08:20am I was intending to do some chart watching here at home today but I am getting married on Saturday and there are some pressing errands mounting up so I am finishing my trading for the week now. I will send out an email to all customers in the next few days outlining my timetable for July with regard to trading/honeymoons etc.
Market Update:
U.S. equity markets closed down on Tuesday evening after tech stocks dragged the indices down – Google’s widely reported fine from the European Commission put a negative slant on trading plus there was also bearish sentiment after it was reported that the Senate will probably hold off on voting on a bill to replace Obamacare until after Independence Day holiday in early July. This negative outlook spread to the overnight Asian trading session where most bourses closed lower although the Australian ASX-200 did finish marginally up as Energy and financial stocks looked optimistic.
After comments yesterday by European Central Bank President Mario Draghi regarding future direction of monetary policy the Euro rallied – traders liked the fact that he is looking at tapering his financial stimulus package towards the end of 2017. This points at a positive outlook by the ECB for the European economy which gives hope to investors that the region may well be coming out of it’s long recession. The gradual rise in Crude Oil prices has slowed this morning as concerns over the continuing U.S. glut come to the forefront once again. It’s expected the Crude Oil Inventories will show a rise in stock when the figures are released in 7-hours time so watch out for a volatile reaction on the WTI and Brent charts. The U.S. benchmark WTI Crud eis currently sitting at $43:95, down from a high of $44:41 yesterday afternoon.
As expected, Gold has been falling over the past couple of weeks as money has flowed into equity markets instead but there seems to be a small resistance level forming on U.S. and European indices so there has been some buying of the yellow metal in the past day or so. It is currently at $1251:80 after rising from the $1240 support level on Monday.
08:15am Quiet day planned here at home catching up on emails and doing some chart watching – any trades I have will be reported below.
Market Update:
U.S. markets finished Monday’s session just in positive territory after bank stocks held the indices up as tech companies staged a decline although the Nasdaq understandably closed down 25.50 points at 5774.50 and futures are showing further declines this morning – currently at 5763.10. Major contributors to the fall were Facebook, Amazon and Google parent Alphabet after a fairly good run up in June.
The overnight Asian market finished mixed as traders await potential Central Bank revelations today, there are speeches by ECB, Bank Of England and Federal Reserve heads throughout today so markets generally could be ‘choppy’. So far the European bourses have got off to a negative start, no doubt partly due to Mario Draghi’s comments a short while ago where he defended his stance on loose monetary policy. He is concerned that an abrupt end to the ECB’s policy could result in recession across Europe which has not filled traders with optimism this morning.
Oil prices are rising this morning for after three consecutive bullish sessions on short covering by traders/investors. U.S. WTI Crude touched a low at $42.00 last week and has since rebounded well despite continuing worries over large global stocks although the 4hr chart is suggesting price may only get as far as $44.00 before further falls hit the market.
Trading Diary:
13:05pm I’ve had no interesting trade opportunities this morning so nothing to report, off for quick lunch now.
16:00pm Been back home for an hour and no trades to report so I am closing off my screens for the day, back tomorrow morning.
08:00am I will be watching my charts from time to time this morning before leaving at lunchtime for a 3-day trip to France. Any trades I do take will reported below in my Trading Diary and I will be back in front of my screens next Tuesday.
Market Update:
European stock markets closed mainly down yesterday as the falling oil price weighed heavily on equities together with ongoing Brexit concerns and this sentiment also carried across to the U.S. trading session as well. The Dow Jones 30 index closed down 57 points (-0.27%) last night as oil rebounded slightly from the session low of $42.01 and it has recovered further during the choppy overnight Asian session and is trading at $42.46. The Asian session closed mixed at best with the Japanese Nikkei-225 closing down on Yen strength after starting the evening positively but Chinese shares faired better with the Hang Seng Index ending 45 points up and the Shanghai Composite finishing almost flat.
As mentioned above, the falling oil prices is having an effect on world markets and further large falls were seen in the last 24 hours even though the weekly U.S. inventories number showed a slight decline in stockpiles. The OPEC deal to cut production still appears to be strong and members are keen to see the global oil glut reigned in as their countries economies are being badly affected by currently low price they get for each barrel of oil but increasing production from Nigeria and Libya who are no part of the production agreement is throwing the deal into turmoil. Plus there seems to be no let-up in U.S. production with new fields being recommissioned every week – we could see further price falls for WTI Crude to the $39:20 level as highlighted in my daily Trading-Guidance sheet this morning.
Trading Diary:
09:10am Just returned from a short cycle ride and I have just entered a ‘short’ position on my UK FTSE-100 15-min chart, it’s a Master-The-Trend Strategy-B set-up with a 17 pip stop loss.
