08:40am As it is Non Farm Payrolls Day once again I will not be in front of my charts today but I should be back on Monday depending how the weekend goes.
Market Update:
Once again I find myself reporting that U.S. equity markets have reached record highs and the main driver for this is still the perceived effect on companies bottom line in corporate America following President Trump’s tax reforms plus yesterday’s encouraging jobs data which will be confirmed today with the Non Farm Payrolls numbers.. The Dow Jones 30 index closed above 25,000 for the first time ever (+152.45 points) and the S&P-500 and Nasdaq also reaching record highs with IBM, Dupont and General Electric all rising over 2% by the end of the session.
The overnight Asian trading session was equally as optimistic with the Nikkei-225 index reaching a 26-year high at 23,714.53 (+2018.20) and the South Korean Kospi Index rose on good performances by Samsung and the car manufacturing sector plus news that North Korea is willing to talk about participating in the Winter Olympics. Gold is continuing its climb upwards, it finished yesterday’s session at $1322.40 (+$8.80) although profit taking has brought the price down to the $1317.50 level this morning as many traders are talking about the overbought nature of Daily and Weekly charts.
Oil prices are still been held up by OPEC production cuts global economic growth which fuels consumption and Brent Crude, the worldwide benchmark, has risen over 10% since the beginning of December although many commentators are unsure of this bullish momentum carrying on through January. Brent hit a 2-year high yesterday at $68.25 although signs of a bearish reversal are now emerging and we could see a move down to the support/resistance level at $67.00 in the next few days.
09:35am A slightly later start to my trading day as I have already been out on an 8-mile cycle ride. The plan today is to do some chart watching from time to time while catching up on emails and Skype calls. Any trades I take will be detailed below in my Trading Diary.
Market Update:
U.S. markets closed positively once again, the S&P-500 reached an all time record high of 2714.50 during Wednesday’s session and closed above 2700 for the first time after some positive economic data was released early in the day. There was some profit taking late into the session but this morning’s futures market has driven the price back upto yesterday’s high and is now sitting at 2714.65 helped by bullish oil prices and an optimistic energy and tech sector. The overnight Asian trading session was also bullish on the back of the U.S. close and the Nikkei-225 index had a good first session in 2018 after a 3-day new year holiday, it hit a level which has not been seen for 26 years. All other regions in the area closed ahead as well although none could match the Nikkei’s +2.55% advance.
Oil had another good session on Wednesday with UK Brent Crude finishing the day up by $1.41 at $67.92 on the general optimism for 2018 production restraints together with political troubles in Iran which could restrict OPEC output further. We are seeing some profit taking in the past few hours though as traders adjust positions ahead of the next drive upwards towards the historic support/resistance level at $69.00 (chart already sent to subscribers early this morning)
Gold is bucking it’s normal behaviour in correlation to equity markets, you would normally see opposite movements but the safe haven metal has been advancing since mid-December at almost the same pace as most indices. There was some sporadic profit taking late in yesterday’s session after reaching a high of $1321.30 and after some volatile trading during the overnight Asian session it is on its way up now and currently at $1313.45.
Trading Diary:
10:40am Just taken a ‘short’ position on my Brent Crude Oil 15-min chart, more details to follow.
10:55am The details of the above trade are as follows: Master-The-Trend Strategy-B Stop loss 15 pips
11:55am Now in a ‘long’ position on my DAX-30 15-min chart, another Master-The-Trend set-up but a Strategy-A pattern this time. Stop loss is 13 pips.
12:45pm Just got back indoors and seen that my Brent Crude position has been stopped out at -15 pips.
13:55pm I am now also out of my 2nd trade of the day – the DAX position has given me a profit of +55 pips so my overall score for the day is +40 pips. I am more than happy with the day’s outcome so I am switching off my charts and getting back outside where we re experiencing some very ‘adverse’ weather.
Tomorrow is Non Farm Payrolls Day so no trading for me so my total for the week stands at +170 pips and I will be in front of my screens on Monday or Tuesday, largely depending on how the weekend goes !
08:30am Good morning and welcome to 2018. My plan is to do some chart watching through the day while catching up on emails that have come in over the past few weeks while I’ve been away from my screens. Any trades I take will be detailed below in my Trading Diary.
