Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Thursday 11th May 2017

08:35am  No trading for me today as I am off on a ‘chaps day-out’ but should be back in front of my screens tomorrow.

Market Update:

Most European equity markets closed up yesterday on optimism for the new pro-EU French government and encouraging French industrial production although the sacking of FBI chief did cause some ripples in U.S. equity markets later in the day.  The main indices in the U.S. ended the day mixed  with the S&P-500 closing up 2.71 points and the Dow Jones 30 closed marginally (-32.67) and the overnight futures market is showing further falls.

Wednesday’s Asian trading session is coming to a close and most markets are showing gains after oil prices rose during the latter part of yesterday, Brent Crude rose just over 3% to finish at $50.20 per barrel after a surprise fall of 5.2 million barrels in the U.S. inventories and is higher this morning at $50.65.

Gold had yet another negative day, falling below the significant $1220 level as equities pushed slightly higher but overnight it has returned back up and is sitting at $1221.05 now so we could see further (small) rises today. Economic news out today includes a rate announcement from the Bank Of England, UK manufacturing data and U.S. unemployment claims.

Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Wednesday 10th May 2017

08:20am  I am planning to be at home for most of the day so any trades I have will be reported below.

Market Update:

Yesterday’s European equity markets closed mainly up after a stabilisation in commodity prices and are reaching highs not seen since last summer. The U.S. markets were initially bullish following on from European optimism but reports of a new nuclear test in North Korea dampened enthusiasm and the S&P-500 index closed down 0.10% (-2.46) at 2396.92 after touching the 2400 resistance level earlier in the session.

The overnight Asian trading session closed a short while ago with most markets showing a slight rise with only the Shanghai Composite coming in with a loss at -0.09% despite growing concerns in North Korea and the emerging story in the U.S. of President Trump firing the head of the FBI.  Gold had another negative day on Tuesday and closed the session at $1220.90 after falling as low as $1214.10 and we should see a small move upto the 200-day moving average over the next few days.

Crude oil markets encountered another negative day with U.S. WTI Crude falling 0.55% to $48.79 but prices have bounced up slightly this morning after Saudi Arabia says it will be cutting supplies to Asia in another attempt to stem the price falls which are caused mainly by U.S. shale production. Today’s U.S. inventory number will confirm just how much the country is pumping out amid a global oil glut – watch out for some volatility in WTI and Brent Crude charts later.

Trading Diary:

08:50am     The DAX-30 is quite volatile this morning but there is a UTB pattern emerging very slowly so there could be a possible (short) trade coming up.

09:05am    I am now in a ‘short’ position on my German DAX-30 15min chart, it’s a UTB Price-Reversal pattern and my stop loss is 10 pips.  Not sure how long I will be in the trade as the chart is still quite volatile.

09:20am   The volatility is remaining and I am happy with a quick profit so I am now out of my DAX-30 position with a 15 pip profit.

12:45pm    Just entered a ‘short’ position on my Gold 15min chart, it’s another UTB Price-Reversal pattern and I have an 18 pip stop loss.

13:40pm     Another fairly quick trade, the U.S. markets are opening and with that comes some sharp moves so I am now out of my Gold position with a small +22 pip profit.  I have just been invited out shortly for a game of golf in the sunshine so I am shutting off my screens for the day.

Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Tuesday 9th May 2017

08:00am   I am back at home now for the rest of the week so will be catching up on emails and doing some chart watching today and any trades I have will be detailed below throughout the day.

Market Update:

European markets closed mixed yesterday after Sunday’s French election results, the Macron win was largely priced into equities so no large moves were expected and the French CAC-40 index closed 49 points lower at 5383 after a promising start. The German DAX-30 was also lower by the close (-155 points) although the UK FTSE-100 ended the day flat, losing just 3 points and is not much higher this morning.

The U.S. markets ended the day very slightly ahead although the Nasdaq and S&P-500 did reach record intraday highs earlier in the session, although the S&P index is still struggling to get over the 2400 level for any length of time. The biggest share move in the U.S. was Apple which rose 2.5% and as a result lifted it’s market capitalisation to over $800 billion for the first time. Asian markets had a relatively quiet session after Monday’s gains with the South Korean elections and Australian budget in trader’s minds today.