12:25pm I am off in 30 minutes and my FTSE position is still trundling away, it has never really got into a decent profit (currently at -12 pips) so I will set a 20 pip target before I leave and leave the stop at -17 pips.
As mentioned above, I am now away for 3-days and will be back trading next Tuesday.
07:40am Planning to be here in the study this morning catching up emails & Skype calls plus some chart watching as well – any trades I end up taking will be detailed below.
Market Update:
Tuesday’s European trading session ended mainly down after Crude Oil prices fell fairly dramatically and Bank Of England Governor Mark Carney hinted that there will be no increase in UK interest rates for the foreseeable future. U.S. WTI Crude fell almost 3% during the day on concerns over the continuing global glut and today’s Crude Oil Inventories numbers will be closely watched by traders for further confirmation of this negative outlook. The U.S. benchmark touched the important $43.00 level yesterday and oil traders are now eyeing up a move towards $40 in the next week or so.
Both major U.S. indices closed down as well last night as energy stocks suffered from oil officially entering a bear market and investors booked some profits after Monday’s record move up. Several U.S. traders I have spoken to in the past 24hrs believe yesterday’s small fall in equity values is merely a small dip and there is still underlying strength in the market so watch for the S&P-500 rising up towards the 2450 level once again before the end of the week.
Gold unsurprisingly did not rise significantly yesterday even though equity markets fell, the selling pressure as mentioned above was mainly profit-taking but it did find support at its 200-day moving average and it has risen from that level this morning. Price hit a low of $1241.20 yesterday but has now advanced fairly well and is sitting at $1245.40 and is looking bullish this morning and we could see price touching the 20MA on the 4hr chart.
Trading Diary:
10:55am Just entered a ‘long’ position on my German DAX-30 15-min chart, it’s a UTB price-reversal set-up with a 13 pip stop loss. Off for a cycle ride in the sunshine now, I shall leave the target open and see where the price is when I get back.
12:20pm The DAX price has hit the 12750 level a couple of times now which could indicate a small resistance level so I have just closed off the position at +16 pips.
12:50pm I have just taken a ‘long’ position on my WTI Crude chart, it’ll be quite a quick trade I believe as we have the U.S. Crude Oil Inventories announcement in a few hours which will adversely effect the currently calm price-action. It’s a Master-The-Trend Strategy-B set-up with a 19 pip stop loss.
16:05pm I had to go out on a bit of an emergency a couple of hours ago so I set my trade target at +20 pips and let it run even though the Inventories number was due – the position at the time was barely in profit but I’ve just got back home to see the trade did eventually manage its target so my total for the day +36 pips.
07:55am Planning a quiet day at home today catching up on emails and Skype calls plus some chart watching form time to time. Any trades I take will be detailed below in my Trading Diary
Market Update:
U.S. markets hit further record highs yesterday with the Dow Jones ending up by 140 points as technology stocks surged, the Tech-centred Nasdaq closed up 1.65% as traders started buying the dip after they fell out of favour last week. This optimism did not quite follow on overnight during today’s Asian trading session where stocks closed mixed at best as investors await a decision on including Chinese A shares in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, this will be the fourth attempt at inclusion after failure for the first three times. The falling Gold price also dented investor confidence although the price has steadied slightly at the 200-day moving average after nine consecutive daily falls (I will send over a chart soon illustrating this occurrence)
Oil values are sitting at 7-month lows at the moment as OPEC try in vain to prop the price up against the strong will of U.S. Producers who readily increase their output as soon as they see a small decline in Middle East drilling. WTI Crude closed at $44:10 last night which is a level we’ve not seen since the 14th November last year although there has been a small rise this morning as bargain hunters emerge, the price could go as high as $44.70 today before more declines.
European markets are edging higher this morning after the German DAX-30 closed at a record high yesterday although the London FTSE-100 is slightly muted as traders await speeches by Chancellor Hammond and Bank of England Governor Carney in the next hour or so.
Trading Diary:
10:25am Just entered a ‘short’ position on my WTI Crude Oil 15-min chart, it’s a UTB price-reversal pattern and the stop loss is 12 pips. Also waiting to see if another UTB triggers on my FTSE-100 chart.
10:40am Now in the above-mentioned FTSE-100 trade, stop loss is a very reasonable 8 pips.
11:25am Both of my positions are in profit (one more than the other) plus I have just been invited out on a cycle ride so I have closed my trades off a few minutes ago. The scores are: FTSE-100 +11 pips WTI Crude +92 pips
13:15pm Just entered a ‘short’ position on my DAX-30 15-min chart, it’s a Master-The-Trend Strategy-B set-up and the stop loss is 19 pips.