Market Update:
Asian and U.S. markets rose on their first day of trading in 2018 and the S&P-500 and Nasdaq once again hit new intraday and closing highs. The Nasdaq was up by 1.5% to finish above the 7,000 level for the first time plus the S&P index closed up by 0.8% at 2695.79 and in futures trading this morning it is already higher at 2697.45 with the next target of 2747 in its sights. The overnight Asian trading session closed slightly up across the board again although with less vigour than was seen on Tuesday as it tracked the positive close on Wall Street, the Japanese Nikkei-225 index was not trading due to the three day new year holiday but in all other regions, traders seem to be optimistic about the start to the new year.
Gold is taking a breather this morning after hitting a 3-month high late in yesterday’s trading session. It touched the $1323 level for the first time since September last year before traders took some profits and drove the price back to the $1314 area where it is still trading at the moment and looking at the Daily Chart, we could see a fall towards $1305 which was the high for October 2017.
Oil has performed well in the closing stages of last year on the back of the OPEC production cut agreement between members and also some non-members such as Russia although oil traders I have spoken to in the past few days have expressed concerns that the promised cuts from Russia are not materialising at the moment as Putin is reluctant to forgo the tax revenues that are currently bolstering his ailing economy. Brent Crude, the international benchmark for the industry is $66.53 this morning, down from yesterday’s high at $67.26 and a move down to the support/resistance line at $65.75 is a possibility (chart soon for subscribers)
Trading Diary:
10:35am Nothing to see on my collection of favourite charts so far this morning so off for a 10-mile cycle ride.
11:35am Just got back and taken a late entry on a ‘long’ Master-The-Trend set-up which triggered about 15 minutes ago but as the price has dropped back slightly I have got in at a more advantageous level. It’s a Strategy-B pattern with a 17 pip stop loss.
12:25pm Just taken a quick +27 pip profit from my WTI position before I go out to lunch.
14:25pm Back home after an extended lunch out and I am now in a ‘long’ position on my U.S. S&P-500 chart. It’s another Master-The-Trend set-up on the 1-hr timeframe but a Strategy-A pattern this time and my stop loss is 23 pips. Not really sure how long I will be in the trade as the markets are quite volatile at the moment.
15:45pm I am now out of my S&P position with a +103 pip profit. The price has shot up very well over the last hour but the bullish momentum is slowing dramatically now. My total for today is +130 pips, a good start for the year !
15:50pm Switching off my screens for the day but I will be back early tomorrow morning.
08:45am This is my last ‘Market Update’ for 2017 as I start my Christmas holiday. Although I will not be back trading until Wednesday 3rd January I will still be sending out my daily ‘Trading-Guidance’ tomorrow and also a few times next week.
Market Update:
Global trading volumes across all markets are lower than normal and although there’s not a great deal of bad news around at the moment, equity markets are consolidating as traders adjust positions and book profits as the end of the year approaches. U.S. equity indices closed down last night after a choppy session where technology and utility stocks fell but energy companies gained by the close. There has been a big run-up in the past few weeks so there is a lot of consolidation and profit taking at the moment so we may well have seen highs reached this week already.
The overnight Asian trading session was also bearish on the whole with the South Korean Kospi Index falling 1.1% on tech stock declines although Chinese indices were a bright spot in a negative session, the Hang Seng index rose 0.5% as the official Chinese news agency said that the government will continue its structural reform in 2018. Gold was up yesterday during a positive session that saw the price reach its 200-day moving average ($1268:00) but it has staged a bearish reversal this morning and is currently trading at $1265:30.
Oil prices experienced a positive trading session yesterday as lower U.S. stocks were announced although a rise in production is going to affect values towards the end of this week. UK Brent Crude is sitting at $64:23 this morning but could reverse down to its 20-day moving average at $63:00.
08:25am Trading volumes on the markets that I usually watch are falling due to the impending Christmas holiday break so I will not be watching my collection of favourite charts any more now until the New Year. This will not affect my daily Trading Guidance service which will continue to the end of the week.
My trading score for December is +431 pips.