Crude oil is also in focus as the price of UK Brent Crude falling 0.8% to $48.69 yesterday and OPEC hurriedly issuing a statement regarding further production cuts that many traders see as a panic move after last week’s large price falls. The news has had limited effect and Brent is trading just over $49 this morning but the daily chart is still looking overbought with resistance around its 20-day moving average – I will send out a chart this morning to subscribers illustrating a possible future move.

Trading Diary:

09:55am    Just entered a ‘long’position on my German DAX-30 chart.  More details later, I am off for a cycle ride with some neighbours.

11:15am     Back home now and I can see the DAX-30 position is still ok and currently in profit by +17 pips. It’s a Master-The-Trend Strategy-B pattern on the 30-min timeframe with a 38 pip stop loss.

11:40am    Now also in a ‘long’ position on my S&P-500 15-min chart.  It is a Master-The-Trend Strategy-A set-up with an 8 pip stop loss.  Not sure how long this trade will last as the volumes are very low on this index today so I will keep a close eye on it – which is not something I will normally do.

12:15pm     Now out of my DAX-30 position with a +41 pip profit.  I am still in the S&P trade but I remain vigilant as the chart is still quite ‘jumpy’

13:35pm    Due to the way the U.S. markets are reacting/moving at the moment as they going for the day I have surrendered for safety reasons and I am now out of my S&P-500 position. It has given me a profit of +30 pips and I more than happy with today’s total so far so I will not resume my chart watching after I return from lunch.

Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Thursday 4th May 2017

08:30am   Planning a morning here in the study catching up on emails and doing some chart watching ahead of a 4-day trip to Brighton. Any trades I have will be detailed below and already I can report a ‘short’ position entered earlier on my Brent Crude Oil chart – more details below.

Market Update:

The U.S. Federal Reserve kept their minimum lending rate on hold yesterday after their monthly 2-day meeting but reiterated their stance that the economy was performing well under the circumstances and this is increasing the speculation for a June hike. Bank stocks rose heavily after the statement although this was enough to help equity markets and the three major indices closed fairly flat although they are performing well in the futures market this morning.

The overnight Asian market closed mainly down after the FOMC meeting showed a fairly hawkish stance on rates plus a surprise fall in copper, nickel and zinc values of around 3% on the day hit indices – especially Australia where metal exports are a large part of their economy.  European markets have got off to a good start this morning with encouraging earnings reports helping equities and a good show from Macron in last night’s French Presidential debate ahead of this weekend’s vote.

Gold suffered another bearish day and has now reached its 200-day moving average so we could see a small reaction, it closed at $1237.90 last night and is down a further $1.05 at the moment but watch for potential bullish trading opportunities around this level.

Trading Diary:

08:35am    The position I mention above is on my Brent Crude 15-min chart and it’s a Master-The-Trend Strategy-B pattern with a 15 pip stop loss.

09:25am    Just come out of the Brent position as price action is suggesting that it has hit a small support area around the $50:25, I have exited at $50:29 giving me a score of +21 pips.

13:10pm    Nothing more to report regarding my trading exploits today, I am switching off my screens now until next Tuesday as I am away for a 4-day break although there will be my usual early morning Trading-Guidance and Trend-Line Alert emails to subscribers over the next few days.

Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Wednesday 3rd May 2017

07:45am   Uneventful day planned at home so any trades I have will be reported below.

Market Update:

U.S. markets ended Tuesday’s session mainly flat ahead of the FOMC’s interest rate statement this evening although the tech-focused Nasdaq index hit another intraday high at 6102.72 before falling back slightly by the close. The main driver of the index was Apple shares as traders pile in ahead of the earning’s report and after hours they did announce a slight rise in revenue & profits compared with the same quarter of 2016 and also revealed they have returned over $210 billion to shareholders in the past 5 years.

