my stop loss is 27 pips and also a ‘short’ trade on my Gold 15 minute trade (same strategy) with a 25 pip stop loss.

09:25am   I am now also in another Master-The-Trend position, this time it is a ‘long’ trade on my German DAX-30 chart with a 21 pip stop loss (this one also strategy-B)

11:05am   Just come out of the S&P-500 trade with a +28 pip profit.

11:15am   I am now out of my DAX-30 position as well now, it has come out at +42 pips.

12.00pm    I am now out of my last position of the morning, the strategy-B trade on my Gold chart. It has just got to +25 pips (again) so I thought it best to close it as I am off out soon and all in all my efforts today have given me +95 pips.

I will be back home around 7pm hopefully and I will send out full details then of the new Master-The-Trend system so you can see how today’s trades all came out profitably.  There will also be chart screenshots of all three trades in my daily  ‘Nick’s Trades’  email.

09:25am   Relaxed start to my Friday and no trading for today as I’m helping the ‘resident’ builders finish up. Fairly happy with my score this week, I’ve been in front of my charts for 3-days and managed 5 trades, 4 winners and 1 loser and a total of +122 pips since Tuesday.

Back in front of my charts next Tuesday – hope you have a nice, relaxing weekend break.

Market Update:

Records are being broken everywhere this week, in the U.S. the Dow Jones 30 index closed at another record high at 19,614 (+65.19) and it still looks likely that the 20,000 level will be broached before we see in the new year. Overnight, the Japanese Nikkei-225 index also reached a new high at 18,996 and other Asian indices were generally bullish as well although the European markets this morning are looking mixed despite the fairly good news yesterday from the European Central Bank – Mario Draghi announced he was keeping the record low interest rate and keeping the bond buying programme alive for most next year. This is seen as a possible preventative measure to help the Italian banking problem and also any fall-out from Brexit as negotiations become more intense by the middle of 2017.

Crude Oil markets are experiencing a small resurgence on the past day or so and U.S. WTI Crude is once again heading towards the resistance level at $52.00 – it closed up $1.07 at $50.93 last night and is now slightly higher $51:12.

07:50am   At home today doing odd bits of DIY, catching up on emails and finishing off the new system manual – but also some chart watching inbetween so any trades I take will be detailed below.

Market Update:

Equity markets are very bullish at the moment, U.S. indices had another record day on Wednesday and the overnight Asian session followed on in the same vein with the Japanese Nikkei-225 coming out as the best performer at +1.45% and rising to its highest level in the past 11 months despite the high value of the Yen.  Hopes that the European Central Bank will announce some sort of stimulus at its meeting today is partly fuelling the optimism in the markets and today is also the last chance for a rate move this year, ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision next Wednesday.

Ahead of the ECB announcement in a few hours, most European bourses have opened in negative territory (except for the MIB-30 as Italy has a Bank Holiday) and will possibly trade sideways until we know what’s in President Mario Draghi speech – the consensus seems to be that interest rates will be help at 0%.

The bearish momentum that Gold has endured since the summer is once again slowing as investors ‘bargain-hunt’ around the $1160/$1170 level, it had a fairly bullish session yesterday and closed up +$4.60 last night at $1174 and is around the same level at the moment.

Trading Diary:

08:35am    There is the possibility of a UTB price reversal pattern forming on my FTSE-100 chart in the next 15 minutes so I will keep you informed of developments, not much else to see on my favourite charts.

08:50am   I am now in a ‘long’ UTB position on the FTSE-100, my stop loss is 14 pips.

09:15am   Well that was a quick trade ! Stopped out at -14 pips.

09:30am    Nothing else on my charts at the moment and some fresh air/exercise is required so cycle time for me..

10:40am   Just entered a ‘long’ trendFX strategy-3 position on my WTI Crude Oil chart (15-min) and my stop loss is 20 pips.

11:25am   Playing it safe with this latest trade after my loss earlier, I have come out of the position at + 20 pips a few minutes ago as the price has touched a small resistance level.

12:30pm    Lunch out now and then an unexpected game of golf this afternoon.  No further trades to report.

08:50am   Here at home again today working on my new trading system manuals and doing some chart watching from time to time so any trades I have will be reported in my Trading Diary below.