Market Update:
European markets closed mostly in negative territory yesterday as traders start winding down for the Christmas break and also await the outcome of the U.S. tax reforms which also affected sentiment during Tuesday’s U.S. trading session. The U.S. tech sector was also dragged down by a large fall in the Apple share price which fell over 1.1% after a note from Nomura Instinet downgraded the technology company. The Dow Jones 30 fell 37.45 (-0.15%) to 24,754.75 and the wider S&P-500 closed at 2681.47 (-0.32%)
The overnight Asian session was also treading water over the U.S. tax change outcome although we have now heard that the bill was past by the senate in the past few hours. Most bourses ended down although the Nikkei-225 index and the Australian ASX-200 closed slightly up on optimism in the financial sector in Japan and mining companies in Australia. There was no large buying enthusiasm for Gold yesterday and it closed largely flat at $1261:80 as it reversed at its 20-day moving average mid-session ($1264:00) although there is some limited buying this morning and is now at $1264:05.
Oil is looking quite bullish this morning as the North Sea pipeline outage continues to affect UK stocks and there is a presumption the weekly U.S. stocks is going to show a slight decline when numbers are announced later this afternoon. Both WTI Crude and Brent Crude were up slightly at last night’s close at $57:71 and $63:86 per barrel respectively.
08:15am I had envisaged being in front of my screens yesterday but a last minute invitation meant I was out all day but today’s plan is to be at home all day so any trades I find will be detailed below in my Trading Diary.
Market Update:
U.S. equity markets ended bullishly once again last night on optimism over Trump’s tax reforms and it’s effect on corporate earnings in 2018. The Dow Jones 30 index rose 140 points to finish at 24,792:20, it’s 70th record close of this year and this year is the first time in history that the index has risen over 5000 points in one year and the wider S&P-500 was equally as positive as it also rose by just over 0.50%. This bullish sentiment carried on through the overnight Asian trading session where most indices closed up although the Japanese Nikkei-225 did finish slightly down by 0.15% with tech stocks dragging the index down even though car manufacturers surged – Mitsubishi were up by +2.13%.
Oil markets traded mostly sideways during Monday’s session with the Brent Crude Oil’s 20-day moving average providing good support with the Forties Pipeline outage also helping prop the price up at the moment. The UK benchmark closed last night at $63:38 up 15 cents and is trading higher this morning at $63:60 although price action on the weekly chart is still suggesting a move down by the end of December.
Gold will usually travel in the opposite direction to the equity markets but it is currently bucking this trend and has risen consistently since the beginning of last week when it reversed at the $1236 level and is now approaching its 200-day moving average at $1268 (currently $1264:30) Current price action is suggesting a bearish reversal soon as shown in the chart I sent out to subscribers early this morning.
Trading Diary:
10:20am Nothing much occurring on my collection of favourite charts so I am off for a cycle ride with some neighbours.
12:10pm Volumes on the charts that I watch are down slightly and so far I have nothing to report in the way of trading opportunities – off for an early lunch now.
15:40pm Been a quiet afternoon on my charts but I have just taken a ‘short’ trade on my DAX-30 30-min chart, it’s a Master-The-Trend Strategy-B set-up with an 18 pip stop loss.
17:30pm Out of my DAX-30 position, the price has come down very well but seems to have stalled around the 13,200 level for the last hour so I closed the trade with a reasonable +65 pip profit.
08:40am Slightly later start to my “working” day after some technical issues earlier with computer hardware but my plans are to spend the morning here in my home office catching up on emails and do some chart watching at the same time. Any trades I have will be detailed below in my Trading Diary.
Market Update:
U.S. equity indices broke a 5-day winning streak to close slightly down last night after worries emerge that Trumps’ tax reform plans are going to take longer to implement than fist envisaged. The Dow Jones 30 fell 76:77 to close at 24,508:66 and the S&P-500 was down by a similiar percentage with the tech heavy Nasdaq falling slightly less but still ending in negative territory. This pessimistic outlook carried on to the overnight Asian trading session where all the major bourses closed down with the Hang Seng being the worst performer, falling 340.68 points (-1.17%) as major exporters in the region suffered bouts of selling as the U.S. Dollar became weaker.
Oil markets are fairly well supported at the moment with OPEC and Russia reiterating their resolve to restrict production well into 2018 and the Forties problem in the North Sea also contributing to lower oil supply. UK Brent Crude rose 53 cents during yesterday’s session to close at $63:34 and this morning it is continuing its march up towards the recent high at $65:80 although the weekly chart does suggest a move down now for the rest of the month.