There is little expectation of a Federal Reserve rate rise although there are still expectations of a couple of hikes before the end of the year but U.S. markets could still drift sideways as traders sit on the sidelines.  The overnight Asian session ended mixed ahead of bank holidays in Japan, Hong Kong and South Korea and reports emerged traders were also wary of any surprises from the Fed over interest rates.

Gold traded virtually flat yesterday as it bounced off its 50-day moving average and now looks as though it could rise during today’s session – it is currently sitting at $1254.60 and the $1250 support still looks valid.  WTI Crude fell 73 cents yesterday and almost touched the $47.00 support level again although it has risen slightly during the overnight Asian session and is currently at $47:87, we could expect it to test the support again before the end of the week.

Trading Diary:

09:55am   I have just entered a ‘long’ position on my FTSE-100 15-min chart, it’s a UTB Price-Reversal pattern and my stop loss is a very reasonable 7 pips !

10:25am      Taken a quick +10 pip profit on my FTSE position,  I noted in my daily Trading Guidance Sheet this morning that the tendency for the index could be down today when looking at the daily chart so I closed off the trade before the bearish momentum gets going again.

10:40am   Back in a FTSE position, this time it’s a Master-The-Trend bearish trade. It’s a Strategy-A set-up with an 8 pip stop loss.

11:30am   Off out with some friends for a cycle ride, I keeping the stop loss at 8 pips on my FTSE-100 position as it is so low anyway but I’ll leave the target open at the moment.

13:25pm    I have just returned home and seen that my FTSE trade is just going sideways now so I have brought my stop loss upto break even to protect my day’s profit so far.

15:45pm    The markets are becoming quite volatile but the FTSE-100 is not really coming down as much as other instruments (S&P-500/Oil/Gold) so I closed off my position at +15 pips.

16:05pm    I am switching off my screens for the day – back early tomorrow for a morning’s trading.

 

Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Tuesday 2nd May 2017

10:15am   Slightly later than usual start to my trading day as I had an early morning cycle ride out in the sun but I am at home for most of the day catching up on emails and doing some chart watching from time to time so any trades I do have will be detailed below.

Market Update:

Quite a few markets were closed yesterday for the early May Bank Holiday but U.S. markets were trading and the main S&P-500 index closed the session slightly up (+4 points) and the Tech-centred Nasdaq had yet another record high.  The Dow Jones 30 index however showed a slight loss after volatile trading following falls in bank stocks when President Trump announced his team is looking into the possibility of breaking up the large U.S. banks during a Bloomberg interview yesterday.

There is not much news out of Asia this morning after many markets there were also closed for the Bank Holiday on Monday and had a fairly slow start as traders got back to their desks although there was high volume in the Australian ASX-200 after the Reserve Bank Of Australia held their minimum lending rate at the record low of 1.5%.  The European markets are experiencing a relatively bullish start to Tuesday’s session although the French elections are in focus for traders in some of the larger EU member states.

Gold had a previous support at its 20-day moving average but heavy selling yesterday has caused it fall below that short term support and it’s now heading straight down to the 50-day MA, it is currently sitting at $1255.44 and there is a strong possibility that it is now going to reverse once it gets to the next support at $1250 so watch the chart for trading opportunities.

Trading Diary:

11:15am  Just got into a ‘long’ position on my 15-min Brent Crude Oil chart, more details soon I have builders outside that are taking my attention at the moment.

11:30am    My Brent position is a Master-The-Trend Strategy-A set-up with a 15 pips stop loss.

12:10pm    Quick update  -  correction due to typo, I meant to write above that my trade is on WTI Crude NOT Brent Crude.

Anyway, out for an early lunch now and I’ve brought my stop loss upto -5 pips and I am placing my target at +20 pips.

14:05pm    In DAX-30 position and just noticed my WTI Crude trade has been stopped out at -5 pips while I’ve been out.

My DAX-30 position is a Master-The-Trend Strategy-B set-up with an 11 pips stop loss.

15:55pm    I have just closed my DAX-30 position with a +14 pip profit so I have a+ 9 pip running total so far today.  The index looks as though it could hit the 12,500 level later in the session but I am happy with my score and I have been indoors for too long – time for some gardening..

Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Friday 28th April 2017

08:35am   Back home after a short break, I shall be mainly here in the study today catching up on emails and doing some chart watching. Any trades I have will be detailed below.

Market Update:

Thursday’s market close saw U.S. equities ended mainly up although the bullish strength does seem to be waning slightly, the S&P-500 closed up 1.32 points at 2388.77 during a very narrow trading range yesterday and it is struggling to get back upto the strong resistance level at 2400. The tech-centred Nasdaq index faired better and closes at another record level ahead of a brace of major technology company earnings reports.  This optimism did not really spill over to the overnight Asian session where we witnessed Japanese and Chinese indices finished flat to negative amid South Korean/Chinese concerns over U.S. policy in the region although the Australian ASX-200 closed up slightly (+3 points).

Gold closed slightly down yesterday and is currently sitting on a fairly strong support/resistance line which is suggesting a small up move from this point – it is currently at $1265.40 and we could see a rise to the $1290 level and it is on track for the biggest one-week fall this year. I will send out a chart illustrating the support/resistance line to subscribers this morning, email me if you want one as well.

Crude oil has had a fairly ‘bumpy’ ride this month and U.S. WTI Crude is set to finish April below the $50 level – the price-action on the weekly & monthly charts are suggesting some further down moves even though there is traditionally higher demand in the U.S. as the summer season grows closer so stocks should fall. The U.S. benchmark is currently at $49:41 with further falls looking likely before the close of the month’s trading tonight.

Trading Diary:

10:10am    Nothing much to see on my collection of favourite charts so I am off for a cycle ride with some neighbours.

12:40pm    I have just got into a ‘long’ position on my U.S. WTI Crude Oil chart, it’s a Master-The-Trend Strategy-set-up with a 15 pip stop loss.

13:40pm    The WTI price is becoming more volatile as Friday’s U.S. trading session gets underway so I have come out of my position with a +20 pip profit.

14:00pm   The markets are still fairly skittish and fluctuating wildly and with today’s score bringing my monthly total to +415 pips I have decided to finish my chart watching for the day (and month)

I will be back in front of my screens next Tuesday after the Bank Holiday weekend break.

Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Wednesday 26th April 2017

08:10am    Just chart watching this morning as I am off to London after lunch for a few days, any trades I have will be reported below.

Day off from trading tomorrow but back here on Friday for the last trading day of the month.

Market Update:

U.S. markets were in a bullish mood yesterday with the Dow Jones 30 index closing up by 232 points on encouraging earnings news plus renewed hopes for Trump’s new tax policies and the tech-heavy Nasdaq ended the session at 6025, the first time the index has closed above the 6,000 level. The S&P-500 index closed at a one month high (2388) and is now looking at the 2400 level – the next resistance point which was hit at the end of February.

This optimism has spilled over to the overnight Asian session, most bourses in the region ended positively including the Japanese Nikkei-225 which was the best performer at +1.10%.  Gold fell during yesterday’s session by $12.50 amid equity buying and touched a small support/resistance level at $1260 before rising slightly, the daily chart is quite oversold so you could expect some buying as bargain hunters emerge today.

Wednesday is Crude Oil Inventories day in the U.S. and the expectation is for a very small fall in the stock situation which could result in a slight rise in the value of WTI Crude – the price is also oversold and currently sitting on its 200-day moving average so there could be a trading opportunity for bullish traders.

Trading Diary:

09:30am   Nothing much happening on my collection of favourite charts at the moment so I am off for a cycle ride in the rain.

11:20am     I have just entered a ‘short’ position on my UK Brent Crude Oil 15-min chart, it’s a UTB Price-Reversal pattern and my stop loss is just 14 pips – I do not envisage being in the trade for a long period of time as we have U.S. Crude Oil Inventories later this afternoon and with it the normal price volatility.  Interestingly, the same pattern has just occurred on the 30-min chart which usually makes it a stronger opportunity.