Market Update:

Equity markets in Europe and U.S. futures are all looking quite positive this morning as the overnight Asian trading session also closed mainly up. Trump’s post election rally is still in full swing. The Dow Jones 30 index closed at another record last night, up over 35 points at 19,251.78 and many commentators are now looking at the index getting very close to the 20,000 level before the end of this year. The S&P-500 also had a bullish close, up 7.15 points at 2212 and seems to be establishing some support around the 2200 level.

The crude oil market has been consolidating this week after WTI Crude reached a high of $52.38 early in Monday’s session, looking at the 4-hr chart does give the impression that price is going to stay above the $50 level and it looks to be moving back up today from its current position at $50.88. Ther eis some optimism that non-OPEC countries are going to agree to production cuts in the new year at meetings this weekend.

Gold is continuing its fall from the August highs of $1375 and closed last night at $1169.60 although the bearish momentum does seem to be waning slightly and the price is up around the $1171.10 level this morning but the price action on the 4-hr chart does suggest some further moves down – probably on the cards if equity markets continue up today.

Trading Diary:

09:15am   Going for cycle ride, nothing to see on my charts at the moment.

11:40am   Just entered a ‘long’ position on my Gold 15-min chart, it’s a trendFX strategy-1 pattern with a 13 pip stop loss.

13:00pm   My Gold position is still in profit so I will keep it running but there is also a possible ‘short’ opportunity on my S&P-500 chart although it is very close to the U.S. trading session open – so not a good idea for new traders if it does trigger.

13:10pm   I am now also in the aforementioned S&P-500 position now, it’s a trendFX strategy-3 set-up with a 15 pip stop loss.  I am watching the charts fairly carefully as the prices are all becoming volatile, quite normal in the run-up to the U.S. trading session open.

13:30pm   Now out of the S&P-500 position as the price is gapping all over the place, I ended up with a +16 pip profit. The Gold chart has calmed down slightly and price action is more predictable so I shall stay with it for a while.

14:20pm   The price has jumped up considerably in the past 20 minutes and given my position a +63 pip profit so I am now out of the trade.  Time for a late lunch at the Lord Nelson.

15:50pm  Back home but nothing on my charts currently so I am calling it a day as far as trading is concerned.  Back tomorrow morning

trendFX system manual

Since 2009, week in week out month after month my collection of trendFX trading set-ups have proven to be extremely reliable, very profitable and without a doubt have been my most successful  trading strategies ever.

Having taken over 1,000 trades with this system, it has a hit rate of around 90% and if you scroll back through this trading diary you can see all the winners yourself.

After all those trades I saw patterns emerging but I also designed ways of making the system better and that is the idea behind this update. And I am re-naming it to fit alongside my other systems, so it will now be called Master-The-Trend.

The updated manual will show how I have narrowed down just one type of candlestick pattern (from around 10) that works better than the rest and how to use it with the original trendFX set-ups and patterns and I have reduced the number of trading strategies from four down to three to make it more simple for new traders who are still learning to trade the markets.

I have also added my own unique indicator, the MMOSc, to one of the set-ups to give you more trading opportunities

There are many more chart examples now in the manual to help with learning and if you already have the original trendFX trading system manual, you will be receiving this new Master-The-Trend manual before the end of the week. If you’ve  not yet traded the trendFX system, you will have the chance to purchase the new updated version at a special price over the next week or so – watch out for email announcements.

Master-The-Trend ProEXPERT

As mentioned above, I have taken over 1,000 trades with the trendFX  set-ups and during that time I could not help but notice certain additional patterns and anomalies that when modified slightly gave better trade results and more importantly, MORE PIPS.

To give you an idea – there is a certain price reaction on strategy-3 that makes the set-up work better and limits losing trades.  Also when you are already in a trade, I can give you a way of seeing if the price will carry on in the direction you want or suddenly reverse and lose you valuable profit.

Imagine how useful that is for ANY of your trading ?  Not just this system but any strategy you trade.

And on another set-up I will show how the addition of one indicator makes both long and short trades more reliable, so you can trade with more confidence.