As mentioned above, the U.S. Dollar is weaker at the moment which is boosting the Gold price, it has moved up from a low of $1236:30 at the beginning of the week to its current level of $1256:00 this morning and price action on the 4hr chart is suggesting further bullish moves into this afternoon.
Trading Diary:
09:10am Nothing much to see on my collection f favourite charts at the moment so I am off for a bracing cycle 11-mile ride.
13:05pm Now in a GOLD ‘long’ position, it’s a Master-The-Trend Strategy-A set-up with a 15 pip stop loss.
13:10pm Also in a ‘long’ position now and this time on my German DAX-30 chart. Same system but it’s a Strategy-B pattern with a 19 pip stop loss.
13:50pm The GOLD price is incredibly volatile at the moment and although it risen quite quickly it has started to come back down equally as fast so I’ve closed my position off to protect some of the profit. My score is +20 pips.
14:20pm The volatility continues as is quite normal for this time of the day and I am now out of my DAX-30 position now as well. My score is +27 pips giving me a total of +47 pips for the day and +131 pips for this week. Happy to finish my trading for the day, I will be back in front of my screens on Monday morning for the last few days of trading before the Christmas holiday break.
07:55am I am planning a quiet day at home today, catching up on emails and doing some chart watching from time to time. Any trades I take will be detailed below in my Trading Diary.
Market Update:
The U.S. Dow Jones 30 index posted another record close last night as the Federal Reserve felt enough confidence in the economy to raise interest rates for the third time in 2017, this time from 1.25% to 1.5% and it also raised its GDP forecast for 2018 to 2.5% from 2.1% previously. The index closed at 24,585.43, up 80.63 points on the day and it also hit a record intraday high as well although the wider S&P-500 index closed virtually flat at 2662.85 as the financial sector brought the average down.
The overnight Asian trading session ended subdued on the Fed’s announcement plus the Hong Kong Monetary Authority raised its rate from 1.5% to 1.75% and People’s Bank of China also raised their rates in line with the earlier news from the U.S. The majority of indices ended in negative territory although the Shanghai Composite did buck the trend towards the end and finished up 0.55% at 3290.17. In contrast to these rate hikes, there is not expected to be any movement today when the UK and the EU announce their decisions on interest rates in a few hours. The UK has seen wages stagnate and inflation rise above projected levels so Bank Of England Governor Mark Carney will want to keep borrowing costs low as the country progresses through the Brexit process. The European Central Bank is also expected to vote for a rate hold this month although the voting outcome will be keenly watched by traders for clues to future direction in 2018.
Oil prices are on the move this morning after lower U.S. Crude Stocks are announced for this last week, the country’s stockpile has reduced by 5.1 million barrels over the last 7-days to 442.99 million barrels which is the lowest level since late 2015. WTI Crude fell to a low of $56:53 during yesterday’s volatile session but is now slightly higher at $56:81 although UK Brent Crude is coming off the highs of Tuesday and is currently trading at $62:87.
Trading Diary:
11:30am Just taken a ‘short’ position on my UK Brent Crude 15-min chart, it’s a Master-The-Trend Strategy-B set-up and my stop loss is 24 pips. Off for a quick cycle ride in the sunshine now.
12:40pm Now out of my Brent position, the price has come down well but is now consolidating after hitting the $62:00 level — my score is +34 pips.
13:40pm I have now taken a ‘short’ position on my WTI Crude Oil chart, it’s on the 15-min timeframe and it is another Master-The-Trend set-up although a Strategy-A pattern this time. My stop loss is 16 pips.
14:35pm I have taken a quick profit on my WTI Crude position as the price action is quite volatile due to the U.S. trading session open,but happy with the +18 pip result. My overall score for the day stands at +52 pips which more than adequate so I am going to switch my screens off for the day.
07:50am Early start for me today as we are planning a London shopping trip after lunch. Any trades I find this morning will be detailed below in my Trading Diary.
Market Update:
Tuesday’s European trading session ending mainly higher with tech stocks leading the way with a rise of 1.6% by the close and later in the day the U.S. markets also finished the day ahead with the Dow Jones index of 30 leading companies ending the session at over 118 points ahead. This rise was down mainly to surges in Boeing and Verizon shares through the day and also a growing optimism that Republican lawmakers will be able to push through corporate tax reforms which is going to have a positive effect on companies balance sheets.