12:50pm   I am now out of my Brent position as I am off to the railway station in a short while. The trade managed +30 pips and although it looks as though it could fall further I am happy with that for the day’s profit.

As mentioned above, it’s a day away from the charts tomorrow for me but back here on Friday morning.

Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Tuesday 25th April 2017

08:15am  Back home after a short break away so I am planning a quiet day here in the study catching up on emails and doing some chart watching as well. Any trades I have will be detailed below.

Market Update:

U.S. markets were in an upbeat mood yesterday after early indications that corporate taxes will be cut quite substantially as part of Trump’s fiscal plan for the economy, the S&P-500 index ended the session +1.08% with the narrower Dow Jones 30 up by a similiar amount – we will know exact details in a planned news conference tomorrow.  The optimism from this and excitement from the first round of the French Presidential elections caused the overnight Asian trading session to close positively and Europe is also in an upbeat mood this morning.

As expected, Gold is feeling the pinch as money flows into equities in the past few days and geo-political issues take a back seat to good news. It ended Monday’s session flat at $1275.40 after staging a bullish price reversal off the 20-day moving average but is almost $5 off this morning as equities are on the march upwards again.#

Crude oil values are falling again and the U.S. benchmark WTI Crude has once again breached the $50 level and is sitting at $49.27 currently. It has been hovering around its 200-day moving average for a few days but has now fallen below the line which is usually taken as a fairly bearish sign.

Trading Diary:

11:25am   Just taken a ‘short’ position on my Gold 15-min chart, more details soon

11:40am   The above trade is a Master-The-Trend Strategy-A pattern with a 15 pip stop loss.

13:05pm   My trade reached +28 pips a few seconds ago so I am now out of the position.  Back in front of my screens after lunch.

15:10pm    Back home now but it’s too sunny outside to be stuck indoors so I am finishing my chart watching for the day – back here tomorrow morning.

Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Friday 21st April 2017

07:45am   Planning to be at home for most of today catching up on emails and Skype calls plus some chart watching as well – any trades I have will be detailed below.

Market Update:

U.S. markets closed higher yesterday on hopes of a major tax reform before the end of the year and fairly solid corporate earnings from major companies – the S&P index of the 500 largest U.S. companies ended the day 0.76% up at 2355.84 and the Dow Jones 30 was not far behind. This optimism carried over to the overnight Asian session with most indices also closing in positive territory despite yesterday’s terrorist activities in Paris that were designed to upset their upcoming Presidential elections this weekend.

The French CAC-40 has kicked off this morning in negative territory as expected but is still well above Wednesday’s close of 4986, it is currently trading at 5055.67, volumes will be lower than normal as the population goes to the polls tomorrow and traders adjust their positions ahead of expected market volatility on Monday.  Gold had a busy session on Thursday but ended slightly ahead on safe haven buying, it closed at $1281.70 last night and is lower this morning at $1279.12.

Crude oil markets had their sixth losing session yesterday with WTI Crude closing at $50.29 after hitting $50 support level once again earlier in the day, there are still concerns that OPEC production restrictions are not going to materialise together with a global oversupply that has dogged the market since 2015.

Trading Diary:

09:55am   Nothing to report on my collection of favourite charts so I am off for a cycle ride.

11:40am   I have just entered a ‘long’ position on my GOLD 15min chart – more details soon, some friends have just arrived for an early lunch and the burglar alarm has gone haywire for some reason..

11:50am    The trade I’ve mentioned above is a Master-The-Trend Strategy-pattern with a 20 pip stop loss.

12:15am    Just taken a quick +30 pip profit from my GOLD position as we are off out to the pub now for lunch.

13:25pm    Back home now and taken a ‘long’ position on my Brent Crude 15min chart, it’s a UTB Price-Reversal set-up with a 15 pip stop loss.

13:55pm   I am now out of the Brent Crude position, the chart is getting more volatile as the U.S. markets get underway. My score is +24 pips and I am happy with that so I am curtailing my chart watching activities for today and I will be back in front of my screens next Tuesday.

Today’s score of +54 pips brings my weekly points total to +37 pips and for the month of April I have accumulated +337 pips.