Also, if you want to know which way the markets are going first thing in the morning, I have a way of getting that information to you so you’re ready to trade with more knowledge that most home-based traders.

There’s  an insight from a trader friend who started trading the trendFX strategies around 4-years ago and found a way  that new traders could increase their pip totals without increasing their risk and this plus much more is in the Master-The-Trend Pro-EXPERT manual that will be available at the same time as the updated manual.

Exact launch date and information on prices will be announced in the next few days so keep an eye on this Trading Diary and your inbox.

08:50am  Back home after a short trip away so I will be here in the study for most of the day catching up on emails and doing some chart watching – I am also putting the finishing touches to the updated trendFX manual, my most successful set of trading strategies over the last 7 years, more news later today.

Market Update:

Main news in the markets is the ongoing Italian situation that was triggered by Sunday’s referendum and their main MIB-30 index closed around 30 points down yesterday but is mainly flat this morning ahead of the European Central Bank meeting on Thursday – expectations are that Mario Draghi, the president of the ECB will announce an extension to his bond buying programme.  U.S. equities were unchallenged by troubles in Europe yesterday though and the Dow Jones 30 closed at 19,216 another record high for the index although the wider S&P-500 is still lagging slightly behind and failing to get upto the high of 2214.50 that it managed last week.

Initial concerns amongst Asian bourses over the Italian referendum result at the weekend has subsided this morning with most equity markets up today on news that the Reserve Bank of Australia has kept its base lending rate at 1.5% which is seen as positive by traders. The higher Euro overnight also helped with general optimism as it is taken as a sign that currency traders are not that concerned with any fall-out from a possible banking problem in Italy.

Crude oil markets hit a high yesterday but are now retreating as it becomes clear that most oil producing countries have increased their daily output ahead of the self-imposed production cut on January – this should keep price rises at bay for a while and hopes of a $60 per barrel level fade for the next few months.

Trading Diary:

09:25am  As my favourite charts are fairly quiet at the moment, I am going to take this opportunity to go for a cycle ride – the route I am taking today is a 13 mile round-trip so back in just over an hour

11:40am   Just entered a ‘short’ trade on my WTI Crude chart – more details soon, on a Skype call at the moment.

11:50am   My WTI Crude Oil position was triggered by a UTB price-reversal pattern on the 15-min chart. It has a 16 pip stop loss.   Just been reminded I am going to help a neighbour pick-up his new car at 1-pm so the trade may be a short one if it’s in profit by the time I leave.

12:35pm   The WTI Crude price has come down to around the $51:00 level so I am happy with my profit, I am out of the position now with +37 pips.  I will be back around 4pm if all goes to plan.

16:20pm   Been back a short while and there are no upcoming trade opportunities on my favourite charts so I shall switch off my screens and finish trading for the day.  Back tomorrow morning.

07:55am   No trading for me as it is Non Farm Payrolls day once again – back in front of my charts next Tuesday after a long weekend away.

Market Update:

U.S. markets ended Thursday’s session mixed with the Dow Jones 30 up slightly but the wider S&P-500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq both ended the day in negative territory as the post-election Trump rally starts to die down. U.S. futures are trading sideways at the moment ahead of the monthly jobs report in just over 5-hours time, the expectation is for a slight rise in jobs and if this does happen the case for a December rate rise by the Federal Reserve becomes even more compelling.

Europe is also in the spotlight with the Italian referendum on constitutional reform due this weekend where the ‘No’ campaign seem to have a slight lead in the polls. Prime Minister Renzi has staked his political future on the outcome and this is just one more example of unease within the EU, kicked off by the UK’s Brexit vote. If Renzi does lose the vote and resigns there are reasons too long to go into here that would put the Italian banking sector into further crisis so I am watching Sunday’s results with interest.

The other big market news this week has been OPEC’s meeting on the subject of wide-ranging production cuts and so far the markets have reacted well, U.S. WTI Crude has risen towards its next resistance level at $52:00 – currently sitting at $51:01 – it has so far enjoyed its biggest weekly rise since 2013 although there are signs of some profit taking during the overnight Asian trading session after it a high of $51.77.

07:30am   Relatively early start for me today as I am off to London early this afternoon until tomorrow night – but I will be doing some chart watching this morning so any trades I have will be reported below.