The overnight Asian trading session ended mixed at best with most bourses treading water as the Federal Reserve interest rate decision gets closer. The South Korean President Moon Jae-in began a 4-day visit to China so traders will be watching press announcements with interest to see if significant resolutions emerge regarding their rogue neighbour and its unpredictable leader. Gold is also trading sideways overnight after a volatile session on Tuesday as traders await the Fed’s rate decision, it is now at $1242:15, up from yesterday’s 5-month low of $1236:30.
Oil is also fairly volatile as traders grapple with conflicting news that’s causing large bearish and bullish moves. There are concerns over North Sea supplies being restricted by the failure of the Forties oil pipeline that brings crude into the UK for refining but on the other hand there is expected to be a larger draw down of U.S. crude stocks this week which should be confirmed later today by the weekly Crude Oil Inventories report. Brent crude has enjoyed a large rise this week from the Forties Pipeline news and pushed the price above $65 for the first time since 2015 but there was a fair amount of profit taking yesterday which brought the price down.
Trading Diary:
09:40am I have just taken a ‘short’ position on my GOLD 15-min chart, it’s a Master-The-Trend Strategy-B set-up with a 17 pip stop loss.
10:50am I’m now in a ‘long’ position on my S&P-500 15-min trade and it’s the same set-up as my first trade today. My stop loss is a heady 16 pips !
12:55pm Just been stopped out of my S&P-500 position at -16 pips. I am off to London quite soon so keeping my stop loss on the GOLD trade at -17 pips to give the position some space to move as the U.S. markets start trading, not an ideal time to be a position but unfortunately the price did not come down as quickly as expected during the morning session – many traders are sitting on their hands today to see what happens later with U.S. interest rates so volumes are down slightly.
I will be back this evening so will report back then.
20:10pm Back home now and seen that my GOLD position was stopped out earlier at -17 pips so my overall score for the day came in at -33 pips.
08:00am Back in front of my screens after a long weekend break, any trades I do take will be detailed below in my Trading Diary.
Market Update:
Despite a terror-related incident in Time Square, New York yesterday morning, investors were still bullish and drove the S&P-500 and Dow Jones indices to record highs during Monday’s trading session. The S&P-500 closed at 2659.99 (+0.32%) after energy and tech stocks rose around 0.7% with a rise on Crude Oil helping the energy sector. The overnight Asian trading session was not as optimistic however with the Hang Seng trading negatively for most of the night and closing down by 132.63 points at 28,832.66 although other major markets did manage to finish just in the black. Trading volumes were slightly down on normal levels as traders await the U.S. Fed’s decision on their interest rate later in the week.
Oil prices were given a boost yesterday and Brent rose 1.5% and hit its highest level since June 2015 after reports that the Forties pipeline needs work and is being closed down for around 3 weeks. WTI Crude jumped on the back of this news and closed at $58:00 last night, up 73 cents on the day. Gold is slipping once again as money continues to pile into equities, the safe-haven commodity finished Monday’s session at $1241:80, down $5:80 on the day. The price is now well below its 200-day moving average and is now developing quite a strong bearish trend and I can see now credible support level until $1200.
Trading Diary:
10:15am I have just taken a ‘long’ position on my UK FTSE-100 chart, more details soon.
10:30am The trade I’ve taken on the FTSE is a Master-The-Trend Strategy-A set-up with a 21 pip stop loss.
10:50am Now in another Master-The-Trend Strategy-A position, this time it’s on my UK Brent Crude Oil chart and my stop loss is slightly higher than my normal amount at 35 pips which reflects the way the price action is today after the Forties Pipeline news yesterday.
13:10pm I’ve just closed my Brent Crude position, it seems to have reached a high now and my stop loss has been covered so I am happy with my +38 pip profit. Off for a late lunch now, keeping my FTSE trade stop loss at 21 pips as it hasn’t moved up much in the past few hours.
16:25pm I have been waiting for the FTSE price to hit 7500 and it finally did so a few minutes ago so I am now out with a +27 pip profit as the price has retreated back from the ‘Big’ number now. Today’s overall score is +65 pips.