15:05pm The Dax price has come down quite dramatically in the past hour or so demonstrating just how well my strategy-B pattern works but the sunny weather is beckoning me towards the garden so I closing off my screens and retiring from the markets for the day. This last trade has ended at +36 pips giving me a day’s total of +139 pips and if this temperate weather continues I am sorely tempted to spend the rest of the week outdoors away from my screens but I will update the situation tomorrow morning at 8am.
09:15am Nice relaxed start to my trading week as we went out for an early morning cycle ride in the sunshine but I will be at home this morning catching up on emails and doing some chart watching before some sailing this afternoon.
Market Update:
U.S. markets had another good week and the Dow Jones 30 index closed at a new high after posting a record 4-week continuous gains despite falls in some retails stocks after Amazon surprised with a $13.7 billion take-over of Whole Foods as they start making in-roads to traditional brick-based supermarket retailing. The overnight Asian trading session finished fairly well on the back of the U.S. performance last week with the Hang Seng performance standing out after closing up 298 points (+1.16%)
The developing European session this morning is dominated by the start of the UK’s Brexit talks which gets underway today although most indices are looking optimistic so far even though there is another suspected terrorist attack in London overnight. With rising equity markets over the past week, the Gold price is under pressure and it has now suffered eight consecutive daily price falls this month and is currently down today at $1250.59 and closing in on its 200-day moving average around $1244.00. Expect to see a small reaction once price reaches this point, possibly later this week.
Oil prices are also in the news at the moment, they have slipped once again this morning after a small rise during Friday’s session but we are seeing the same story as last year where OPEC members cut production to try to shore up the price but U.S. producers stepped in to take up the slack by opening further shale drilling sites. We can probably see how this story is going to play out – exactly as it did before and this does not look good for the price in the next few months so expect WTI Crude Oil to stay under the $45.00 level although we could see price testing that point soon.
Trading Diary:
13:25pm It’s been a quite morning for trading opportunities but I have just got into a ‘short’ position on my Brent Crude Oil 15-min chart, it’s a UTB price-reversal pattern and my stop loss is 15 pips.
13:35pm I am off out soon for the rest of the afternoon so I am setting my take-profit target at 20 pips. I will let you know what happens with the trade when I send out my ‘Nick’s Trades’ email later tonight.
08:40am I had expected to be indoors today doing some chart watching but an unexpected invitation came in last night so I am away soon for the rest of the day – no more trading now until next Monday morning.
Market Update:
The main market news from the last 24hrs is the U.S. Federal Reserve’s unsurprising decision to raise their minimum lending rate to 1.25% as Janet Yellen and the rest of the FOMC deem the U.S. economy to be healthy enough for a second rise this year plus more in pipeline. On the back of this news the Dow Jones 30 index closed up by 46 points (+0.22%)at the close although the wider S&P-500 dipped slightly at the end and finished down by 0.10% as energy stocks fell on the back of the declining oil price. Traders are expecting that OPEC is going to have problems in keeping members in line for the promised production cuts and WTI Crude Oil fell $1:27 by last night to $44:65 and is further down this morning at $44:55.
The overnight Asian trading session closed mostly down after the Fed’s rate announcement although the main Chinese index (Shanghai Composite) ended up by 2 points at 3,132.667. Falling oil prices were partly to blame for the negative sentiment plus many traders are skeptical that there is going to be another rate rise this year as conditions will not be as bullish as Janet Yellen is predicting.
The Gold price had a volatile session yesterday and closed down by $3.40 although the trading range for the day came in at $24.05 as investors brought money in and out of equity and commodity markets through the day. The price is marginally up this morning at $1261 and the daily chart is hinting at a small rise today.
07:55am I am planning to be at home for most of today and watching my favourite charts from time to time so any trades I find will be reported below through the day.
Market Update:
Markets today will be treading water as they wait for the Federal Reserve’s press conference this evening (UK time) where they will announce their interest rate decision. Expectations are for a small rise of 0.25% and that is priced into the market already so any deviation from that figure will produce a sharp move in equity and currency markets. The U.S. trading session ended positively with both the Dow Jones and S&P indices closing at record highs as technology stocks recovered recent losses and there is a certain amount of optimism for the expected rate rise as the FOMC will only vote for an increase if they see their economy is improving.