My next Market Update will be on Friday when I will also have news regarding my updated trendFX system manual – probably my most successful trading strategy.

Market Update:

U.S. equity markets closed up yesterday as healthcare and property companies gained the most even though oil prices were under pressure ahead of today’s OPEC meeting.  There is some unease as to how the meeting and on the back of these concerns WTI Crude closed down 3.9% at $45.23 after hitting a small support level at $44.75 – there has been some buying in the past few hours though and the price is up at $45.68.

The overnight Asian trading session ended mixed again as traders sit on their hands ahead of the aforementioned OPEC meeting and European equities are muted this morning before ECB president Mario Draghi speaks at lunchtime outlining future monetary policy. Gold has been below the significant $1200 for a week now and a price target of $1170 looks likely by the end of the week but this move will depend on whether equity markets rise further and that’s dependent on oil prices  -  markets are very interesting……

Trading Diary:

08:40am   I had a signal a short while ago from my trendFX system that the price on the Brent Crude chart was starting a strong trend and about to go higher so I am now in a ‘long’ position with a 59 pip stop loss. This is more than normal risk for the 30 minute chart that I am working on at the moment but if it concerns you – just halve or quarter your normal position size.  It is a strategy-3 pattern from the trendFX  manual.

09:15am   Unusually I am keeping a close eye on my position as there will be announcements during the day with regard to the OPEC meeting and they will affect the price, sometimes dramatically. At the moment the price has risen well, my position is at +88 pips so I have just brought my stop loss upto break-even to guard against shock movements.

09:30am   Going out for a cycle ride with neighbours so I have brought my stop loss upto +59 pips just in case of ‘rapid’ price movements.

11:10am   Back home now and my Brent Crude position has shot up – I am happy with the score so I closed the trade off a few minutes ago at +221 pips and I will send out a chart screenshot to all subscribers in a moment.

I am off to London soon so no more chart watching for me today and as I am away tomorrow and it is Non Farm Payrolls on Friday, that’s it for trading this week (and this month). I will however have some news tomorrow evening regarding my updated trendFX system manual that will be released within the next week – watch out for an email.

My total profit for November has come in at +938 pips, mostly from the trendFX patterns.

09:15am   Back home after a short break away so I shall be here in the study for most of the day catching up on emails and Skype calls plus doing some chart watching from time to time.

Market Update:

The U.S. equity rally that began when Trump was elected president is now showing signs of slowing with the S&P-500 index ending Monday’s trading session around 0.50% down and has retreated back from the high at 2214 – this level could become a short-term resistance area although futures prices are up in the past few hours.  The overnight Asian session closed mainly down except for the Shanghai Composite which managed to post a small 0.2% rise at the close.

The general optimism over oil values seems to be slowing slightly, traders initially believed that OPEC will agree to a production cut and this sent crude prices higher but as always, when you drill down and think the situation through, another scenario becomes apparent… If OPEC members cut production all that will happen is that other oil producing countries who have been excluded from membership will simply increase their own output so the global over-supply will not change in the long run. So once prices fall, OPEC members will suffer even further so they will have to up production and the price will fall even further.

Markets in Europe are muted this morning on worries regarding this Sunday’s Italian referendum – if Prime Minister Renzi loses the vote he has threatened to resign and this could lead to the rise of the Five Star Movement who favour leaving the Euro. This outcome then leads to other countries within the EU possibly holding referendums too – interesting times…….

Trading Diary:

09:55am  Nothing to see on my collection of favourite charts so far this morning so I am off for a ‘bracing’ cycle ride.

12:25pm   In a ‘short’ position on my WTI Crude chart — more details soon, have had visitors just turned up.

13:00pm   My WTI trade is a trendFX strategy-3 set-up with a higher the normal 46 pip stop loss, this is due to pattern coming up on the one hour timeframe. The position is currently sitting at +29 pips.

13:55pm    The oil market is becoming quite volatile and as my position had reached +71 pips I came out of the trade a couple of minutes ago.

14:45pm   No other opportunities at the moment so I am closing off my charts and finishing my trading for the day as I am more than happy with my score so far  - back here tomorrow for the last trading day of the month.