The overnight Asian trading session closed with most indices down although the Australian ASX-200 did post a slight 1.04% rise. There was no real enthusiasm for buying after Chinese industrial production and retail sales numbers came in broadly as expected and Crude Oil values dropped slightly on higher U.S. stocks. The American Petroleum Institute has estimated that U.S. stocks have risen this week which putt pressure on prices and WTI Crude fell almost 1% yesterday to $46:04 and has been trading sideways ever since, the U.S. benchmark is now at $46:01 and fairly overbought on the daily chart so we could see further falls.
Gold had a busy session yesterday but ended flat at $1266:20 and is slightly up this morning with a suggestion of further moves up, the price has reversed close to its 50-day moving average and is also oversold – watch for small bullish move today.
Trading Diary:
09:25am I have just entered a ‘long’ position on my S&P-500 15-min chart, it’s a Master-The-Trend strategy-B set-up with a 19 pip stop loss.
10:30am Nothing else to report on my collection of favourite charts so I am off for a cycle ride in the glorious sunshine. I have kept my stop loss on the S&P trade at 19 pips and left the target open as I will be back within the hour.
12:05pm Just returned and seen my trade is still trundling along, current score is +14 pips. I would think the markets will be quite volatile within the next few hours so unusually I will keep an eye on the chart every 10 minutes or so.
12:50pm The S&P price has started to become quite ‘jumpy’ and is retreating downwards so I have come out of my position to protect my profit - score +20 pips.
13:15pm The weather is too good to be indoors this afternoon so I am closing off my charts and I will be back here tomorrow morning.
07:55am Back in front of my charts today so any trades I have will be detailed below.
Market Update:
Markets are waiting on the Federal Reserve’s rate decision which will be out tomorrow evening after their usual 2-day meeting and U.S. equities closed in negative territory as technology stocks lead a move down. Consensus for a rate hike are high with expectations at almost 96% according to CME’s FedWatch tool. The overnight Asian session however was up mainly despite the disappointing U.S. close although Japanese tech stocks did try to pull the Nikkei 225 down unsuccessfully.
This morning’s European trading session has got off to a positive start despite continuing Brexit concerns, the OIl price rise is helping some stocks as Saudi Arabia has commented that they are committed to making ‘significant supply cuts’ despite Iran trying to push out as much crude oil as they can to make up for years of restrictions. Gold has slipped further as equity markets still display a certain amount of optimism, it challenged the $1270 support/resistance level once again yesterday but fell back once again, it is currently sititng at $1264.40 with further falls looking likely today.
Trading Diary:
08:45am I have just entered a ‘short’ position on my GOLD 15-min chart, it’s a Master-The-Trend Strategy-B pattern with a 14 pip stop loss.
10:35am The GOLD price has fallen quite well but it seems to have got stuck around the 1261.50 level so I have come out with a +21 pip profit.
10:45am The sun has come out now so I am turning off my screens and going off for a cycle ride.
13:20pm Just taken a ‘long’ position on my S&P-500 15-min chart, it’s a UTB price-reversal pattern with a 15 pip stop loss. I do not envisage being in the position too long as the market usually gets quite volatile at this time of the day.
14:45pm Eventually the price has become unfavourably volatile and quite ‘jumpy’ therefore I am out of my S&P position. The trade has managed +66 pips which gives me a day’s total of +87 pips which will do me for today I believe – back here tomorrow morning.
09:40am Later than normal start to my trading day as I have had some software issues this morning plus some friends have arrived for a 3-day stay. If I do have any trades today I will report them below.
Market Update:
The overnight Asian session traded sideways for most of the time after the U.S. markets closed largely ahead for the day. Traders across the water were back in an optimistic mood ahead of ex-FBI chief Comey’s appearance to testify in front of the Senate Intelligence Committee and current thinking is towards a less than controversial testimony, watch market reaction later but there could be some sharp moves especially on the Dow Jones 30 and S&P-500.
European markets are opening slightly up as investors await news from the ECB and early results tonight/tomorrow morning regarding the UK elections. Consensus is for the European Central Bank to maintain lending rates and also continue with their monetary stimulus package for a few more months as the region is still encountering difficulties as we have witnessed this month with Spanish and Italian banks in the headlines.
Crude oil has risen slightly overnight after further falls, WTI Crude fell nearly 4% yesterday to a 4-week low after U.S. Crude Oil Inventories showed a surprise build but bargain hunters emerged as the WTI Crude price touched $45:60 and it now stands higher at $46:06. Gold is fairly buoyant still although it did suffer from some profit taking yesterday after the price continually came up against the $1295 resistance level, it is trading at $1284:75 currently and we could see further falls towards the 20-day moving average.
Trading Diary:
14:10pm I’ve not been at home for most of the morning so no chart watching in the end and I am now out again for a few hours so no more to report as far as trading is concerned. I will be back in front of my screens next Monday.
